Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Yu Darvish
- Spencer Strider
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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-195)
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. May has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his 8 starts this season. Despite having great stuff, he has just 32 Ks in 47 innings of work. He should see an increase in Ks against MIN but will it be enough to push him to or above a K per inning? Gray has made 8 starts so far this season and he has allowed 7 total runs to this point. His K numbers are definitely up even after striking out just 1 in his first start. The Dodgers offer plenty of power but he is yet to allow an HR in 2023.
MIN 5-star plays: Alex Kirilloff
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ San Diego Padres (-230)
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am really shocked to see a total of 9 in this one. The Padres are absolutely ice cold overall at the plate (Tatis and Soto aren’t). Even with Tatis and Soto added in, the team is hitting .177 with an OPS of .578 over the last 7 days. Darvish should be in a great spot against this KC squad so right now I have to think it goes under the total unless Hernandez has turned into John Danks.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Pratto, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Peyton Battenfield
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This Cleveland lineup is going to be extremely weak (more than likely) as Ramirez was put on the bereavement list yesterday and then Josh Naylor left last night’s game early. Does that mean I really need to consider Clevinger? I really do see a route to a lack of scoring in this one but Battenfield is a guy that I think gives up plenty of hits so maybe he helps wake up this White Sox offense?
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Bradish has been pretty bad at home and he’s been hit better by LHBs while giving up more power to RHBs. That doesn’t sound like a great thing going up against this Angels squad. Canning has not been sharp in his return from surgery but he was a highly rated prospect at one point. He’s just making way too many mistakes and this BAL lineup is one that can definitely take advantage.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mickey Moniak, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
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New York Yankees (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. What a tough match-up to figure out. We know how great Cole is and while the Blue Jays have shown power against him, he’s still been solid against them and if Vladdy misses today, it might be just enough to want Cole exposure. Bassitt has been throwing the ball really well to begin May and he has been dominant against RHBs but a guy like Judge being on fire is very problematic.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins (-130)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a match-up of two young SPs with bright futures. We also have a match-up between two pitchers that have some walk issues right now. The big thing with Cabrera is that the Nationals are so damn weak against RHPs overall. The Marlins have just 7 HRs against LHPs in 2023 and 5 of those have been hit by Jorge Soler who is rocking an ISO of .607 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses, CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Bello has given up an HR in every start this season and both sides of the plate are hitting over .300 against him. The RHBs have been the ones showcasing the power against him. The total is pretty high but the weather isn’t the greatest for hitters. It’s going to be pretty cool in Boston tonight. We have seen this park allow some runs even when it’s cold and windy so I can understand the total. Not sure I want to trust either SP at this point.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .150 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets (-125)
Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming
Mets – Kodai Senga
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is another game that has better pitching weather than hitting weather tonight. The temp is expected to be in the mid-50s with wind blowing in. I want to like the TB side because Senga walks way too many guys while having an HR issue. The Mets are struggling, rocking a team ISO of .090 over the last week. Fleming isn’t exactly a beast on the mound so maybe they wake up? They have been at their best against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
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Atlanta Braves (-165) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Happy Spencer Strider day to all who celebrate! I don’t think it’s necessarily a slam dunk match-up for Strider but his K ability is just so damn strong. Seager could make his return for TEX and that would help lengthen their lineup. Texas can definitely strike out against RHPs but they can also hit some HRs. The Braves are one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball but Eovaldi has been an absolute stud the last few starts so what’s going to give?
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. I am really torn when it comes to Coors today. I mean we get a day game in the best park for hitters but we have offenses that just aren’t that great against pitching that could surprise in this spot. Aside from Senzel and Doyle, there isn’t a lot to love from a hitting standpoint. Ashcraft has absolutely dominated LHBs so far in 2023 but his K numbers are much weaker than I thought they’d do. I think Gomber could surprise in this spot.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Senzel
4-star plays: Matt McLain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Brenton Doyle
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers (-170)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Rich Hill
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Rodriguez is on an absolute tear this season and he gets the Pirates when they are pretty damn cold at the plate. Should be a great spot for him to continue getting it done. Rich Hill could be decent against a struggling DET offense but I do like Baez-Rogers against LHPs, quite a bit. Hill hasn’t been all that bad this season so maybe we see a pitcher’s duel and the game finish to the under.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Jake Rogers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Liberatore has been crushing at AAA and now he takes on an offense that has had their struggles against LHPs. He wasn’t very good at the MLB level last year but he shut down this MIL squad in his second start. Burnes is always a conundrum as he hasn’t been as dominant this year but he’s always capable of it. He has been strong against this STL roster, rocking up a near 33% K rate.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer, Owen Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Astros – JP France
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. LHBs are 0 for 17 with 1 walk against France so far at the MLB level. Smyly is capable of surprising against any offense and I think he could tonight or he could allow some runs similar to Steele last night. I keep waiting for Abreu to break out and tonight could be one of those “welcome to Houston” performances. Yordan is always in play, no matter what hand the pitcher throws with.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-165) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
A’s – Luis Medina
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Medina has been smacked around by RHBs at the MLB level so far, so it’s really hard to want to use him. Arizona is just one of those stacks that I love to use even though the team isn’t really that good. They just tend to pop up with strong DFS performances with their power/speed abilities. Nelson has been beaten up by LHBs so far and OAK has a couple of guys that I like with some power upside.
ARI 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel
4-star plays: Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JJ Bleday, Ryan Noda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-125) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Giants – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We could definitely see some runs in this one. We also could see the Giants offense continue to struggle a bit (a majority of the guys are cold over the last week). Some of Walker’s numbers are skewed by a back-to-back start stretch where he allowed 5 and 8 runs in 7.1 innings of work. Stripling has allowed multiple HRs in back-to-back starts and I could see Harper or Schwarber getting to him today.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Casey Schmitt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Houston Astros
- Seattle Mariners
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nick Senzel, Reds
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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