Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/7:
Nov 25, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma (33) reacts after scoring to end the third quarter against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Clippers, they’ll be without John Wall, Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, and Luke Kennard in this one. Paul George looked fine last time out but he continues to be overpriced, I don’t see a reason to get to him on a slate of this size even in a good matchup. The same can be said for Kawhi Leonard, although it was nice to see him get near 30 minutes, so keep an eye on that. Ivica Zubac is interesting at the very least, we’ve seen a massive ceiling from him this season and the matchup sets up well against this Magic frontcourt. I do think Reggie Jackson is interesting as well with the guys who are out for the Clippers, the minutes and opportunities should be locked in, but man he’s been volatile. I don’t love anything from this team, but if we get starved for value we likely see Terance Mann or Amir Coffey who is dirt cheap start… but, remember, he’s dirt cheap for a reason. From Orlando, they’ll continue to be without Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., and Chuma Okeke in this one while Mo Bamba was removed from the injury report for the first time in about a month. I would expect Bamba is somewhat limited and I’ll use this game as a wait-and-see game on him. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony shave seen their minutes fluctuate but have the ability to get to the 30-minute range if they’re playing well. I wouldn’t have an issue getting to them as dart throw options in tournaments. Paolo Banchero bounced back in a big way last time out against the Bucks B-team, but he looked good regardless, his price is starting to get to a more playable point as well. Bol Bol hasn’t been great over his last couple of games either, but he’s a fine GPP option as well, his price has come down a few hundred. Then Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option, he hasn’t been in the best form either. Most of this Orlando team is GPP options for me.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: Amir Coffey
GPP Sleeper: Kawhi Leonard, John Wall, Reggie Jackson, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Bol Bol, Mo Bamba
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -8.5
Starting with the Lakers, Anthony Davis left last night’s game after eight minutes of action and will likely come into this one as questionable. It was an illness, so I can’t imagine he’s out too long and may even return here. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. LeBron James has looked great and I think he’s slightly underpriced, especially if Davis were to miss, he’s a nice option in all formats. Assuming Davis plays, he’s playing at a ridiculous level, he has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.92 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks if we take out last night’s game. I have no issue riding the heater out with him. Russell Westbrook is more of a tournament option but has looked solid over his last few games. The price did come down to a more playable range as well, he’s another guy that would see a really nice boost if Davis were forced to miss. Dennis Schroder makes sense as a value option, he has at least 29 minutes in four of his last five games, so the opportunity is certainly there. Then a guy like Lonnie Walker is a good secondary option, but not someone I’m forcing in. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam has looked much better over his last couple of games and is playing awesome this season with a 29.7% usage rate and 1.38 fantasy points per minute. OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are solid secondary options as well, but again, they’re not going to look quite as good with Siakam and Barnes back. The game logs probably won’t impress you much either, but there’s a lot of meat on the bone at these prices. Scottie Barnes has at least 38 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and feels too cheap here as well. Then Gary Trent Jr. will be a secondary tournament option regardless, the price tag has come down on him.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Scottie Barnes, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: Dennis Schroder
GPP Sleeper: Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Gary Trent Jr.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, they’ll be without John Collins and De’Andre Hunter again in this one. I would expect to see AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson slide right back into the starting lineup with Hunter and Collins out and both looked great filling in for them last time out. We’ve seen nice flashes from Griffin this season and I think he looks solid in the mid-range here while Johnson would be more of a GPP value option. I took a big leap with Trae Young last time out due to the massive rate increase he sees with Hunter and Collins out this season… but there’s something just a tick off with this Atlanta team. That said, this is an elite spot against a Knicks team that isn’t playing any sort of defense this season. He has a 44.2% usage rate and 1.54 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court. Dejounte Murray has looked much better as of late with at least 43.6 FanDuel points in three straight, but I still think he’s slightly overpriced. The minutes for Clint Capela should be more secure with Collins and Hunter out as well, he’ll look like a great center option. Lastly, Bogdan Bogdanovic is still floating around the 22-minute range, he’ll be a guy I wait for the minutes to fully come back on before I start playing him… although he looked great last game. From the Knicks, the price tag on Julius Randle continues to fall but for good reason due to his production. That said, I do like the matchup for him in this one and he’s shown a solid floor at the very least. I like going back to the well on Jalen Brunson as well, we know the minutes will be there and I love attacking the backcourt of Atlanta with opposing guards. RJ Barrett is probably more of a tournament guy for me due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this season, but I have no issue with him here if you want to make a case for him. Then guys like Mitchell Robinson and Immanuel Quickley will be GPP darts on a slate of this size.
5-star play: Trae Young
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, Clint Capela, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: Jalen Johnson
GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley
Charlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -10.0
Starting with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. below is how this team operates with them off of the court this season:
- Jalen McDaniels – 17.3% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- PJ Washington – 22.3% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Terry Rozier – 30.1% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Kelly Oubre Jr. – 27.8% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
Mason Plumlee has been in good form as well with at least 36 DraftKings points in two of his last three. Rozier will play all the minutes he can handle, and has been in good form with at least 35 DraftKings points in five straight and would be a guy I go right back to here as well. From the Nets, Ben Simmons is on his way back but he’ll miss this one yet. Kevin Durant has been much better as of late with at least 51 DraftKings points in three of his last four and looks like a solid spend-up option in all formats on this slate. Kyrie Irving keeps reeling me in with that price tag but I think the slight couple hundred dollar boost will be enough for me to control myself here… he’s a fine option in all formats, but not someone I’m forcing in (60-point game incoming). I do like going right back to Nicolas Claxton with Simmons still out, his minutes become extremely secure, and has major double-double upside. Royce O’Neale will continue to play all the minutes he can handle and is a solid filler piece. TJ Warren is in a similar boat as Bogdan Bogdanovic, he’s going to come back slowly, so not really a guy I’m getting to on this slate. Then Joe Harris and Seth Curry are solid GPP options, but I think Harris is cash playable due to the consistency as of late.
5-star play: Kevin Durant
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., PJ Washington, Kyrie Irving, Nicolas Claxton, Royce O’Neale, Joe Harris
Deeper Value: Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, Joe Harris, Seth Curry
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -5.5
Starting with the Wizards, they’re going to be without Bradley Beal over their next few games. I would anticipate Corey Kispert slides back into the starting lineup with Beal sidelined. Below is how the rest of the team operates with Beal off of the court this season:
- Kyle Kuzma – 30.5% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Will Barton – 19.4% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Kristaps Porzingis – 29.7% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Monte Morris – 18.1% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 18.5% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
These would be my favorite options, I don’t think I’ll get a whole lot of Kispert even with him in the starting lineup. I will say, guys like Barton, Morris, and maybe even Avdija are more tournament options than anything, but the minutes and opportunities will open up with Beal out. That said, the main pieces I want here are Kuzma and Porzingis, they both look awesome here in a great matchup against a struggling Bulls team. Speaking of the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan has come down to Earth over his last couple of games but did drop 49 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season, he’s a solid option in all formats. I do like going right back to the well with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic at their respective price tags, however. LaVine had a massive game and has been extremely consistent as of late, while Vucevic struggled, his price tag is still too cheap. Outside of the main three, there isn’t a ton I like from this team other than the obligatory Andre Drummond mention at a sub-$4k price tag on DraftKings.
5-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value: Will Barton, Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Will Barton, Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, Andre Drummond
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -7.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look great and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Josh Giddey has been good even with SGA back over his last few games with at least 44 FanDuel points in two of his last three. The price tag has come up for him, but it’s hard to ignore his recent production. Lu Dort is fine, but he feels like he’s priced right where he should be and is volatile. Then the rest of this team is tough for me to prioritize or get any real exposure to outside of GPPs. They’re doing weird stuff with the lineup outside of these main three guys such as switching up the starting lineup in the second half of games and randomly pulling minutes. That said, guys like Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Jalen Williams are fine GPP options in this one. From the Grizzlies, they should get their main guys back after missing their last game, outside of Desmond Bane, he’ll continue to be out. Ja Morant has been great and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to in a great matchup. Jaren Jackson was a guy I ended up with a lot of last time out against Detroit and he was fine, but you’re hoping for more out of him. He has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute with Bane off of the court this season. Dillon Brooks came back down to Earth last time out and will be more of a GPP option with Morant and Jackson back, I don’t love the price tag either. Then I have no issue going right back to Steven Adams as a mid-range center option in a great matchup.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jaren Jackson, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jalen Williams, Dillon Brooks
Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -10.0
Starting with the Pistons, Killian Hayes has been in great form with at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last five, he’s going to continue to start for Cade Cunningham and is a solid secondary option in this one even after a down game last time out. Bojan Bogdanovic went bananas last night but I don’t expect him to shoot 7-9 from three-point range again. That said, that’s how he hits his ceiling, so I have no problem going back to him at this price tag. Jaden Ivey is more of a tournament option due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this season. He has a 28.3% usage rate and 0.92 fantasy points per minute with Cade off of the court this season. The minutes for Marvin Bagley will likely continue to be volatile but he’s a nice per-minute producer when he’s out there and the price tag isn’t all that bad on him. I don’t love the matchup, however. Then guys like Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Alec Burks are fine secondary tournament options as well. From the Pelicans, they’ll be without Brandon Ingram again in this one, so I would expect to see Dyson Daniels in the starting lineup yet again. Below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Zion Williamson – 28.9% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
- CJ McCollum – 26.3% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Dyson Daniels – 12.3% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 16.6% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Herb Jones – 19% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Pels, particularly those high-priced, high-usage guys in Zion and McCollum in a great matchup. I will say, Daniels had a rough go of it last time out so maybe that keeps his ownership down, but he’s been great and getting consistent minutes as of late.
5-star play: Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum
4-star play: Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Dyson Daniels
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Ivey, Marvin Bagley, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks, Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones
Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis had a great game last time out dropping a triple-double on the Bulls, and will look great again in this one. I love the spot for De’Aaron Fox as well even though he hasn’t been in the best form. The pace of this game should set up great for him and he leads the team with a 28.5% usage rate accompanied by 1.26 fantasy points per minute. I do think going back to Keegan Murray is interesting as well depending on the value we get on this slate. He’s going to see at 23+ minutes depending on how he’s playing and has 10x upside at this price tag… but he’s extremely volatile at this point in his career. The minutes for Malik Monk are all over the place as well but has at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last four and makes sense as a tournament option here. Then guys like Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes are solid secondary options. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to look great here and will be one of the top spend-up options on the slate. He has at least 61 DraftKings points in three of his last four and there won’t be anyone on the Kings that will be able to stop him. Khris Middleton is floating around the 27-minute range right now, I’m going to wait for him to get his full minutes back before I pay this price tag on a big slate for him. I’ve been all over Jrue Holiday at this low-$7k price tag and he’s been great with at least 45 DraftKings points in three straight games, he’d be a great option again in this one, although the price tag is starting to come up. Bobby Portis will be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in his minutes but has been a great per-minute guy when given the opportunity this season and has shown some consistent production as of late. Brook Lopez will continue to be a sneaky center option as well, he’s been extremely consistent this season and always has the upside to get hot from the three-point line to get himself a ceiling game.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis
Deeper Value: Keegan Murray
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Khris Middleton
Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Min -4.5
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner come into this one as questionable after missing their last game, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding their statuses. I’m going to operate under the assumption that they’re good to go here. We saw the B-team rack up fantasy points left and right against the Warriors, particularly Andrew Nembhard who had the best game of his young career. That being said, I’ll jump right off him if Haliburton is back at this price tag… he’s in play if Haliburton misses again though. Buddy Hield has been much better over his last couple of games as well and would be someone I have no issue going back to. I think Bennedict Mathurin will be a tournament option regardless of who is active due to his volatility, but it’s good to see them push him to that 40-minute mark last time out. The same can be said for Jalen Smith, although he’d look a lot better if Turner were out and actually drew the start last game. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns for the next few weeks. Anthony Edwards will be a guy I go right back to, he sees a nice bump in his rates with Towns out… he has a 30.2% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season. I simply can’t play Rudy Gobert right now, for whatever reason his price has come up on DraftKings and he’s just not looked great for DFS and even got ejected last time out. I do like D’Angelo Russell, however, he’s been extremely consistent as of late with at least 32 FanDuel points in six straight games, and gets an elite matchup here. Jaylen Nowell took a bit of a hit for me with Jordan McLaughlin back last time but he still saw 23 minutes and kept it rolling, I would have no issue with him yet again here. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels will see a boost with Towns out as well, Anderson is your cash guy and will start for Towns while McDaniels is a bit more volatile.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Anderson, Jaylen Nowell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Smith, Rudy Gobert, Jaylen Nowell, Jaden McDaniels
Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -7.0
Then we get to the Warriors… who will be without Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green tonight. I would expect to see guys like Jordan Poole, Anthony Lamb, and Jonathan Kuminga to slide into the starting lineup in their places. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 35.0% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Jonathan Kuminga – 19.5% usage rate; 0.64 fpm
- Anthony Lamb – 13.8% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Klay Thompson – sample size not big enough
- Kevon Looney – sample size not big enough
I actually left Draymond on the court to help with the sample size issues and he’s not a big usage guy anyway so it won’t impact much. I don’t know how much I’m going to let these sample sizes play into my analysis anyway since most of them are around 150 minutes and come in blowout run where Curry, Wiggins, and those guys are off of the court. That said, Poole is going to easily be my favorite option here while Kuminga and Lamb look like excellent value options. I’m going to be careful with Klay Thompson, it seems odd that Curry, Wiggins, and Green are out while he’s still in there… you’d think they’d give him a veteran rest day as well. Donte DiVincenzo is interesting as well, we’ve seen his minutes come up as of late, and makes sense as a value option. From the Jazz, Mike Conley comes in as questionable after missing the last few weeks but did return to practice this week, so it feels like he’s on the verge of coming back. That said, I would expect him to be limited in his first game back, so I think we can still go back to guys like Collin Sexton and Malik Beasley if you land on them. Lauri Markkanen has at least 47 DraftKings points in two of his last four and makes sense in a great matchup here. Jordan Clarkson bounced back last time out and has been consistent all season long, he’s a nice option in that price range. Then I love going right back to Kelly Olynyk here, his minutes have been extremely consistent and he’s making the most of them.
5-star play: Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga
4-star play: Anthony Lamb, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: Anthony Lamb, Jonathan Kuminga, Donte DiVincenzo
GPP Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Collin Sexton, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.0
We’ll round out the slate starting with Boston, Jaylen Brown is in unreal form right now with at least 56 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. I can’t say I love the matchup, but I wouldn’t have any issue riding out the heater if you’ve been on him. Malcolm Brogdon was a guy I was high on last time out with Smart ruled out, Brogdon missed their game last time out but sounds like he’ll return here, I have no issue with him at this price tag. Al Horford has been fine and his price has come down, I don’t hate getting exposure to him as well but probably more of a secondary/last piece-in type of guy. Jayson Tatum continues to lead the team with a 32.8% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute, I have no problem with him as a spend-up options as well. We can round the team out with Marcus Smart who is a fine secondary option as well, he’s been in great form. From the Suns, Chris Paul comes in as questionable here, but he’s been out for about a month now, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he misses again. If he does play, I would assume he’s on some sort of minutes restriction to see how that heel can handle in-game activity. Below is how this team operates with Paul and Cam Johnson off of the court this season:
- Devin Booker – 31.7% usage rate; 1.29fpm
- Cameron Payne – 23.9% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 17.2% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 21.6% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the team, I don’t have a ton of interest in guys like Torrey Craig although he’s been in solid enough form as of late, on a big slate, I don’t see it and he’s been out for about a week now as well. Booker has come crashing down to Earth over his last two games but has been in awesome form. I have no issue with him as a spend-up if Paul is out again in this one. Deandre Ayton has also been in elite form with at least 37 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he’s another guy that will look awesome here, I like attacking the Celtics with opposing bigs.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Cameron Payne, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Derrick White
NBA Lock of the Day: Jordan Poole (DK – $6.5k; FD – $5.9k)
Even on a big slate, Poole feels like a free square tonight with Curry, Wiggins, and Draymond Green all out. He has a 35% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season and is averaging 38.9 DraftKings/37.6 FanDuel points per game when starting this season. He also gets a great matchup against the Jazz in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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