Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/27:
Jan 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen (31) grabs a defensive rebound against Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout VIP Member “Kanger” on taking home over $43k on Wednesday night including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet! Congrats man!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 238.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -8.0
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Bucks, Khris Middleton is floating around the 15-minute mark and will likely continue to come off of the bench as he works his way back from injury. I don’t see a way we can get to him here unless we get news before lock that he won’t be limited. Giannis Antetokounmpo started slow against the Nuggets but picked up in the second half and is going to look like a great spend-up option yet again tonight in a great matchup. Jrue Holiday is suddenly overpriced as this team gets healthier, I’ll wait for his price tag to come down before I go back to the well on him. Brook Lopez looks like a nice option in this one as well, he scored 30 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, Connaughton was the better of the two last time out having a huge game against the Nuggets and played 38 minutes. From the Pacers, Myles Turner and Andrew Nembhard come into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regarding their statuses, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re both good to go here. I will say I love going back to Bennedict Mathurin if Nembhard ends up sitting, he sees a nice boost with him out along with Haliburton. He has a 29.7% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with those two off of the court this season. Turner would have a tough matchup in this one, but I would have no issue going right back to him. Buddy Hield has bounced back nicely with at least 42 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is playing all the minutes he can handle. TJ McConnell has started over their last handful of games and should continue to do so here. He has not disappointed either, he has a 17.8% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Tyrese Haliburton off of the court this season and is a guy I like going right back to the well with here. Then Chris Duarte would be another guy I would have an interest in if Nembhard ended up sitting as well.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, TJ McConnell
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles, Pat Connaughton, Chris Duarte
GPP Sleeper: Joe Ingles, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Chris Duarte, Andrew Nembhard
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -3.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Steven Adams will remain out while Desmond Bane comes in as questionable, similar to those Pacers players, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. We saw Brandon Clarke move into the starting lineup last time out for Adams and ended up making my core plays last time out. If he starts again he would certainly be a guy I go right back to and would be more of a tournament guy off of the bench. Ja Morant had a massive game last time out and will look like a great option yet again in this one, he’s averaging 48.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Wolves this season. Jaren Jackson sees a nice boost with Adams out as well and is a guy I like getting to here as well, they’ll need his size against this Gobert frontcourt. Finally, Bane will look solid assuming he’s good to go as well. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out while Rudy Gobert comes in as questionable. He played at least 34 minutes in his last two games, so he’s clearly not limited and will be a solid option. Anthony Edwards has at least 52 DraftKings points in three straight games and has been good with Towns off of the court this season with a 31.0% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute. We kind of know what we’re getting out of D’Angelo Russell at this point, he’s going to play big minutes and probably be pretty solid, but not someone I’ll feel the need to prioritize… although he does feel a bit too cheap. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels both take a pretty substantial hit with Gobert back in there and probably aren’t guys I need to get to here… Anderson did bounce back nicely last time out with that said.
5-star play: Brandon Clarke (if starting), Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Brandon Clarke (if off the bench), Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Xavier Tillman (if starting) Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: Xavier Tillman
GPP Sleeper: Xavier Tillman, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -7.5
Starting with the Magic, Franz Wagner has been fine as of late but he’s never a guy I really prioritize, but he’ll look like a solid secondary option here in a tough matchup. Paolo Banchero was popular last time out but gets a bad matchup in this one, but given the size of the slate, I do still think he’s in play for tournaments at the very least. Wendell Carter Jr. has looked better as of late and I like the price tag a good amount, so he’s not a guy I would talk you off of or let the matchup take me off of him. Markelle Fultz is probably more of a secondary option than anything, but again, the price is fine. Then a guy like Cole Anthony is a tournament-only guy, as I said, the more bodies this team gets back, the less I like them. Jonathan Isaac will likely continue to be limited to around 10 minutes per game until he gets his legs underneath him, he’s not playable at this point even though the price tag is intriguing. From the Heat, Bam Adebayo had a big game against the Celtics last time out and would be a guy I like going right back to in a great matchup here. He did benefit from Jimmy Butler being out in that game which was some surprising pre-lock news. I would imagine Butler returns in this one and has a really nice price tag. Tyler Herro was a massive disappointment filling in for Butler against the Celtics and tanked a lot of DFS teams, he would be more of a tournament guy for me in this one. I do think the price tag on Kyle Lowry is interesting on DraftKings where he’s just $4.7… less so on FanDuel, but I think he’s a strong option on DraftKings. His form just hasn’t been great over the last few weeks.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero, Kyle Lowry (DraftKings), Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry (FanDuel), Max Strus, Victor Oladipo
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Cle +1.0
Starting with the Cavs, this spread feels really fishy… I would think we’re getting Donovan Mitchell out again at the very least along with Kevin Love and maybe some other veteran rest days on the back end of a back-to-back. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’ll be without Mitchell and Love again in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Darius Garland – 29.4% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Caris LeVert – 23.4% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Evan Mobley – 22.4% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Jarrett Allen – 18.8% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Isaac Okoro – 12.5% usage rate; 0.71 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Cavs and I would expect to see LeVert and Okoro back in the starting lineup in this one. This team looked awesome against the Rockets last night and get a similarly great matchup in this one. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Lu Dort in this one, I would expect to see guys like Kenrich Williams and Aaron Wiggins fill up his minutes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has at least 51 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a guy I like a good amount even in a tough matchup. The price tag on Josh Giddey has come way up and is probably more of a secondary option but will see a boost in his rates with Dort out. Jalen Williams finally bounced back last time out and PF of all positions have been great against the Cavs as of late. I mentioned him at the top of this team, but I think Kenrich Williams is a nice value option here.
5-star play: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams
Deeper Value: Isaac Okoro, Cedi Osman, Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins
GPP Sleeper: Isaac Okoro, Cedi Osman, Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -5.5
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet has come down to Earth a bit over his last couple of games but gets an elite matchup in this one, he’s going to look like a strong option in all formats in a fast-paced game against this Warriors team. Pascal Siakam bounced back really nicely last time out and I love targeting big men against this Warriors team right now as they continue to go small with Draymond at the five. We saw Brandon Clarke have a nice game last time out and I would expect the same from Siakam here. Scottie Barnes has been in great form as of late and is playing all of the minutes he can handle. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 19.9% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. Then guys like Gary Trent and OG Anunoby are secondary guys, Trent Jr. has been in better form. Anunoby was questionable all day last time this team was on the slate but seems like he’s kicked that tag. From the Warriors, they’re going to keep Jordan Poole in the starting lineup moving forward while Kevon Looney moves to the bench which essentially kills Looney’s value at this price tag. He doesn’t have the type of usage rate to control a second until like Poole does. Then Poole moving into the starting lineup next to Klay and Curry is only going to take usage away from the rest of these guys… so it’ll be something to watch moving forward. Speaking of Steph Curry, he was a guy I was pretty heavy on last time out as I tried to ping-pong him with Ja… then he went and got ejected in the fourth quarter. I have no issue going right back to him here as a spend-up option on this slate. I can’t say I love either Jordan Poole or Klay Thompson at their price tags, one of them could have a nice game, but they’re priced up and as I mentioned, they’re both going to be fighting for usage in that starting unit. Andrew Wiggins was a late scratch last slate and comes in as questionable with an illness here, so keep an eye on that news. Lastly, Draymond Green moving to the five will be beneficial for fantasy purposes, he’s going to look great at this price tag, and I would expect to see his rebound equity climb.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Steph Curry
4-star play: Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Chris Boucher, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole
NBA Lock of the Day: Caris LeVert (DK – $5.2k; FD – $5.4k)
The lock of the day is going to look very similar to yesterday as I’m going to operate under the assumption that Donovan Mitchell will be out for this game which should vault Caris LeVert right back into the starting lineup here. He has a 22.5% usage rate and 0.95 fantasy points per minute with Mitchell off of the court and is averaging 33.28 DraftKings/31.73 FanDuel points per game with him out this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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