Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/8:
Dec 5, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) walks on the court during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 213.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -6.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Clippers, I would expect they come in fully healthy at tip-off but guys like John Wall, Marcus Morris, and Norman Powell will likely come in as questionable. Paul George continues to be overpriced, it’s a small slate tonight which keeps him in play, but he’s been terrible relative to his price tag. The same can be said for Kawhi Leonard, although it was nice to see him get 30 minutes, so keep an eye on that moving forward. Ivica Zubac is interesting at the very least, we’ve seen a massive ceiling from him this season, but it’s a tough matchup with Bam down low. Reggie Jackson would be more of a tournament guy as well if Wall, Morris, and Powell are back, it will make his minutes volatile and he’s been inconsistent all season anyway. I don’t love playing the Clippers in DFS this season, but on a short slate, we might have to. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler ended up missing their last game and comes in as questionable here, I’ll operate under the assumption he’s good to go here and is a solid option in all formats, be sure to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. I’d prefer him at his price tag over the more expensive George on the other side of this game. Bam Adebayo bounced back nicely last time out and would be a guy I like getting back to in this one, although his price tag has come up on both sites. Kyle Lowry has continued to play all the minutes he can handle and has been extremely consistent, he’s a nice secondary option in all formats. Tyler Herro was a guy I was all over last time out, along with the rest of the public, but he now has at least 40 FanDuel points in five straight games. If Butler returns it will make his price tag look tough, but again, the slate size will help get exposure to him. Caleb Martin and Max Strus should continue to see all the minutes they can handle and are in play as secondary options, but aren’t guys I’ll be prioritizing. I should mention, Victor Oladipo returned last time out and played 19 minutes… I don’t think he’s a guy we can get to until his minutes come up, but he looked solid, so maybe in play as a deep GPP option especially if Butler were to miss.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kawhi Leonard, John Wall, Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Victor Oladipo
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Hou -1.5
Starting with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. The price tag is starting to come down on him and he gets an elite matchup here, he’s going to be a guy I like quite a bit on this slate. Alperen Sengun hasn’t been in good form as of late being held under 26 DraftKings points in three straight games. That said, this is a nice bounce-back spot on a short slate, he’s going to be a solid option tonight. Jalen Green is similar to Porter Jr., I love attacking the Spurs with opposing guards, he’s going to look great as well. Jabari Smith Jr. has shown some volatility on the season, which is to be expected from a rookie, but he has a 17.8% usage rate and 0.80 fantasy points per minute on the season. Tari Eason has been great with at least 28 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Don’t expect him to see a ton of minutes, but he’s a great per-minute producer. Then Eric Gordon returned last time out to play 40 minutes, he’s a nice value option in all formats. From the Spurs, they’ll continue to be without Jakob Poeltl, Jeremy Sochan, Keita Bates-Diop, and now Devin Vassell as well as he comes in as doubtful. I would expect the starting lineup to look something like Tre Jones, Romeo Langford, Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, and Zach Collins… we could see Josh Richardson in there as well, but he has an injury designation as well. Below is how this team operates with Vassell and Poeltl off of the court this season, I kept Sochan on just for sample-size purposes:
- Keldon Johnson – 35.0% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Zach Collins – 18.9% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Tre Jones – 27.9% usage rate; 1.36 fpm (small sample of 81 minutes)
- Romeo Langford – 17.3% usage rate; 0.59 fpm
- Doug McDermott – 20.6% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
My favorite options from this team are Johnson, Collins, and Tre Jones due to the per-minute production from them. We’ve seen Keldon Johnson benefit from a rebounding standpoint with Poeltl out this season and sees a +6.2% usage rate and +0.11 fantasy points per minute with these guys out. The backup center situation is fluid as we saw Charles Bassey and Isaiah Roby both see minutes last time out, they’re both fine value options, but who knows what Pop will do.
5-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins
4-star play: Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Eric Gordon, Tre Jones, Doug McDermott
Deeper Value: Eric Gordon, Charles Bassey, Isaiah Roby
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Romeo Langford, Charles Bassey, Isaiah Roby, Josh Richardson
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Por -1.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic came down to Earth against the Mavericks last time out but gets an elite bounce-back spot in this one. He did struggle with just 33.3 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season, but he’s pretty easily the top spend-up option on the slate. Jamal Murray has been extremely consistent as of late and has a 27.7% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute with Michael Porter Jr. off of the court this season, I like going right back to him here even after a rough game last time out. Bruce Brown and Aaron Gordon will continue to play all the minutes they can handle while Porter Jr. is out as well, both look like nice mid-range options in this one. Then guys like Bones Hyland and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are fine GPP options if you land on them, but won’t be guys I look to prioritize by any means. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard returned last time out and played 32 minutes, so I would assume he’s not restricted moving forward and will look good in this one again. The price tag on Anfernee Simons is a bit much for me with Dame back. On the season, he losses 5.2% in usage and 0.09 fantasy points per minute with Dame on the court. Jerami Grant continues to look great and play all the minutes he can handle, he’s a nice option in all formats. We get a revenge game for Jusuf Nurkic who is another guy that has been extremely consistent as of late, he’s a nice option as well. Josh Hart comes in as probable, he and Justise Winslow will look like nice mid-range options to round out the slate.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow
Deeper Value: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
GPP Sleeper: Bones Hyland, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Anfernee Simons
NBA Lock of the Day: -> Click Here <-
We’ve got a shorter slate on deck, so I’m going to keep my lock of the day behind our DFSArmy paywall, so come get started, promo code MADNESS gets you 10% off! Check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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