Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/24:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Spencer Strider
- Sonny Gray
- Taj Bradley
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New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Johny Brito
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Twins recently lit up Brito like his name was Gerrit Cole (Twins dusted Cole last year for 5 HRs in just a couple of innings). Most people are going to jump onto the Twins after that but I might look to give Brito another chance. It’s cool in Minnesota and I’ve seen enough of him to believe that a bounce back makes a lot of sense. Gray has been great for the Twins and the Yankees are striking out a ton right now.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-165)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Nothing is jumping off of the page for me with the White Sox so it’s interesting that they don’t have a lower team total. Jimenez has hit a couple of HRs over the last week and he has had success against Bassitt. Lynn has been horrendous to begin the season as he’s getting hit by everybody, especially LHBs. I was all about Varsho yesterday and he came through in a strong match-up for LHBs of TOR so I am going to go with Belt tonight.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (-125) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I actually am really torn on what to do with this game. The Reds have been FAR better at home so far this season while the Rangers haven’t been great against LHPs but have been scoring runs over the last week. I think Lodolo has more upside than Eovaldi but he is far more inconsistent at this point. I do think that people are going to blindly go with the Rangers again, so that makes me want to get on the Lodolo train. We are going to have to take a look at the weather in Cincinnati to see if the ballpark will play even smaller than it is.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Jonah Heim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-115) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Based on previous history with the SPs in this game, I would have predicted a run total of about 9 or 9.5 in this game. This makes me really interested in both offenses, despite the 8 total. I know Sale came out last game and was dominant and we were all over him but this doesn’t feel like the same kind of situation. The Red Sox blew up yesterday which is annoying because it probably increases their stack ownership.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs.
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St Louis Cardinals (-120) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I talked about Montgomery in my pitching video this morning. I think he’s going to carry ownership but on DK, his price is just too high for a guy that doesn’t offer a ton of K upside. Now, I understand that SF has been striking out a lot but that number has been coming down since they went to more of a platoon splits lineup against LHPs. Cobb is a much more interesting option for GPPs, in my mind.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .151 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians (-205)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Overall, the Guardians have been pretty weak against LHPs but they have a couple of guys who have either hit Gomber well or traditionally been strong against LHPs. Quantrill hasn’t been great this season and he has had an issue with RHBs so Cron becomes really interesting as he’s been really strong away from home and against RHPs this season. Blackmon has hit Quantrill well and we generally prefer LHBs in Cleveland.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-278)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I know that Strider is going to be popular tonight but I don’t think he’s going to be popular enough. I think he breaks his streak of 9 K performances with a double-digit K night. The Braves are in an interesting spot as they have all kinds of power but Cabrera is a young arm with some dynamic upside. He’s actually been really dominant against LHBs so far this season. Acuna is swiping bases faster than I can swipe on Tinder at this point. I might include him in my Dinger of the Day pool.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .142 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Henry gave up 10 HRs in 47 innings at the MLB level last year. He has given up 3 in 4 starts at the AAA level this season. Overall, he has struggled but he did make 4 starts in 2022 that resulted in just 1 run at the MLB level. He’s just not a big K guy and that’s a bit worrisome in a game with a 10 total. Keller has leaned slightly to reverse splits the last couple of seasons at the MLB level but not enough to make me say avoid LHBs, especially guys like Carroll and Marte.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays (-155)
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rays – Taj Bradley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am not betting against TB right now (even though I did against Berrios, of all people). They are undefeated at home to begin the season and Taj Bradley has looked like the top pitching prospect that he was hyped up to be. The Astros are, shockingly, not that great overall against RHPs this season. This is a team that I am used to seeing smack around RHPs with their lineup. Ride the hot hands for the Rays while mixing in some of their “cooler” bats because hitting is contagious.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls
GPP Note: Team ISO of .253 against RHPs.
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-205)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Ken Waldichuk
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Man, what a world it is to see Jose Suarez sitting as a -205 favorite. He has been absolutely atrocious to begin the season and this could be his last start. I know the A’s don’t have a ton of power but I think the top of the lineup could cause some issues for Suarez with how well Ruiz has hit LHPs while Diaz has come up and hit them well, too. Spoiler alert, Mike Trout is the leader in the clubhouse for my Dinger of the day call. He has smashed Waldichuk and has an HR in back-to-back games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz, Jordan Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Milwaukee Brewers (-160)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Brewers – Collin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Rea started out the season great and then he came back down in his 2nd start. I think he’s somewhere between those 2 in this one with upside to be strong against a very weak DET squad. I think he has enough of an arsenal to make guys like Greene and Carpenter worse plays than the two guys below. The Brewers are definitely far weaker against LHPs and that’s why we used Jordan Montgomery against them previously, despite them putting up runs. I think Boyd is in a similar spot but I don’t love the way he’s throwing the ball at this point. I will use him in some builds but I don’t have a strong feeling about it.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Haase, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Joey Wiemer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Angels
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Arizona Diamondbacks/Kansas City Royals (whichever is projected to be lower owned)
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Trout, Angels
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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