Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/22:
Mar 19, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves (15) is doused with water bottles after the game against the Orlando Magic at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Den -7.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate coming off of a big game against the Nets. He also dropped 82 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and should be able to do whatever he wants again in this one. I don’t have any issues with Jamal Murray either, he isn’t as hot as he was a couple of weeks ago, but he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are similar options at similar price tags, I would probably prefer Gordon in cash while going to Porter Jr. in GPPs due to the volatility, but that’s splitting hairs, I don’t have a problem with either of these guys. Then we can round this team out with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as a roster-filling piece, but he’s not a guy we need to prioritize by any means. From the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma ended up missing yesterday’s game, and sounds like he has a legit sprained ankle, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again in this one. We saw Corey Kispert get the start over Deni Avdija and would think they roll out that same lineup, but Deni is still going to get minutes off of the bench. Below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 17.8% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 33.3% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.1% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Corey Kispert – 14.6% usage rate; 0.64 fpm
- Kristaps Porzingis – 29.3% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 15.0% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
Kristaps and Beal are my favorite options in a nice matchup against the Nuggets. Avdija did look good even off of the bench last night and makes sense in all formats as well. Gafford’s minutes become more secure when any of Kuzma or Kristaps are out and they’ll need his size to deal with Jokic down low.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, Daniel Gafford
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -2.0
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle had a massive game last time out and dropped 57 actual points against the Wolves and the price tag hasn’t really moved. That said, this is a much more difficult matchup and should be a slower-paced game. Jalen Brunson bounced back nicely as well and is a few hundred dollars too cheap, but again, a tough matchup on a big slate. Immanuel Quickley is too expensive with Brunson back in there, so we can jump off of that train for now. Guys like RJ Barrett and Josh Hart are probably secondary options due to the volatility but the minutes are solid on both of them and I would have no issues using either of them as a roster filler. Finally, Mitchell Robinson is having some issues with the coaching staff but his price tag is too cheap, and should play good minutes yet again if you need a cheaper center option. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler has been much more consistent as of late with at least 47 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Bam Adebayo has been in much better form over his last few games as well, all the minutes will be there as well, and makes sense in all formats. Tyler Herro is a bit too volatile for me to love in cash games but makes plenty of sense in tournaments. Then the rest of this team is more secondary/GPP options than anything on a big slate with guys like Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Kevin Love.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Kevin Love
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -9.0
We’ll start with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton comes in as questionable after missing their last five games. I’m going to operate under the assumption he’s out again, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Andrew Nembhard has been getting the start at point guard with TJ McConnell coming off of the bench. Below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Andrew Nembhard – 19.3% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 20.2% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Bennedict Mathurin – 28.2% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Aaron Nesmith – 17.4% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.3% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 19.0% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
Bennedict Mathurin ended up starting over Jordan Nwora last time out and played good minutes. He’s going to look good again in this one assuming he’s back in that starting lineup. With Nwora moving to the bench, he’s probably a bit overpriced but the minutes should still be there and we know he can light it up in short run. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam has been in much better form over his last three games with at least 44 DraftKings points in three straight. He hasn’t been in great form since the All-Star break, with that said. He’s more of a GPP option for me, but the matchup is elite against this Pacers team. Fred VanVleet has looked great and the matchup is just as good, he’s going to be a guy I want to go back to as well in this one. Jakob Poeltl has been extremely consistent as of late and will make sense in all formats. Scottie Barnes got banged up last time out but doesn’t sound like it’s all that serious, so I would expect him to play and play all those minutes we’re used to seeing from him. Then guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. make sense as filler pieces to round out this team.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet
4-star play: Andrew Nembhard, Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Nesmith, TJ McConnell, Jordan Nwora, Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -2.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry had a rough first half last time out but you’re never out of it with him as he got hot in the second half to salvage his day. He gets an elite matchup against a Mavs team that isn’t playing any sort of defense and any time he’s under $10k he’ll be a guy I want to get exposure to. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have seen their price tags come down to a more playable range with Curry back in there. I would prefer getting to Klay over Poole still even with the pricing difference, but Klay has just been in better form… again, the matchup is elite. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Donte DiVincenzo should remain in the starting lineup until Andrew Wiggins returns but hasn’t been in the best form as of late, we can probably do better on a big slate. Finally, Kevon Looney has been in much better form as of late with at least 27 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic and Kryie Irving both come into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to watch that Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re both back just due to the spread in this one. They’re the main pieces I would want on this team and would look like elite options in all formats… I wouldn’t expect either of them to see any sort of minutes limit. Christian Wood has been floating around that 30-minute mark in four of his last five games and is a guy that is going to look great anytime those minutes are there… but Jason Kidd hates him, so he’s a GPP-only option. Then guys like Josh Green and Tim Hardaway are fine GPP flyers but take big hits in their rates with these guys back in there.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Christian Wood, Josh Green, Tim Hardaway
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -3.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been in elite form with at least 54 DraftKings points in nine straight games, he’s going to be up there with the other spend-up guys as a great option. James Harden had a tough game in 47 minutes last time out but has been one of the more consistent fantasy producers over the last couple of months and is a guy I want to go back to assuming he plays, as he does come in as questionable yet again. The price tag on Tyrese Maxey is too high for me to go back to with Harden in there even after a big game filling in for him last time out. Then Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton are fine roster fillers in GPPs if you land on them. They’re in a similar boat as Maxey, however, they had big games with Harden out last game and their prices have adjusted for that… all that said, if Harden ends up sitting again, we can go right back to these guys. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine bounced back nicely last time out and is now averaging 45.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Sixers this season. DeMar DeRozan has been on a heater and kept it rolling last time out. He has at least 47 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, so I have no issue going back to him in this one. Then the last of the “big three”, Nikola Vucevic, makes sense as a secondary option but will have his hands full with Embiid down low. Guys like Patrick Williams and Patrick Beverley are GPP roster fillers to round out this team.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Patrick Williams, Patrick Beverley
Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -12.5
Starting with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. has been playing all of the minutes he can handle as of late but has seen a slight price increase. This game will be fast-paced and I think he looks like a solid option in all formats. Jalen Green is in a similar boat but comes at a nice discount to Porter Jr. and is a guy I like going to here as well. Alperen Sengun has been floating in that 30-40 fantasy point range and is a fine secondary option in all formats. Then guys like KJ Martin and Jabari Smith are solid secondary options, Smith has shown a nice ceiling as of late. From the Grizzlies, it sounds like they’re going to get Ja Morant back in this one but they’ve floated some rumors that he might start out by coming off of the bench. Keep an eye on the starting lineup, if he’s staring I think we can go right back to him here, but I don’t think I would want to go to him off of the bench. He’s too cheap if he’s starting in his normal role in an elite matchup. We can immediately jump off of the Tyus Jones train with Ja back in there, he’s just overpriced. Dillon Brooks is suspended in this one due to all the technical fouls he has this season, so guys like Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson probably see a few more shots and make sense as GPP options, but they’ll lose more usage than they gain with Ja back in there. Then Xavier Tillman is a solid mid-range center option if you land in that price range.
5-star play: Ja Morant (if starting)
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson
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San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -18.0
Starting with the Spurs, we don’t have an injury report on them and this team is pretty impossible to break down until we know who’s in and who’s out… so I’m going to leave them for our Breaking News Feed – check out that page for a breakdown once we have more news on them. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been awesome over his last few games and should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. I do worry about a blowout in this one and Giannis is a guy I want to play in close games where he’ll get closer to his minutes’ ceiling. He’s on the lower end of those other spend-up options strictly due to the potential blowout. I don’t love the price tag on Jrue Holiday but he’s a fine tournament option if you want to get exposure, but it continues to climb. Khris Middleton is a solid option at this price tag as well, but again, I just don’t trust this game to stay close enough. Then, Brook Lopez continues to be one of the more consistent center options in the league, I’m fine going back to him in tournaments as well while guys like Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton are tournament guys in MME.
5-star play: SAS TBD, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: SAS TBD, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: SAS TBD, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton
Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 241.5
Vegas Spread: Min -4.0
Starting with the Hawks, Dejounte Murray ended up missing their game last night and would assume he comes into this one as questionable as well, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but for the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. The matchup is solid and we know the minutes will be there if he’s active. Trae Young is obviously my preferred option, he dropped 59.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and looks like a great option yet again. Clint Capela is an awesome per-minute producer but the issue with him is always the minutes. He’s a perfect GPP option due to that, but if you land on him in cash or single entry I’m good with it, we saw just that last night. Onyeka Okongwu has actually outproduced him lately but is in that same boat as Capela. John Collins has been more productive since the coaching change and makes sense here as well. De’Andre Hunter isn’t a guy we need to prioritize but makes sense if you land on him as a last piece in. The same can be said for Bogdan Bogdanovic to round out this team, all of these wings/guards would see a boost if Murray is forced to miss again. From the Wolves, it sounds like Karl-Anthony Towns is going to play tonight but will more than likely be on a minutes restriction due to missing their last 51 games… he won’t be a guy we can play tonight, but worth noting that he’s finally returning. Anthony Edwards ended up missing their last game and has now missed their last few with what feels like a semi-serious ankle injury. I’ll operate under the assumption that he sits again here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Below is how this team operates with Edwards off of the court this season:
- Mike Conley – 18.9% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Taurean Prince – 20.5% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
- Jaden McDaniels – 18.0% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Kyle Anderson – 15.3% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Rudy Gobert – 18.2% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
Prince had just a stupid game last time out, he shot 8 for 8 from beyond the three-point line and if people are going to chase that, let them… I’ll be underweight on him again in this one. Then Jaylen Nowell returned last time out and should see a nice boost off of the bench if Edwards is forced to miss again as well.
5-star play: Trae Young
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, John Collins, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu, Taurean Prince, Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -4.5
Starting with the Blazers, they’ll be without Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons again in this one, so I would imagine to see guys like Cam Reddish and Trendon Watford back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court this season:
- Damian Lillard – 40.6% usage rate; 1.81 fpm
- Cam Reddish – 22.1% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Matisse Thybulle – 7.1% usage rate; 0.55 fpm
- Trendon Watford – 19.0% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Jusuf Nurkic – 28.0% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
The obvious guy here is Dame, those rates are insane, and is a guy that is going to look like an elite spend-up option tonight. Nurkic had a big game last time out as well and is a guy I have no issue going right back to the well with. Watford returned to the bench last time out but still saw close to 30 minutes, but I would imagine he’s back in that starting lineup with Simons out here as well. Then guys like Reddish and Thybulle are fine secondary options. From the Jazz, they’ll be without Jordan Clarkson while Lauri Markkanen comes in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here and would look like a nice option in all formats considering the matchup. Talen Horton-Tucker only saw 21 minutes last time out and the price tag is way up, if Markkanen is back in there I’ll probably be underweight but he’s been good as of late. Walker Kessler has been one of the more consistent centers since the break and makes sense in all formats here, the Blazers bleed fantasy points to opposing big men. Then Kelly Olynyk looks great as well coming off of a big game last time out.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Trendon Watford, Jusuf Nurkic, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Reddish, Matisse Thybulle, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ochai Agbaji
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.0
Starting with the Suns, they’ll be without Kevin Durant for the next few weeks but does sound like he’d play if it were the playoffs, so some hope for Suns fans… but they’ll also be without Deandre Ayton as well. With Ayton out they’ll have to go to Jock Landale or Bismack Biyombo as their starting big man, whoever starts will look like a great value option while the guy coming off of the bench would be a fine GPP pivot. Devin Booker bounced back nicely last time out and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Chris Paul is in that same boat and is a guy I like going to anytime he matches up with his good buddy LeBron (even though he’s not playing). Then guys like Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig make sense with Durant out and should pick up some additional minutes. From the Lakers, Anthony Davis will continue to look like a nice spend-up option with LeBron out as well. He sees a boost with Ayton out for the Suns as well, he should do whatever he wants in the paint. D’Angelo Russell is a fine option but not a guy I think we need to prioritize, he’s more of a secondary option. Austin Reaves dropped a 50-burger last time out and has seen his minutes trend in the right direction, I think he’s a solid secondary option as well. Then guys like Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley are fine secondary options to round out the team and this slate.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Jock Landale/Bismack Biyombo (whoever starts), Anthony Davis
4-star play: Jock Landale/Bismack Biyombo (whoever doesn’t start), Chris Paul, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
NBA Lock of the Day: Damian Lillard (DK – $10.5k; FD – $10.3k)
At this point in the day, I think Dame is my favorite spend-up option on the slate. The Blazers will be without Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant in this one and Dame has a 40.6% usage rate and 1.81 fantasy points per minute with them off of the court and the matchup is elite against this Jazz team. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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