UFC 286 DraftKings Picks Preview Usman Edwards 3

UFC 286 DraftKings Picks Preview Usman Edwards 3

UFC 286 DraftKings Picks Preview Usman Edwards 3

 

 Favorite Fighters

• Mokaev $9700
• Usman $8900
• Wood $8600

Two Dogs Worth a Second Look

• Gordon $6900
• Gaethje $7400

A parlay of The Week:

• L. Klein -195
• M. Vettori -260
• Wood -175

+229

 

 

UFC 286 DraftKings Picks Preview Usman Edwards 3

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Kamaru Usman $8900 vs. Leon Edwards $7300

The line to Impact Lean: Under 4.5 -175

I see Usman finishing this fight in the first three rounds. Nothing against “Rocky” Edwards, but he is attempting to beat a generational talent in contention for GOAT status. Usman scored 98 DK pts in a loss to Edwards and had five td with 10 minutes of control time. Don’t get me wrong, Edwards is a live dog in this spot, but this fight reminds me too much of the Nunes Pena rematch. That said, Usman will be a core play for me in my 150, and I have my finger on the lock trigger as there is too much value here for me to resist.

Usman has scored 98.5,113.5, 103.7, and 104 in his last four UFC fights, with other scores prior being as high as 156. Therefore, I am all over Usman at $8900, and I am highly confident he will regain his belt this Saturday.

UFC 286 DraftKings Pick: Usman $8900 (Core) 

UFC 286 Prop Betting: Usman KO/TKO/DQ +1800

UFC 286 DraftKings Picks Preview Usman Edwards 3

Muhammad Mokaev’s $9700 vs. Filho’s $6500

The line to Impact Lean: Under 2.5 -135

Poor Filho, you show out in DWCS and get stuck with Mokaev as your first official UFC fight! That is some bad luck, but seriously, Mokaev or pass here. He is a rising star built up as he is only 22 years old. Mokaev landed a submission in his debut against Cody Durden, then took down Charles Johnson 12 times on his way to a decision, then beat Malcolm Gordon with another offer. Mokaev is looking like a rare talent, and I need to see the newcomer Filho being able to knock him off.

That said, it will be Mokaev or pass in this fight, and he is my other core play of the slate.

UFC 286 DraftKings Pick: Mokaev $9700 (Core) 

UFC 286 Prop Betting: Mokaev +1400 R2 KO/TKO/DQ

Rafael Fiziev $8800 vs. Justin Gaethje $7400

The line to Impact Lean: Under 1.5 +145

High chance of violence. This one is straightforward, McKinney will get it done in R1, or there is a good chance he loses. I love betting against McKinney after R1 because his pace can only be kept brief. That said, he has scored 126, 96, & 104 in his last three wins. The brothers are both talented for Ismael, and he has not lost since 2014! However, at a closer look at his resume, it is apparent that he has not seen anyone close to the skill of McKinney. That said, the under 1.5 is -230, which makes me love the odds of one of these fighters scoring well in a win and landing themselves in the optimal lineup. The lean is McKinney, but I will also elevate my Bonfim ownership.

UFC 286 DraftKings Pick: Gaethje $7400

UFC 286 Prop Betting: Gaethje Decision +750

Sneaky Play 

Joanne Wood $8600 vs. Luana Carolina $7600

Wood is 1-5 in her last six and faces Luana Carolina, who is 4-2 in her previous 6. This fight is sneaky in that it can go under the radar with ownership and end up in an excellent DK score with either fighter who wins. Although Wood appears to have the worse recent record, it is also essential to consider the quality of competition. Her competition in her last four fights has consisted of the following:

• Grasso 13-3
• Santos 18-1
• Murphy 14-4
• Eye 15-8

Given this is women’s MMA, I should be saying to poor all the money on the dog, but the favorite here and possible leverage here is too much to pass with elevating ownership in my 150. Also, in her last three wins, Wood has scored 108, 96, and 89. At $8600, she could easily wind up optimal with any of those scores. Conversely, if Carolina can get the striking going, she could keep her distance and volume her way to a decision. She scored over 100 on DK only once but required a KD to get there, which she has not achieved since 2019.

Therefore, the pick is Wood, which will be wood or pass for tournament leverage.

UFC 286 DraftKings Pick: Wood $8600 (At least 15% over the field) 

Other Picks on the Card:

• Jack Shore $9500 vs. Makwan Amirkhani $6700
  • Shore $9500 or pass
• Juliana Miller $9400 vs. Veronica Hardy $6800 
  • Miller $9400 (Fading the fight, limited ceiling)
• Jake Hadley $9300 vs. Malcolm Gordon $6900
  • Gordon $6900 (Field level ownership on both fighters)

 

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UFC 286 DraftKings Picks Preview Usman Edwards 3

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Reference:

Cheat Sheets.

Research Station

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