Welcome to week 16 of NFL action. It is a funky one. The main slate is a 10 gamer taking place on Saturday, aka Christmas Eve. Winter weather is definitely affecting the totals. 5 of the 10 games have totals of 39.5 or lower. I can’t ever recall seeing an NFL number as low as the 32 that is currently posted for New Orleans at Cleveland.
You are going to need to be plugged into the best and most current information, right up until kickoff. I am certainly not the only one who will be away from his usual work station, celebrating with family. I am going rely more the ever on the DFS Army tools for last minute lineup decisions.
Just last week, when most people were fading the Buffalo/Miami game due to weather, The Geek realized that it didn’t look nearly as bad as expected and posted as much in the DFS Army Discord. This is the type of information I am going to count on Saturday afternoon as my nieces and nephews are screaming and yelling as they open presents.
Fortunately, we are offering our best deal of the year on VIP access. Use the promo code CHRISTMAS and get 50% off your first month and 10% off every month after. Make sure you are signed up and ready to go a day early this week. In the mean time, I’ll get you started with six of my core plays.
1- Gardner Minshew $4800 on DraftKings
So you are telling me that I can play Gardner Minshew on Christmas Eve, in a dome, against America’s team, days after giving the eulogy for his mentor, Mike Leach? And he’s min priced? It’s going to be hard not to hit the lock button. A serious case can be made, though, for Minshew that is more than just narrative based. He playing behind PFF’s top ranked pass blocking offensive line. He has two elite receivers in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Dallas Goedert is healthy and returning at tight end. He’s playing in one of two dome games on a slate that could be wrecked by weather.
The matchup doesn’t scare me either. Injuries have a taken a late season toll on the once dominant Dallas defense. Just last week they surrendered 40 real life points and 31.8 DraftKings points to Trevor Lawrence.
Minshew is not your average game manager backup who will be content to hand the ball off. Scott Barrett had a great stat, Gardner Minshew’s 17.8 fantasy points averaged in career starts is better than the 17.7 Justin Herbert is averaging this season. In his two starts for Philadelphia late last season he averaged 17.1 fantasy points, and that was without the help of AJ Brown.
The man with the mustache has the highest points per dollar (3.9) projection of any QB in our Domination Station optimizer. At only $4800, he makes it really easy to spend up on studs like…
2- Derrick Henry $8600 on DraftKings
The Texans are playing better, but they still give up more fantasy points to running backs than any team in the league. If Jerick McKinnon got them for 34.2 DK points last week, what do you think the Big Dog is going to do in a must win game. All Henry has done is rush for over 200 yards in each of his last 4 games against Houston. In week 8 he beat them for 38.8 DK points on 32 carries. Both were season highs.
With extremely raw rookie, Malik Willis starting for an injured Ryan Tannehill, the Titans will be even further incentivized to the ball in the hands of their bruising back. Henry will certainly be high owned, but this is chalk I am not willing to fade.
3- J.K. Dobbins $5800 on DraftKings and $7000 on Fanduel
Those who held onto the Ravens’ RB in their season long leagues have been rewarded for their patience. After sitting out for 7 weeks with lingering knee issues, Dobbins has come back with a vengeance. He’s rushed for 120 and 125 yards in two games since returning. The former Ohio State star averaged a ridiculous 8.75 yards per carry in those contests.
Dobbin is still looking to find his top form. This week he is in a great spot as a 6.5 point home favorite against an Atlanta team that has long been soft against the run.
4- Jahan Dotson $3900 on DraftKings and $5700 on Fanduel
The Commanders first round draft pick is this weeks winner of the biggest misprice due to playing in the night game competition. Dotson has scored in each of his last two games and averaged a tick under 20.0 DK points over that span. The 49ers have the toughest run defense in the league. Washington will not be able just hand the ball off to Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson.
Vegas expects the game script to play in favor of the Washington passing game, as they are 7 point dogs. The emerging rookie is playing almost 80% of snaps the last two weeks. These prices are too cheap for a player of his talent and current usage.
5- Marquise Goodwin $4300 on DraftKings and $5800 on Fanduel
The former Olympic level track star has produced nicely as Geno Smith 3rd receiver this year in Seattle. He’s scored a career high 4 touchdowns and twice broken 20.0 DK points, including a 5 grab effort two weeks ago against Carolina. His opportunities should only increase with Tyler Lockett and his 23.5% share sitting out. Goodwin will now be on the field in all two receiver sets.
Seattle needs a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Seahawks are 10 point dogs in the highest total (49) game of slate, in Kansas City. The veteran speedster only needs to get behind the beatable Chiefs’ secondary once to justify his salary.
6- Daniel Bellinger $3300 on DraftKings and $4700 on Fanduel
This is an absolutely gross slate for tight ends. I’ve been happily punting with Chig Okonkwo the last two weeks, but don’t feel confident that Tennessee will throw enough with Willis at the helm to roster any of their pass catchers. I’ll instead settle for Bellinger as my dirty TE punt of the week. The Giants’ rookie has averaged 4 targets in 3 games since he’s returned from an eye injury.
Bellinger played a season high 98% of the Giants’ offensive snaps last week. It is not the sexiest play in the world, but he’ll at least be on the field, running routes, in doors, in the 2nd highest total (48) on the slate. Such is life, when trying roster a non-Travis Kelce tight end in 2022.
I just want to finish by wishing everyone a merry Christmas, good luck in all your fantasy action this weekend, and happy holidays!