Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/18:
Dec 16, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Dennis Schroder (17) reacts to a foul called against him during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins while it sounds like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson will be good to go in this one. Below is how this team operates with Curry and Wiggins off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 34.5% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Jonathan Kuminga – 19.7% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Donte DiVincenzo – 17.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Draymond Green – 11.1% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Klay Thompson – 24.1% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team in a pace-down spot against the Raptors. It seems like they’ve finally figured out what they have in DiVincenzo who has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five and should continue to see good minutes. Poole, Thompson, and Draymond all feel like they’re priced right about where they should be, so I don’t know if there’s a ton of meat on the bone with them, but they’re still firmly in play here. Kevon Looney dropped a 50 burger last time out and nearly triple-doubled, I don’t think I’ll chase that performance, but Kuminga and him make sense in the mid-range. From the Raptors, they’ll be without OG Anunoby yet again while Gary Trent Jr. comes in as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Pascal Siakam hasn’t been in the best form being held under 40 FanDuel points in three straight but gets a great matchup against this Warriors frontcourt and we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. Fred VanVleet has been on a heater with at least 44 DraftKings points in three straight games and at least 50 in two of those, I have no issue going right back to the well with him. Scottie Barnes kept it rolling last time out as well and makes a ton of sense here. The rest of this team would be more GPP darts than anything, but Trent Jr. would be someone who would play a ton of minutes if he’s able to give it a go in place of Anunoby.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet
4-star play: Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Donte DiVincenzo, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, Chris Boucher
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -8.0
Starting with the Nets, Kevin Durant came down to Earth last time out but gets an elite bounce-back spot in this one. I just think he’s priced right where he should be and doesn’t hit his ceiling as often as other stars due to needing to share the ball with Kyrie in the backcourt. Speaking of Kyrie Irving, he’s been in awesome form as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in four straight, and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. Nicolas Claxton and Ben Simmons are similar plays to me, Simmons probably has the higher ceiling while Claxton probably has the higher floor and the minutes should be there for both of them. Royce O’Neale hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten to all that much as of late, we know he’ll play all the minutes he can handle, but more of a secondary lineup filler kind of guy. Then the trio of TJ Warren, Joe Harris, and Seth Curry are fine GPP darts, one of them probably has a nice game here, but it’s hard to determine who it will be on a daily basis. From the Pistons, they’re a bit of a mess and I don’t see a ton that I absolutely love here even in a great matchup. Bojan Bogdanovic is the highest price guy on DraftKings while Killian Hayes is $100 more on FanDuel… both guys will look fine here but we have to understand the volatility they both carry. Jalen Duren should continue to start and has played good minutes while producing nicely as well. Opposing big men have crushed this Nets frontcourt, so I do think he’s very solid here with at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley are fine tournament options in the frontcourt too, but Duren is easily my favorite of the group. Then guys like Saddiq Bey and Alec Burks are fine GPP options as well.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Nicolas Claxton, Ben Simmons, Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren
Deeper Value: TJ Warren, Seth Curry, Joe Harris
GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, Joe Harris, Seth Curry, TJ Warren, Isaiah Stewart, Marvin Bagley, Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks
Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -1.5
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan came down to Earth last time out but has been in great form averaging 44 DraftKings points per game over his last five, and gets a great matchup in this one. Then I love the price tag on Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine as well, neither of them is coming off of great games, but they’re both too cheap. Outside of these main three guys it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, and Ayo Dosunmu/Coby White are fine options, but I don’t know that we need to get that cute on this slate. I will throw Andre Drummond’s name out there again, he has 10x upside at this price tag, he’s not a guy I want a ton of, but he’s worth getting 5-10% of if you’re multi-entering. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while D’Angelo Russell and Rudy Gobert come in as questionable again. We saw Naz Reid get the start for him last time out and absolutely crush, so if Gobert is out again we can go right back to the well, but I’ll operate under the assumption both of these guys are good to go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Anthony Edwards bounced back nicely last time out as well and gets a nice matchup again here with a Bulls team that has struggled all season long. Guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaylen Nowell aren’t sexy plays by any means, but they’ve both produced nicely as of late and make sense in all formats. Then assuming they play, both Gobert and Russell look solid here, they’ve both been very consistent as of late.
5-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson, Jaylen Nowell
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Andre Drummond, Kyle Anderson, Jaylen Nowell
Charlotte Hornets @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Den -8.5
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball kept it rolling last time out and hasn’t really been restricted since returning from injury. I love going right back to him here, he has legit triple-double upside at a nice price tag. Guys like Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre are a bit overpriced for me as this team begins to get healthy with Ball and Gordon Hayward re-entering the rotation. Speaking of Hayward, he returned last time out to play 29 minutes, so I would think that’s his floor in this one, and makes sense at this price tag. Mason Plumlee has been sneaky consistent as of late and they’ll need his size down low against Jokic in this one and makes sense as a secondary center option. Then I think PJ Washington is interesting as well due to the upside he brings at a nice price tag. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has at least 80 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and should absolutely destroy this Charlotte frontcourt tonight. I’ve been attacking the Hornets with opposing big men all season and that won’t change in this spot, he’s an elite spend-up option here. Jamal Murray continues to look good as well and the price tag hasn’t really moved, there’s still some meat on the bone while Michael Porter Jr. is still out. Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown will continue to benefit from Porter Jr. being out as well and should keep playing all the minutes they can handle. Then Bones Hyland is more of a GPP dart than anything, but on a short slate, he definitely has the upside.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Bones Hyland
Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -4.5
Starting with the Wizards, we don’t have a Washington injury report yet but I would think Bradley Beal returns here after sitting yesterday, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. Kristaps Porzingis dropped 51.3 FanDuel points in this spot earlier this season and makes sense in all formats. Kyle Kuzma revenge game! There are also some rumors of the Lakers having an interest in bringing him back in a trade, so maybe a bit of a showcase for him in this one? That said, I think he’s a bit overpriced if Beal is back in there. I love the Beal price tag if he’s able to go without a restriction and makes sense in all formats. I have no issue going right back to Deni Avdija as well, he’s playing a ton if minutes and has been in good form as of late. Then guys like Jordan Goodwin and Monte Morris will be guys I’m underweight on if Beal is able to play. From the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis in this one, I would expect to see Thomas Bryant start in his place, and makes perfect sense as a value option on this slate. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 34.1% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 30.3% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 19.6% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 20.8% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. I would imagine Bryant is a guy I get a bunch of on this slate at that price tag in a revenge game against his old squad. Westbrook and LeBron look great as well and will demand all the usage in this offense.
5-star play: LeBron James, Thomas Bryant
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder
Deeper Value: Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Kuzma, Dennis Schroder
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