Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/20:
Mar 19, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) smiles after scoring a basket during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -1.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for their next few games which will open up usage and minutes for the backcourt. Andrew Nembhard has been getting the start at point guard with TJ McConnell coming off of the bench. Below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Andrew Nembhard – 19.5% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 19.9% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- Jordan Nwora – 21.6% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Aaron Nesmith – 17.4% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.2% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 18.9% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
I probably won’t be on the Bennedict Mathurin or Chris Duarte train as much as they deal with injuries but are fine tournament options if they’re able to give it a go. Jordan Nwora has been starting with Haliburton out and is seeing good minutes with at least 31 DraftKings points in four of his last five. I like going right back to the well with him again, assuming he’s back in that starting lineup. This is an elite matchup against a bad Charlotte defense, so this team is going to look great tonight. Speaking of Charlotte, they’ll continue to be without Mark Williams which will lead to Nick Richards starting at the five. He struggled with Embiid last time out and then they got the doors blown off which is why his minutes came down, but I would have no issue going back to him in this one. Terry Rozier’s production has come down a bit over his last two as well but gets a nice bounce-back matchup in this one, he’s going to be a nice option in all formats. The price tag on Kelly Oubre has come down and is a guy I like going right back to here as well, I’m pretty much throwing out that game log for the Hornets last time out. Then guys like PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward are fine wing options to round out the team.
5-star play: Andrew Nembhard, Jordan Nwora, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Aaron Nesmith, TJ McConnell, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, Nick Richards
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bennedicat Mathurin, Chris Duarte, Kai Jones
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -8.5
Starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine came down to Earth a bit last time out, but has been the most consistent producer of these main guys. He’s averaging 44.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Sixers this season. DeMar DeRozan has been on a heater, however. He has at least 54 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is a guy that goes on streaks, so I have no issue going back to him in this one. Then the last of the “big three”, Nikola Vucevic, makes sense as a secondary option but will have his hands full with Embiid down low. Guys like Patrick Williams and Patrick Beverley are GPP roster fillers to round out this team. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been in elite form with at least 56 DraftKings points in five of his last six games but did have a down game in this spot last time these two played. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. James Harden ended up missing their last game for rest purposes but should return in this one. He has been one of the more consistent fantasy producers over the last couple of months and will look like a nice option in a tough matchup here. The price tag on Tyrese Maxey is too high for me to go back to with Harden in there even after a big game filling in for him last time out. Then Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton are fine roster fillers in GPPs if you land on them. They’re in a similar boat as Maxey, however, they had big games with Harden out last game and their prices have adjusted for that.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Patrick Beverley, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Tyrese Maxey
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -8.5
We’ll start with the Wolves, we’ll need some news on this team as Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert come in as questionable. Edwards was seen in a walking boot which makes me think he’s going to be on the doubtful side of questionable here. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out while Gobert plays, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Below is how this team operates with Edwards (and Towns) off of the court this season:
- Mike Conley – 17.8% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Taurean Prince – 21.1% usage rate; 0.69 fpm
- Jaden McDaniels – 16.6% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Kyle Anderson – 15.9% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Rudy Gobert – 18.8% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
Prince is the only guy in the starting lineup that gives me a little pause, but the minutes will be there at a dirt cheap price tag. We should see some additional run for guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jordan McLaughlin off of the bench as well as MME punt options. Anderson is never a sexy play but he’s been putting up real numbers as of late and will be a nice option again here along with Conley, McDaniels, and Gobert to round out the Wolves. From the Knicks, the price tag on Julius Randle is nice in this one and we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle, I like going right back to him in all formats. Jalen Brunson returned last time out to play 32 minutes and didn’t look too rusty, I would have no issue going right back to him here as well. Immanuel Quickley is too expensive with Brunson back in there, so we can jump off of that train for now. Guys like RJ Barrett and Josh Hart are probably secondary options due to the volatility but the minutes are solid on both of them and I would have no issues using either of them as a roster filler. Finally, Mitchell Robinson is having some issues with the coaching staff but his price tag is too cheap, and should play good minutes yet again if you need a cheaper center option.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson
Deeper Value: Taurean Prince, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
GPP Sleeper: Taurean Prince, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, RJ Barrett
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -2.5
Starting with the Mavericks, Kyrie Irving returned last time out but Luka Doncic has been out for their last few games and both guys come into this one as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption Irving plays again while Doncic remains out, but we will need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Kyrie had a great game last time out and will look like a nice option in all formats yet again as he will run this offense with Luka out. He has a 28.6% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute with Luka off of the court this season. Irving returning moved Jaden Hardy back to the bench and makes him pretty close to unplayable as he saw just five minutes. Christian Wood has seen his minutes trend in the right direction and if he’s going to play around 30 minutes again here, he’s going to look like an elite option in all formats. Tim Hardaway Jr. came off of the bench last time out and is more of a secondary option in this one. Then guys like Josh Green and Reggie Bullock are fine roster fillers. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant remains out while Jaren Jackson Jr. comes in as questionable, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go, however. Below is how this team operates with Morant off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 19.5% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 28.1% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 25.3% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – 28.4% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Xavier Tillman – 15.4% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
The matchup is great against this Mavs team that isn’t playing any sort of defense right now. All of the starters are firmly in play here, guys like Bane and Jones are top options while Jackson shows a massive upside but always comes with a level of uncertainty.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Christian Wood, Desmond Bane
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr., Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Green, Reggie Bullock, Dillon Brooks
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Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -11.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry has seen his production move in the wrong direction since a big game against the Bucks, that said, his price tag has reflected that. He’s at $10k flat on FanDuel and sub-$10k on DraftKings and will look like a great option in all formats tonight. People will be worried about a blowout but this Warriors team is awful on the road, I like him quite a bit here. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have seen their price tags come down to a more playable range with Curry back in there. I would prefer getting to Klay over Poole still even with the pricing difference, but Klay has just been in better form. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Donte DiVincenzo should remain in the starting lineup until Andrew Wiggins returns and is in solid enough form, he helps roster construction with that SG/SF eligibility. Finally, Kevon Looney has been in much better form as of late but does come in as questionable, I wouldn’t have a problem with him if he’s able to give it a go here. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. has been playing all of the minutes he can handle as of late but has seen a slight price increase. This game will be fast-paced and I think he looks like a solid option in all formats. Jalen Green is in a similar boat but comes at a nice discount to Porter Jr. and is a guy I like going to here as well. Alperen Sengun has been floating in that 30-40 fantasy point range and is a fine secondary option in all formats. Then guys like KJ Martin and Jabari Smith are solid secondary options, Smith has shown a nice ceiling as of late.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.0
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been in elite form as of late with at least 60 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. The Jazz defense doesn’t scare me either, he’d going to look like a great spend-up option on this slate. De’Aaron Fox is more of a GPP guy for me, we know the ceiling is there but has shown some volatility as of late. Kevin Huerter ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable, if he’s able to go I would imagine he’s not limited but if he misses I would expect to see a minutes boost for guys like Malik Monk and Terence Davis who had a massive game last time out. Then guys like Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray make sense as secondary GPP options in all formats as well. From the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson will remain out in this one while Lauri Markkanen comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go, below is how this team has operated with Clarkson and Sexton off of the court over the last month:
- Talen Horton-Tucker – 29.3% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Ochai Agbaji – 17.4% usage rate; 0.68 fpm
- Lauri Markkanen – 30.9% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Kelly Olynyk – 15.9% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Walker Kessler – 10.8% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
The only guy I don’t like from this starting lineup is Agbaji, he went to the PJ Tucker school of offense and is out there running cardio… you won’t see me on him, but the rest of these guys look awesome in an elite matchup against a Kings team that wants to play fast and loose.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Walker Kessler
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, Terence Davis (if Huerter is OUT)
NBA Lock of the Day: Jalen Green (DK – $6.8k; FD – $7.5k)
The price tag on Jalen Green is obviously better on DraftKings, but he’s more than a good option on FanDuel as well. This is a fast-paced matchup against a Warriors team that is playing terribly on the road this season. Green is playing nearly 40 minutes nightly and has been in great form over his last few games. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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