Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/6:
Jan 4, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) dribbles the ball Indiana Pacers during the third quarter quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -1.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Blazers, Damian Lillard came down to Earth a bit last time out but has been in good form and gets an elite matchup against a bad Pacers defense. Jerami Grant has been in good form as of late as well and would be a guy I don’t mind going back to, but the price tag has certainly come back up, not to mention he comes in as questionable as well, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. Anfernee Simons is more of a tournament option for me at this price tag while Dame is healthy, he’s a guy that needs the ball in his hands to really hit his ceiling. Jusuf Nurkic got into quick foul trouble last time out which held him to just 25 minutes but this is a nice bounce-back spot for him. Then I have no issue with Josh Hart as well, he should continue to play all the minutes he can handle. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton bounced back in a big way last time out with a 50-burger against the Sixers. I love going right back to the well with him, his price tag has fallen too far. The matchup is tougher for Myles Turner but he has at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight games. Buddy Hield has been much better over his last few games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one as well. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith would be GPP guys for me on a big 12-game slate like we have on tap tonight.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.5
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan is playing all the minutes he can handle again but has shown some volatility relative to his price tag over his last few games. That being said, it’s quite the ceiling with at least 67 FanDuel points in two of his last five games. Then Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine have looked much better over their last few games and the price tags are back in the lower $7k range again, except on FanDuel where Vucevic is priced a bit too high for my liking. Outside of these main three guys, it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmo, and Coby White are fine options, but I would hope we get better value open up on this slate. Then, this probably isn’t a slate where I talk myself into Andre Drummond, we should get much better value tonight. From the Sixers, they’ll be without Joel Embiid in this one. We saw PJ Tucker start at the five for them last time out and would expect more of the same with Montrezl Harrell as the primary backup. Below is how this team has operated with Embiid off of the court this season:
- James Harden – 33.7% usage rate; 1.50 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 23.9% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- De’Anthony Melton – 22.6% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Tyrese Maxey – 29.7% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Montrezl Harrell – 18.4% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
I don’t really want to be all that interested in Tucker as a starter but Harrell looked great off of the bench and would make sense as a GPP value option. Harden had a disappointing game last time out… yes, I know he had 50 DraftKings points, but with Embiid out we’re expecting the moon. Lastly, we saw Tyrese Maxey re-enter the starting lineup and play 37 minutes, it’s safe to say he’s off of any sort of minutes restriction and makes plenty of sense at this price tag.
5-star play: James Harden, Tobias Harris
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic (DraftKings), Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Montrezl Harrell, De’Anthony Melton, Nikola Vucevic (FanDuel)
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -3.5
Starting with the Knicks, they’ll continue to be without RJ Barrett which should mean Immanuel Quickley will remain in the starting lineup. He’s been awesome with at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is playing all the minutes he can handle. Julius Randle is averaging 63.2 DraftKings points per game over his last five games, I don’t necessarily love the matchup but he’s finally getting those minutes we were used to seeing in his first year as a Knick, right around 40 per game as of late. Jalen Brunson was a core play for me last time the Knicks were on the slate and has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute with Barrett off of the court this season. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson will make sense as a secondary tournament option. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam came down to Earth last time out against the Bucks but along with Randle, he’s playing right around 40 minutes per game as of late and will look like a great option yet again here. He dropped 76.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Fred VanVleet was a guy I was interested in last time out due to his natural ability to dominate the Bucks for whatever reason. He’s going to look good again in this one and he didn’t really have anything flukey last time out which is intriguing. Scottie Barnes has been in incredible form with at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is too cheap here for the minutes he’s playing. OG Anunoby has been very consistent as well, while Gary Trent Jr. would be more of a tournament option to round out the team.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Immanuel Quickley, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr.
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -4.0
Starting with the Nets, Kevin Durant has been great as of late and gets an elite matchup against this Pelicans’ defense. He has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and makes sense as a spend-up option on this slate. The same can be said for Kyrie Irving, he’s been much less volatile as of late and gets an equally as great matchup. Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton are in a similar price range and are guys I don’t have an issue with getting to here, their price tags have come down as of late. Then guys like Royce O’Neale and TJ Warren will be fine secondary GPP options to round out this team. You can probably throw Seth Curry in that group as well after back-to-back nice games. From the Pelicans, they’re going to be without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson as he was diagnosed with a hamstring injury. Below is how the team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- CJ McCollum – 31.3% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 25.8% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 15.7% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Herb Jones – 15.0% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Naji Marshall – 19.9% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
I would expect to see Naji Marshall slides into the starting lineup with Zion off of the court and plays pretty well while he’s in there, he makes sense as a mid-range option. The big boost goes to CJ McCollum who we’ve seen dominate with Ingram and Zion off of the court this season, he’s going to look like a nice option in an elite matchup.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall
Deeper Value: Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, TJ Warren, Seth Curry, Herb Jones
Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Okc -1.0
Starting with the Wizards, they’ll be without Bradley Beal again in this one… who is cheapening his trade value by the day with all these injury issues. I would expect to see Corey Kispert slide back into the starting lineup, but we should minute increases for guys like Deni Avdija and Will Barton off of the bench as well. Below is how this team operates with Beal off of the court this season:
- Kyle Kuzma – 29.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 16.7% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Kristaps Porzingis – 29.8% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
- Monte Morris – 17.2% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Will Barton – 20.3% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Rui Hachimura – 23.6% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
I don’t have a ton of interest in Kispert just due to the fact that he’s not a big usage guy or has a ton of per-minute production. The matchup is great against a terrible Thunder defense, so guys like Kristaps and Kuzma should do whatever they want again in this one. Speaking of the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned last time out and played well, he’s going to look like a strong option in all formats yet again here at a cheap-ish price tag. Josh Giddey had his worst game in quite a while and it wasn’t even a lineup killer, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Lu Dort is probably more of a tournament option here, we kind of know what we’re getting out of him at this point in the season. They’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevski for potentially the rest of the season and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl doesn’t have a timetable to return… and they added one more to the list, Jaylin Williams will be out here as well. They’re quickly running out of frontcourt options, but it’s still going to be a flip of a coin as to who sees the minutes here. I would expect to see a healthy dose of Kenrich Williams, Mike Muscala, and Darius Bazley as options and I would have interest in whoever starts of the three as a value option.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: Kenrich Williams, Mike Muscala, Darius Bazley – whoever starts of the 3.
GPP Sleeper: Deni Avdija, Will Barton, Rui Hachimura, Lu Dort
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -11.0
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball continues to look great relative to his price tag. He has averaged 51.5 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and the matchup is nice as well here against a fast-paced Bucks team. Kelly Oubre will continue to be out in this one while Gordon Hayward comes in as questionable… if he’s forced to miss we would likely see Jalen McDaniels back in the starting lineup who has looked great filling in for these two over their last few games. Terry Rozier is priced right where he should be right now, he has at least 32 FanDuel points in back-to-back games after being in a bit of a slump. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and PJ Washington are nice options who have been in good form as well. Washington has a 23.7% usage rate and 0.98 fantasy points per minute with Oubre and Hayward off of the court this season. From the Bucks, they’ll continue to be without Khris Middleton in this one, so we’ll need to see who they move into the starting lineup. Last time out we saw Jrue Holiday (he was inactive against the Raptors) come off of the bench as he worked his way back from illness, but would expect he’s back in the starting rotation here. Below is how this team operates with Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 39.4% usage rate; 1.72 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 25.5% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.7% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 21.8% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Pat Connaughton – 15.6% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 15.3% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
Giannis has been incredible form, he has at least 78 FanDuel points in three of their last four games and is an elite spend-up option yet again in this one. Assuming Holiday is back and not limited, I don’t hate going back to him again here, the matchup is elite against a terrible Hornets defense.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels (if starting for Hayward), PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee
Deeper Value: Grayson Allen, Mark Williams
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, PJ Washington
Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Sas -2.0
Starting with the Pistons, Killian Hayes returned last time out and looked great, he has a nice price tag and a nice matchup while looking good filling in for Cade Cunningham this season. The price tag on Bojan Bogdanovic feels like it’s right where it needs to be but is a fine GPP guy due to his ability to get hot from three-point range. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Jaden Ivey has been extremely volatile this season which will keep him as a tournament option for me here. Jalen Duren should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and has performed well since entering the starting rotation. Then Marvin Bagley will miss the next few weeks which will solidify the minutes for a guy like Isaiah Stewart. From the Spurs, Devin Vassell will be out for the foreseeable future which means we likely see Romeo Langford back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Vassell off of the court this season:
- Keldon Johnson – 31.5% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Tre Jones – 21.2% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Jeremy Sochan – 16.5% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Jakob Poeltl – 18.7% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Josh Richardson – 19.0% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
Langford hasn’t been great as a starter which is why I have Josh Richardson listed over him above. Richardson was the main beneficiary of Vassell being out last time and will look like a solid value option. Jakob Poeltl just isn’t getting the minutes we’re used to seeing from him which makes him a GPP option in a nice matchup.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: Josh Richardson
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson, Isaiah Stewart
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Den -6.0
Starting with the Cavaliers, they’ll be without Donovan Mitchell in this one while Darius Garland comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that Garland is good to go here which would keep Caris LeVert in the starting lineup with Mitchell out. Below is how this team operates with Mitchell off of the court this season:
- Darius Garland – 30.3% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Caris LeVert – 22.5% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Evan Mobley – 21.7% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Jarrett Allen – 24.2% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Kevin Love – 21.5% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
I think this team looks pretty similar as it has with Garland out, but he’ll just take on that Mitchell role assuming he’s back. The starting five will look pretty good here with all the usage that opens up from Mitchell being out, I like going right back to the well but let’s keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Garland. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic had a tough go of it last night in a blowout against the Clippers. This is a rough bounce-back matchup, but he’s matchup-proof at this point and is one of the better spend-up options on the slate. Jamal Murray has been held down over his last couple of games but has been seeing all the minutes he can handle as of late and will look good here as well. Aaron Gordon should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and has at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last five and looks like a nice mid-range option while Michael Porter Jr. is more of a tournament guy due to his volatility. Then guys like Bruce Brown and Bones Hyland are fine tournament options to round out the slate.
5-star play: Darius Garland, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Caris LeVert, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, Bones Hyland
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Min -3.0
Starting with the Clippers, it’ll be interesting to see what they do with their vets here as they normally rest at some point during a back-to-back but the starters really didn’t play a whole lot due to a blowout last night. For example, Kawhi Leonard saw just 18 minutes… I’m going to operate under the assumption that everyone’s good to go here until they’re not, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed throughout the day. Paul George has been in good form as of late with a 32.0% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Kawhi Leonard has also been in good form but his price tag is starting to reflect that. Ivica Zubac was a guy I took a shot on last night due to the minutes he’s been seeing but as I mentioned, none of the starters really saw all that many minutes. I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him here. Then guys like Normal Powell, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, and John Wall are all secondary GPP options. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while we don’t have an injury report quite yet on the rest of the team. We saw Rudy Gobert bounce back nicely against the Blazers and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to at a really nice price tag here. Anthony Edwards has been great as of late and has a 32.4% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and gets a nice matchup against the Clippers. D’Angelo Russell is playing massive minutes right now and has been pretty consistent over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this spot.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, John Wall, Jaden McDaniels
Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Heat, Bam Adebayo has been in incredible form with at least 50 FanDuel points in three straight games and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. Jimmy Butler hasn’t been quite as good but performed well in this matchup earlier this season. I hate the price tag on Tyler Herro, but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s putting up as of late. He’ll be more of a tournament option, just because I can’t get myself to go there in cash games. Kyle Lowry has not been good as he’s been held under 20 DraftKings points in four straight games and would be more of a secondary piece for me. Then we get to filler pieces in Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin… none of these guys are priorities, however. From the Suns, they’ll continue to be without Devin Booker which means we should see Landry Shamet back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:
- Chris Paul – 22.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 20.2% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Landry Shamet – 21.8% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 25.7% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Torrey Craig – 13.3% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
I hate the matchup against a good Heat defense, but guys like Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton all make sense at their respective price tags. We likely see a few fewer minutes for guys like Shamet and Damion Lee with Cameron Payne back in the rotation and healthy as well which will keep these ancillary pieces as GPP-only plays in a tough matchup.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 242.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, they’ll continue to be without Clint Capela which means we should see Onyeka Okongwu back in the starting lineup yet again. He’s continued to look good and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. The Lakers have been bleeding fantasy production to opposing big men since Davis went down. Trae Young has seen his price tag come way down and will be a guy I want to go back to here, the Lakers’ defense just is not good right now. Dejounte Murray is playing all the minutes he can handle and has at least 40 DraftKings points in four straight. John Collins is another guy who has been in great form with Capela out and this one sets up perfectly for him as well. Then guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter are fine secondary options to round out this team. From the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, which means we’ll see Thomas Bryant start in his place going forward. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 35.0% usage rate; 1.56 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 29.6% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 18.8% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 20.6% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. I think Schroder is interesting as well, he had a big game last time out and should benefit from Walker and Reaves being out.
5-star play: Trae Young, LeBron James
4-star play: Onyeka Okongwu, Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Thomas Bryant, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Dennis Schroder
NBA Lock of the Day: Tobias Harris (DK – $6.6k; FD – $6.6k)
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid yet again in this one which means we should see more production out of the rest of this Sixers’ starting lineup. He has a 23.9% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Embiid off of the court this season and I love the matchup against this Bulls team that hasn’t played much defense as of late. He’s just too cheap for his role with Embiid out. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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