Welcome to the week 14 main slate. I am writing this from a place of tilt. I was tied for first in the big $3 20 max GPP on DraftKings Thursday night with 9 seconds left on the game clock. Then the donkey ass Raiders played press man coverage on Van Jefferson, when only a touchdown could beat them. Baker Mayfield, who was cut by the Panthers 48 hours earlier dropped a dime and dropped me about 200 spots in the standings.
A $719 win would not have been life changing, but it would have been a nice start to the week off a $3 ticket. Enough with the pity party, though, we must press on.
We’ve talked in this space before about how the Geek refers to slates like this week as having a “Precious,” one game to rule them all. The Vikings at Lions game has a 52 point total, 5.5 points clear of any other game on the slate. I am certainly going to have game stacks of these, but I will look for ways to get different within in each build. I look forward to listening to Tournament Tactics Podcast and hearing how the Geek, and the guys plan to attack it.
These are six of my core plays that I hope will get me all the way to the top, not just 9 seconds away.
Dec 4, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift (32) runs with the ball and tries to avoid a tackle from Jacksonville Jaguars safety Andrew Wingard (42) during the first half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
1- D’Andre Swift $5800 on DraftKings
Swift’s season has been a disappointment, largely due to injury and Jamaal Williams establishing himself as one of the best goal line backs in league. This feels like a spot where he could finally live up to the preseason hype. The 21.1 DK points he scored last week against Jacksonville are his highest total since week one. His snap share has increased 4 straight weeks and he actually out-touched Williams 18-11 last game.
Underdog’s Josh Norris points out that the Vikings have recently given up 6 catches for 109 and 2 TDs to Pollard, 9 catches to Rhamondre Stevenson, and combined 11 catches to Ty Johnson and Zonovan Knight. Their defensive scheme funnels check downs to the RB. This plays right into Swift’s skillset. I love him as a cheap piece in this high total game.
2- Garrett Wilson $5900 on DraftKings
What does the DK pricing algorithm have against Garrett Wilson. It is wild that he is still priced under 6k. He’s averaging 26.8 points since Mike White took over. He had 8 grabs for 92 yards in week 9 against Buffalo. Ryan McDowell tweeted that Wilson has the same number of WR1 weeks as CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins. The rookie looks like an absolute star. It won’t be long before he considered in the class of those previously mentioned All Pros. He is going to be popular, but I don’t care. I am going to keep jamming Wilson every week until they price him appropriately.
3- Isaiah Hodgins $3500 on DraftKings
My first two pick were a bit chalky, so now it’s time to get weird. I am a Giants fan and I had never heard of Hodgins until my team claimed him off the Bills’ practice squad a month ago. I’ve watched every snap he has since played for Big Blue, and I’m telling you, this kid is good. He’s big (6’4″), runs crisp routes, and catches everything thrown his way. He’s caught at least two balls in all four games with the Giants. His snap percentage has increased each week, getting up to 80% last week against Washington. Hodgins finished with 5 grabs including his first career TD. He also had a touchdown called back on Thanksgiving, in Dallas.
The Giants are 7 point underdogs at home to Philly. They will need to throw to keep up with the explosive Eagles. Isaiah Hodgins is developing a nice rapport with Daniel Jones. I like him as a dirt cheap, low-owned value play.
4- Chigoziem Okonkwo $2700 on DraftKings
Everyone is going to play Greg Dulcich, but I am going to pivot to an even cheaper rookie. The Titans 4th round pick is starting to gain a bigger role in their offense. He’s averaged 44.6 yards in his last 5 games, which is respectable considering how terrible the tight end position has been on the whole. Last week against the Eagles, Chig posted career highs in snap percentage (58%) and yards (68). He out-snapped both of his veteran teammates Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim.
5- James Cook $4600 on DraftKings
James Cook is my highest owned player in best ball. For most of the season that looked like a pretty stupid stance to take. I thought he was a much better talent, and would eventually overtake Devin Singletary. It may have taken a while, but at least for one game, that was the case. Dalvin’s little brother out-touched Singletary 20-13 last week in a big division showdown against New England.
The Jets are better attacked on the ground than through the air. If Cook continues to be the lead back, this could be a good spot for him here as a 10 point home favorite.
6- Amon-Ra St. Brown $7800 DraftKings
This price is just stupid. I call this column the Simple Six because I think at times we made DFS harder than it needs to be. We try too hard to get cute and out smart the field. Don’t overthink this. Amon-Ra is going to be chalk, but I am just going to eat it and jam him into every lineup I can. He was chalk the last two weeks and all he did was put up 30.9 and 37.6 points. Yet, DraftKings still refuses to price him at 8k, at home, in a 52 point total. He fits easily into double stacks with Goff and Swift or DJ Chark. There are plenty of ways to get different on this slate. I have given you a couple above. Just don’t try to get cute and fade the Sun God. His shine is too bright.
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