Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/30:
Dec 16, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Orlando Magic center Bol Bol (10) drives the ball against Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (36) in the first quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Was -4.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis came down to Earth a bit last time out and just feels like he’s priced right about where he should be. He would be more of a GPP guy but would see a boost if Beal is unable to go. Kyle Kuzma is in the same boat, on a big slate it’s just hard for me to prioritize these guys. Bradley Beal hasn’t been great relative to his price tag but it does continue to come down slowly, so I don’t hate getting to him in GPPs. He does come in as questionable as well, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Deni Avdija generally needs one of the main three to be out for me to have interest, so if Beal ends up sitting he would be a guy I’m more interested in, but I don’t see myself getting to him if they’re healthy tonight. Then Monte Morris is a solid secondary option if you happened to land on him as a last piece in. Then we get to the Magic… they will have eight available players tonight due to a bunch of suspensions being handed out after their tussle with the bad-boy Pistons. Below are the guys available tonight:
Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol -> this is probably your starting lineup.
Kevon Harris, Caleb Houston, and Admiral Schofield -> will come off of the bench.
The main guys I want exposure to are those starting guys due to the minutes they’ll play. We’ve seen it in the past, any time a team has an eight-man rotation, we need to target them in DFS simply because they’ll play all the minutes they can handle. This team as a whole is going to look great and those three bench guys are even viable at min price on both sites.
5-star play: Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Bol Bol
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Kevon Harris, Caleb Houston, Admiral Schofield
Deeper Value: Terrence Ross, Kevon Harris, Caleb Houston, Admiral Schofield
GPP Sleeper: Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, Kevon Harris, Caleb Houston, Admiral Schofield
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -2.0
Starting with the Suns, they’ll be without Devin Booker for a while as he deals with a groin injury, they’ll also be without Cam Payne and Landry Shamet again here. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:
- Chris Paul – 22.3% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 27.0% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Damion Lee – 15.3% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 20.4% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Josh Okogie – 19.0% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Duane Washington – 31.9% usage rate; 1.22 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Suns which is pretty condensed tonight with how shorthanded they are. Duane Washington Jr. saw his minutes come down last time out, but he’s still out there shooting all the shots he can in those minutes. He has at least 12 field goal attempts in three straight games and is probably in play as a pivot off of Magic value. Paul and Ayton make the most sense as spend-up options and both have been in solid form. From the Raptors, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as Fred VanVleet comes into this one as questionable after missing last night’s game, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. He was in great form before getting banged up last time out, so I have no issue going right back to him here in a pace-up matchup. Pascal Siakam has been unreal and is averaging 61.1 DraftKings points per game in his last five games, he’s going to look like an elite option yet again in this one. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby are similarly priced but I’ll prefer the form that Barnes is in over Anunoby, that said, they’re both solid options and should play all the minutes they can handle. Lastly, Gary Trent Jr. is a solid GPP option to round out the team but would get a boost if VanVleet were to sit.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: Duane Washington Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Duane Washington Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Malachi Flynn
Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -7.0
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, which means we’ll see Thomas Bryant start in his place going forward. His minutes have been a bit more volatile than I would love, but he’s still firmly in play here. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 34.8% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 29.6% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 18.7% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 20.8% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. I do think we need to monitor the Breaking News Feed for LeBron as he comes in as questionable, but it’s an elite matchup against this Hawks team if he’s able to give it a go. I think Schroder and Lonnie Walker are viable as well at their current price tags they’ve both produced nicely with Davis out so far. From the Hawks, Clint Capela will continue to be out for the Hawks and I would imagine Onyeka Okongwu gets the start in his place and has a 14.7% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Capela off of the court this season. Trae Young missed their last game but sounds like he’ll be good to go here, he’s always a guy I’ll have interest in any time he’s under $10k. Dejounte Murray had a nice game with Trae out last time, but will go back to being a GPP guy for me with him back tonight, he just feels overpriced for his volatility. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another guy who is priced about right with this team being fairly healthy amongst the usage-heavy guys, so he’s probably not a guy I get to a whole lot in this one. Then John Collins is a guy I like going right back to again here, he has at least 33 DraftKings points in three straight games and has benefitted from Capela being out.
5-star play: LeBron James, Trae Young
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Thomas Bryant, Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Onyeka Okongwu
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter
Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -8.5
Starting with the Pistons, they’ll be without Killian Hayes who was suspended for the altercation with the Magic while Marvin Bagley comes in as questionable with an illness, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. We saw Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey benefit big time from Killian being out late in that game and will-be guys I think we can go right back to here. Burks likely slides into the starting lineup and has a really nice price tag. The price tag on Bojan Bogdanovic feels like it’s right where it needs to be but is a fine GPP guy due to his ability to get hot from three-point range. Jaden Ivey has a 32.2% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Cade and Killian Hayes off of the court this season and gets a nice matchup in this one. Jalen Duren should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and has performed well with at least 33 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Then Isaiah Stewart was a big letdown last time out but is probably more of a GPP guy here if Bagley is able to give it a go. From Chicago, DeMar DeRozan has looked great as of late with at least 44.7 FanDuel points in four straight and had a massive game last time out, he’s going to be a great option again in this one. Then Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine had solid bounce-back games last time out and would-be guys I have no issue going right back to here. Outside of these main three guys, it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmo, and Coby White are fine options, but I would hope we get better value open up on this slate. I will say, they’ve been giving minutes to Andre Drummond with Vucevic on the court with him which is solidifying his minutes, he’s going to look way too cheap if he’s going to keep seeing 15+ minutes. He has at least 23 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: Saddiq Bey, Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White, Andre Drummond
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while Kyle Anderson comes in as questionable. Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels would see a nice boost in minutes if Anderson is forced to miss and both have been in good form. Anthony Edwards has been great as of late and has a 31.4% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and gets a nice matchup against a fast-paced Bucks team here. D’Angelo Russell is playing massive minutes right now and has been pretty consistent over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this spot. Rudy Gobert hasn’t been in the best form but would be a fine secondary center option for me on this slate, they’ll need his size in this one. Then Jaylen Nowell and Austin Rivers would make sense here as well, Rivers would be a bit more dependent on Anderson missing, however. From the Bucks, they’ll be without Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday again in this one. I would expect to see Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton slide into the starting lineup in their places. Below is how this team operates with Middleton and Jrue off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 40.6% usage rate; 1.74 fpm
- Jevon Carter – 18.6% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 24.0% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 19.0% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 16.5% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Pat Connaughton – 18.7% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
Giannis looks like the top option from this team and it’s really not all that close… we’re going to have all the value in the world on this slate, so getting to him in your roster construction will prove to be pretty easy. I do like these other big men in Portis and Lopez as well, they’ve been sneaky great this season. Then Connaughton and Carter make sense as pivots off of some of the chalkier value on this slate.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Jevon Carter, Pat Connaughton
Deeper Value: Jevon Carter, Pat Connaughton
GPP Sleeper: Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton
Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -1.0
Starting with the Sixers, it sounds like Tyrese Maxey will return in this one, but I’d assume he’s on some sort of minutes restriction as he’s been out for over a month now, so he’s not in play but will hurt De’Anthony Melton the most in this backcourt. Joel Embiid bounced back in a big way last time out against the Wizards and is going to be an elite spend-up option again in this one. James Harden will likely lose some usage with Maxey back as well, but I’ll wait to overreact to that until Maxey gets his full minutes back. Harden has at least 62 DraftKings points in three straight and will be a guy I have no issue getting to on this slate. Then Tobias Harris isn’t really a guy I want here… the price tag is too high considering his production. From the Pels, Zion Williamson returned last time out to play 34 minutes, so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward. He’s going to be a nice option under $10k yet again in this one. They’ll continue to be without Brandon Ingram, however. I think we can safely come off of CJ McCollum at this price tag with Zion back, he’s priced as if Zion is out. Jonas Valanciunas probably takes a hit as well as the minutes may not be as secure, but he’s been in pretty good form as of late, so he’s in play for GPPs at the very least, they’ll need his minutes against Embiid down low. Naji Marshall could be interesting on any other slate with Nance Jr. likely out and Herb Jones listed as questionable, but we have better options at cheaper price tags tonight.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Zion Williamson
4-star play: Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, CJ McCollum
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Den -4.0
Starting with the Heat, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler should both be good to go in this one and both are just kind of meh options for me. They’re both coming off of nice games which is good to see and don’t get me wrong, they’re good options, but I’m just not sure how much I’ll land in these price ranges on a stars and scrubs slate. I hate the price tag on Tyler Herro, he’s another guy I have a hard time getting to on this slate. Kyle Lowry kept it rolling last time out and makes sense as a mid-range option due to the consistency he’s shown this season. Then we get to filler pieces in Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin… none of these guys are priorities, however. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will look like one of those spend-up options that we can pair with all the value we have tonight. I don’t love the matchup, but he’s shown he’s pretty matchup-proof this season. Jamal Murray ended up sitting out last time out which got me all over Bones Hyland, but I would expect he plays tonight and would be a solid secondary option. Michael Porter Jr. has at least 35 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is always a guy I’ll have interest in for tournaments. Porter Jr. being back hurts Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown a bit, Brown more so than Gordon who had a massive game last time out. Gordon ended up missing last night’s game while Brown left the game early, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on them as we get closer to lock.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tyler Herro, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Por -3.0
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard had a down game last time out but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup against this Warriors team that is all sorts of banged up. He’s going to look like a nice option in this one. Jerami Grant is coming off of an absolutely massive game last time out and is a guy I like again here against an undersized Warriors frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic was my lock of the day last time the Blazers were on the court and he crushed with 67.75 DraftKings points… I like going right back to the well on him, he saw 36 minutes last time out. Then guys like Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart are both fine secondary options, they’ll both play all the minutes they can handle. From the Warriors, they’ll get Klay Thompson back in this one but will continue to be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 36.2% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Donte DiVincenzo – 15.6% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Klay Thompson – 25.4% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Draymond Green – 11.6% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Kevon Looney – 10.6% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Warriors in what should be a good game environment with a high total and a close spread. I don’t love the Poole price tag, but the upside is certainly there for him. Then we should see Moses Moody go back to the bench with Klay back in this one as well.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Kevon Looney
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 241.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -3.0
Starting with the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk returned last time out and played 26 minutes, so I wouldn’t imagine he’s limited moving forward and would be a solid option at this price tag in a great matchup. We kind of know the story on Lauri Markkanen by now, his price tag is annoying, but he still has a ceiling that we can’t ignore as we saw last time out, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. I do like going right back to Jordan Clarkson however, I love attacking this Kings team that loves to run and gun. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Mike Conley are both fine secondary options to round out this team… I would need the price tag on Collin Sexton to come down a bit more before I get back to him. From the Kings, surprisingly enough, Domantas Sabonis returned to play 38 minutes last time out with a broken hand… and looked great. He’s going to continue to look like a nice option yet again here despite dealing with that injury. De’Aaron Fox dropped a 50-burger as well and looks like a solid GPP option at the very least as well. Then the trio of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Malik Monk are all floating in that $5k range and are fine secondary tournament options in a good matchup. Lastly, Keegan Murray saw just 21 minutes last time out and would be more of an MME-type guy than anything with all the value we have on this slate.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Collin Sexton, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
NBA Lock of the Day: Terrence Ross (DK – $3.1k; FD – $3.7k)
I touched on it at the beginning of this article, but the Magic will have just eight available guys tonight due to a bunch of suspensions handed out from their scuffle with the Pistons. I would imagine Ross starts and plays all the minutes he can handle at a sub-$4k price tag. He’s not a guy that’s shy when it comes to shooting and usage and gets a great matchup. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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