Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/31:
Nov 5, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Bones Hyland (3) gestures after a shot in the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few VIP Member wins – “Kanger” took home over $43k last week including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet while “NEZZY78” grabbed 2nd place on Saturday night winning $25k – congrats guys!
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 210.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler comes into this one as questionable but considering the magnitude of the opponent, I would imagine he’s a full go. This is a big Eastern Conference matchup and a matchup that kinda stinks for Butler, but I’m still fine going back to him at a dirt cheap price tag. Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Allen and Mobley down low, but we know the minutes will be there, so I don’t have an issue going back to him as well. Tyler Herro finally bounced back last time out and is a guy I think we can get to here as well. It’s a slow-paced matchup, but again, the price tag is hard to ignore. Then guys like Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, and Max Strus are probably in play as secondary options due to the size of the slate, but they’re not guys I’m all that excited to prioritize by any means. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell returned last time out to play just 20 minutes but was mostly due to a blowout with the Clippers. I would imagine he’s a full go here but probably more of a tournament option. Darius Garland came down to Earth last time out which was to be expected as he was bitten by the blowout bug as well, but he’s going to take a hit with Mitchell back in there as well. Evan Mobley has been in great form as of late and would be a guy I go back to as well, he’s playing all the minutes he can handle. Jarrett Allen continues to feel underpriced but again, this matchup isn’t great, so another secondary option. We can jump off of Caris LeVert as he would move back to the bench with Mitchell back in the starting lineup.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Caris LeVert, Kevin Love
Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -2.0
Starting with the Lakers, I would expect LeBron James and Anthony Davis to return in this one after sitting out the front end of the back-to-back last night. We don’t have an injury report for them quite yet, but that’s what I’ll assume is the case here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Davis played 34 minutes in their last game against the Celtics which was great to see, I’ll assume he’s not limited moving forward with those kinds of minutes and is a guy that will look great in this spot. Davis being back will hurt the rates for pretty much the rest of the team, so I’ll be underweight on guys like Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, and Russell Westbrook. I do still think we can get to LeBron James although his price tag is massive but he bounced back against the Celtics last time out and has at least 61 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Lastly, we saw newly acquired Rui Hachimura in the starting lineup with these two out last night, and was fine, but I would think he goes right back to the bench here. From the Knicks, we’ve got a revenge game for Julius Randle! He’s playing all the minutes he can handle as of late and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. The price tag on Jalen Brunson has gone down a little bit but he’s bounced back nicely over his last couple of games and I like the matchup in this one. The same can be said for RJ Barrett and his SF eligibility will increase his ownership simply due to how much of a wasteland that position has been as of late. Then I would imagine we continue to see Jericho Sims start in place of Mitchell Robinson while Isaiah Hartenstein would be a GPP dart throw as his main backup. Sims has an 8.5% usage rate and 0.81 fantasy points per minute with Robinson off of the court this season.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Julius Randle
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Jerich Sims
Deeper Value: Jericho Sims, Isaiah Hartenstein
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Russell Westbrook, Isaiah Hartenstein, Immanuel Quickley
Los Angeles Clippers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -3.0
Starting with the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has been in great form as of late averaging 50.4 DraftKings points per game in his last five games, and gets an elite matchup in this one. Paul George came down to Earth last time out but is a guy I don’t mind going back to either, both Kawhi and George are going to play 35+ minutes in competitive games. Ivica Zubac will probably be a tournament-only guy going forward, his production and minutes are all over the place. He had a down game in a bad matchup last time out but we know the ceiling is there with him when given the opportunity. Norman Powell is probably more of a GPP option with both George and Kawhi back in there, but the minutes should be there. He was a pretty big disappointment last time out as he filled in for George and Kawhi being out. The rest of this team is pretty meh on a big slate. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late… last time out they all had solid games and are good options yet again. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso who have been playing well, but I can’t say I want to prioritize either of them. Williams has been in pretty good form with at least 26 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
5-star play: Paul George
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 243.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -10.5
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball’s production has been down over his last few games but dropped 56.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. The pace-up spot will be good for his production and will be a guy I go right back to and hope people are scared off by his game logs. Terry Rozier has been in good form and generally performs well against the Bucks. He’s averaging 34.6 FanDuel points per game in nine games against the Bucks since last season. PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee will have their hands full with Giannis and Lopez down low, but they’ll need their size, so I would expect the minutes to be there and will look like solid secondary options. Then guys like Gordon Hayward and Jalen McDaniels will be GPP-only options. From the Bucks, Khris Middleton is floating around the 15-minute mark and will likely continue to come off of the bench as he works his way back from injury. I do think he’s somewhat interesting on DraftKings at just $5.4k, if he can squeak across 22-25 minutes he could pay off this price tag. Giannis Antetokounmpo has bounced back in a big way over his last two games with at least 70 DraftKings points in each of them. The Hornets were able to shut him down last time these two teams met, but they haven’t stopped big men all season long, so he’s going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate. Jrue Holiday is suddenly overpriced as this team gets healthier, I’ll wait for his price tag to come down before I go back to the well on him. Brook Lopez looks like a nice option in this one as well, as I mentioned, this is a great matchup for opposing big men. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, Connaughton has been in better form, but both are fine options.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, Jalen McDaniels, Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Den -7.5
Starting with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram played 29 minutes last time out and would not shock me if he’s able to get up over 30 minutes in this one. I still think he’s more of a tournament option than anything, but that minutes restriction is going to be lifted sooner rather than later. CJ McCollum has struggled in this matchup this season averaging just 23.6 DraftKings points per game in two games. He’d be more of a tournament guy as well as Ingram steals some of that thunder in the offense. Jonas Valanciunas is another tournament option who has been a bit volatile as of late. That said, they’ll need his size against Jokic down low, so if he can stay out of foul trouble he can certainly get us there in GPPs. Then Trey Murphy has been in solid form as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle, he’s in that Naji Marshall group of players that looks solid to round out rosters with. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to be right up there with Giannis as the top spend-up option on the slate. He’s averaging 65.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pelicans this season. Jamal Murray comes in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. He’s been in good form as of late and the price tag isn’t too bad either which makes him a solid secondary option on a shorter slate. Michael Porter Jr. was able to return last time out and got his minutes right back, so he’ll go back to being a tournament option due to his volatility as well. I do think we can keep going back to Aaron Gordon even with Porter back, he’s been in good form. If Murray is forced to miss, I would expect Bones Hyland to enter the starting lineup while Bruce Brown would see an increase in minutes as well, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown
NBA Lock of the Day: LaMelo Ball (DK – $9.5k; FD – $8.0k)
I touched on it a bit in the breakdown, but his game logs haven’t been the prettiest over his past few games… but hopefully we can use that to our advantage from an ownership standpoint. We don’t have ownership projections up quite yet as I write this, but we may be able to get him lower owned than he should be. This is a fast-paced game and he scored 56.75 DraftKings/54.6 FanDuel points in this matchup earlier this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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