Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/29:
Jan 27, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots the ball while Indiana Pacers forward Oshae Brissett (12) and forward Aaron Nesmith (23) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few VIP Member wins – “Kanger” took home over $43k on Wednesday night including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet while “NEZZY78” grabbed 2nd place on Saturday night winning $25k – congrats guys!
Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -9.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Pacers, Myles Turner and Andrew Nembhard both ended up playing last time out and should be good to go again in this one. Nembhard playing didn’t seem to impact the production for Chris Duarte and Bennedict Mathurin last time out, so I think both are going to look great again here. Turner gets a pretty good matchup against this Grizzlies team that is missing their best big-man defender in Steven Adams, so I’ll have no issue going right back to the well with him. Buddy Hield has bounced back nicely with at least 42 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is playing all the minutes he can handle. TJ McConnell has started over their last handful of games and should continue to do so here. He has not disappointed either, he has an 18.1% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute with Tyrese Haliburton off of the court over the last two weeks and will look like a great option yet again in this one. From the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Desmond Bane and Steven Adams, as they were last time out as well. We saw Ziaire Williams get the start in Bane’s place but didn’t do a whole lot… he’s going to be a GPP dart throw on this slate. They started Brandon Clarke again last time out, so I’m going to operate under the assumption we get the same in this one which will make him look like an awesome option against this Pacers team. Ja Morant has at least 58 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a top spend-up option on the slate. Then we get to Jaren Jackson Jr. who is going to be a GPP guy, we know he struggles with foul issues but the ceiling is certainly there. Finally, Dillon Brooks is worth a look in GPPs as well, he’s going to play massive minutes and should absorb some of those Bane shot opportunities, but he is volatile and not for the faint of heart.
5-star play: TJ McConnell, Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant
4-star play: Myles Turner, Chris Duarte, Bennedict Mathurin, Buddy Hield, Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks
Deeper Value: Ziaire Williams
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Ziaire Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 215.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -6.0
Starting with the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has been in great form as of late averaging 50.4 DraftKings points per game in his last five games. This isn’t the best matchup, but I have no issue if you want to go back to him on a short slate. Paul George came down to Earth last time out but is a guy I don’t mind going back to either, both Kawhi and George are going to play 35+ minutes in competitive games. Ivica Zubac will probably be a tournament-only guy going forward, he’s coming off of a big game last time out but minutes are going to be his biggest issue. I would imagine they’ll need his size against Allen and Mobley down low, so he’s firmly in play. Norman Powell is probably more of a GPP option with both George and Kawhi back in there, but the minutes should be there. The rest of this team is pretty meh on a big slate. From the Cavs, both Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love come into this one as questionable, and this is the big news on the slate we’ll be waiting on. They’ve both missed their last few games but this spread certainly feels like they’ll return here. I’ll operate under the assumption they’re both good to go and aren’t limited by any means. Darius Garland is probably a bit overpriced if we assume Mitchell is back but is still in play as a GPP option. Mitchell would be my preferred option at a lower price tag. Evan Mobley has been in great form as of late and would be a guy I go back to as well, he’s playing all the minutes he can handle. Jarrett Allen was pretty popular last time out and was fine, he’s another guy I’m okay with going right back to in this one. We can jump off of Caris LeVert as he would move back to the bench with Mitchell back in the starting lineup.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell
New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -10.0
Starting with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram played 29 minutes last night and would not shock me if he ends up sitting on the back end of a back-to-back here, but assuming he plays I think he looks like a fine option, they’re still easing him back to action. CJ McCollum dropped 56 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and would be a guy I go right back to in this one, especially if Ingram ends up sitting. Jonas Valanciunas is a tournament guy as well, but we can ignore his game log from last night as he was ejected pretty quickly. They’ll need his size to handle Lopez and Giannis in this one. Then Trey Murphy has been in solid form as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle, he’s in that Naji Marshall group of players that looks solid to round out rosters with… both would see a boost if Ingram is forced to miss. From the Bucks, Khris Middleton is floating around the 15-minute mark and will likely continue to come off of the bench as he works his way back from injury. I don’t see a way we can get to him here unless we get news before lock that he won’t be limited. Giannis Antetokounmpo got it going last time out against the Pacers and is right up there with Ja Morant as the top spend-up option on the slate, although he’s probably in a different tier. Jrue Holiday has kept his good form rolling and hasn’t been impacted all that much by Middleton returning, likely due to him playing just 15 minutes per game, but still a guy we’ll probably have to look toward on a short slate. Brook Lopez looks like a nice option in this one as well, he scored 47.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, Connaughton has been great over the last week or so.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
NBA Lock of the Day: Brandon Clarke (DK – $5.3k; FD – $6.0k)
Clarke’s price has come up a bit, but not enough. I would assume he starts again in this one and gets an elite matchup with a Pacers team that is giving up 56.92 DraftKings/55.90 FanDuel points per game against opposing centers this season… ranking 5th worst in the league. He has an 18.1% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Desmond Bane and Steven Adams off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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