Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We start the new week off with a couple of early games followed by a 10-game main slate, so there’s something for everybody today. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a wide range of pitching options today, ranging from pitchers in good spots with good strikeout upside like Kelly, to some in not-so-great spots but who still carry a solid KSCORE (like Greene), to others that will probably see the showers early like Keller and Rucinski. Cash games ought to be pretty easy, but with six pitchers topping the 500+ KSCORE range, we have several options for tournaments as well. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with our early games, starting with the Mets and Nationals. We’ll see Peterson and Corbin on the mound here, and with them a 9.0 total. Vegas likes the visitors here, and it’s hard to argue against that as they look to have the upper hand on all fronts.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso
GPP note – Good matchup for the righties, though Corbin has been strict to lefties, so going LvL may only work if the other bats can give Corbin an early exit (which is very possible).
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Thomas/Meneses
Nationals 4 star plays – Call, Abrams
GPP note – Peterson has been allowing more contact and power to lefties, so don’t be afraid to try some LvL bats here.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Next up we have the Angels and Orioles, with Ohtani and Rodriguez on the mound. An 8.0 total, Vegas likes the visitors here too, though this one is a lot closer than I would have expected with Ohtani on the mound. Perhaps Baltimore can crack the code and get to him?
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Thaiss, Renfroe/Drury
GPP note – Good spot for bats on either side of the plate, and lefties only have a slight advantage over the righties here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins/Santander/Rutschman, Mateo
GPP note – Attacking Ohtani isn’t exactly fun, though he is allowing some power to righties.
Main slate
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Yankees and Blue Jays. Brito and Manoah will get the start, though as of this morning, we don’t have any input from Vegas. Given the overall matchup, I like the home team better, but we’ll see if Vegas agrees with me or not.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo
GPP note – Manoah isn’t allowing a whole lot of power, but is allowing some good xwOBA to both sides, so you can try bats of any hand here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman, Varsho, Merrifield
GPP note – Brito is allowing a lot of solid contact and power to righties, and this lineup is full of them, so big stacks of them are in flavor here.
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Next up we have the Mariners and Red Sox, with Kirby and Houck on the mound. A 10.0 total, this park once against hosts the game with the largest non-Coors total, so it’s bound to be a source of popular bats. Perhaps one of these starters can go the distance and upset these big implied totals?
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Kelenic, Crawford
GPP note – Traditional splits tend to work best against Houck, so you can keep it simple here with the lefties.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida, Duran
GPP note – Kirby has been solid but is allowing some power to lefties, so taking some of them against him here wouldn’t be a terrible idea.
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Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Peralta and the Brewers will take on Flaherty and the Cardinals next, complete with an 8.0 total. The Cards return home after beating up on the Red Sox last night, so we’ll see if they’ve left anything in the tank for today. If not, it could be a good spot for Peralta to have a fourth solid outing in a row.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez
GPP note – Flaherty’s struggles continue, and he’s allowing a ton to lefties. Be sure to take at least some mini-stacks of them against him here.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar, Arenado, Edman
GPP note – Though not as quite of a good spot as Milwaukee, Peralta is allowing some power to lefties so you can attack him from that side (or take some of the power righties and hope for the best).
Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers
Moving on we have Morton and the Braves set to take on Ragans and the Rangers. Another game with no current Vegas insight, I think we’ll see Atlanta be the favorite here, as they look to have the better matchup on all fronts. I don’t think the Rangers will go quietly, so if they can get by Morton, it might be a good game to stack on both sides.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Riley/Murphy, Albies
GPP note – Ragans has some reverse splits working against him in the form of a lot of allowed xwOBA/wOBA to lefties, so use them to help with ownership. Otherwise, most of these bats are hitting left handed pitching quite well.
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien, Lowe
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Heim, Garcia
GPP note – Morton is allowing good power to lefties and decent xwOBA to righties, so you can go after him from either side of the plate here.
Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros
Our second Texas game will be between the Cubs and Astros, with Taillon and Valdez on the mound. We move down to our lowest total on the day at a 7.5, which seems fair if both pitchers can show up and do what they are capable of doing. However, with how Taillon has looked in his last couple of starts, I don’t have my hopes very high for him.
Cubs 4 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ/Suzuki, Swanson/Gomes
GPP note – Valdez is a tough target, but he has been allowing some power to lefties, so it’s not the worst thing to take one or two of them against him here (or you could try larger contrarian stacks since several of these bats are hitting lefties well).
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Tucker
GPP note – Taillon is allowing good xwOBA to lefties and decent power to righties, so bats from either side are worth a shot here.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
It’s time for our Coors game, this time between the Reds and Rockies. Greene and Seabold will get the nod here, along with an 11.0 total. There are some possible weather concerns at hand here, so be sure to keep an eye on the sky since there’s bound to be plenty of ownership coming from this game.
Reds 4.5 star plays – India, Fraley
Reds 4 star plays – Steer
GPP note – It’s Coors and Seabold allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so do what you will.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon, Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon, Diaz
GPP note – Greene can be a wildcard (for better or worse for him), so it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to hedge here.
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Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with my Royals and the Padres. We’ll see Keller and Wacha as the starters here, and Vegas is giving this one a 9.0 total. The best I can say about KC is that Wacha was having some issues and a handful of their bats may be able to do something, but I sure wouldn’t want to be Keller today. The San Diego offense is sure to be a popular pivot from the Coors game, so be sure to try some goofy stacks if you want to help with ownership.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Pasquantino, Witt
GPP note – It’s hard to really love these bats, but Wacha isn’t too far removed from allowing some good power to both sides of the plate, so small stacks aren’t off the table here.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto, Machado/Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Carpenter
GPP note – This looks like a good place for the Padres to tee off, and Keller allows equally solid xwOBA/wOBA to both sides of the plate.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have Kelly and the Diamondbacks taking on Rucinski and the Athletics. Another 9.0 total, this game feels a lot like the previous one, just with the home/away roles reversed. The top-end bats are nearly as expensive, but there are at least a few more discounted bats down low that we can take a look at with the Arizona offense. As for the A’s, it’s certainly not a great spot, but I could see one or two of them having a decent enough day.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll/Walker/Marte
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Gurriel, Perdomo
GPP note – Lots given up to lefties and a low strikeout rate makes this a great spot to go, and you can get some of these bats at a nice discount.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Langliers
GPP note – Kelly isn’t a super great target, though he is allowing some power to righties. I wouldn’t go overboard here, but some exposure could be useful.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Brogdon/Falter and the Phillies will take on Wood and the Giants next, and we get an 8.5 total for this one. Vegas has this game split closely down the middle with a slight nod to the home team, and while I do agree, I think I like the Giants just a touch more than they do (mostly due to the pitching matchup). The Phillies certainly have the bigger names on their bats, but the Giants profile well here at a discount, so don’t forget about them today.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Castellanos/Turner, Schwarber
GPP note – Wood isn’t allowing much power (only one home run all season, and that was back in spring training) and can rack up some strikeouts in a hurry when he’s on, so this may not be as good of a spot as his lower salary may indicate due to a possibly lowered ceiling for these bats.
Giants 4 star plays – Wade/Estrada, Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – I find this spot to be much better than what the Phillies get, so consider hedging here to get a possibly better matchup at a nice discount.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Twins and Dodgers, with Lopez and Syndergaard on the mound. A 9.0 total, this game probably would have been closer to a 7.5 a few years ago, but today’s Syndergaard just isn’t what he used to be. Perhaps he’ll find something and we’ll get a pitcher’s duel here, but I don’t think that’s in the cards tonight.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler/Correa, Gallo
GPP note – Syndergaard can’t seem to get anything going and is allowing good power to both sides of the plate, so he’s fair game to attack once again.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman, Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith/Muncy, Heyward
GPP note – Lopez allows good power to righties, so try to shuffle in some of them with the lefties you’ll be taking.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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