Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/17:
Dec 15, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (23) reacts after his shot was blocked for the final play of the second half against the New Orleans Pelicans at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -4.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Mavs, Luka Doncic has been awesome as of late but gets a tough matchup against this Cleveland defense in this one. He’s still going to be a top spend-up option on the slate, but the matchup may be enough for me to be a decision-maker if you’re debating him and another guy. I was all over Christian Wood last night with Maxi Kleber out, and we should see something similar tonight. He has at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games and any time those minutes are secure, I’m going to be running him out there, especially at this price tag. Spencer Dinwiddie is a fine option, but not a guy I think we absolutely need to get to, I’m not sure how much I’ll get to him at this price range. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been a bit more volatile as of late and would be a GPP-only guy here as well. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been good as of late with at least 47 DraftKings points in three of his last four, and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Darius Garland has been a bit more volatile as of late as well, but the price tag has come down, so he’s becoming more playable, but still probably more of a tournament guy for me. Jarrett Allen had a rough go of it last time out but I love attacking this Mavs frontcourt with opposing big men, so he’ll look good here. The price tag on Evan Mobley has gotten better and is a guy I have no issue getting to here as well. Caris LeVert is more of a tournament dart with Mitchell back and the rest of the starting rotation healthy.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Christian Wood
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris LeVert, Darius Garland
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -8.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant looks awesome here he continues to look great this season and has a 36.2% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute with Desmond Bane off of the court. He has at least 48 FanDuel points in three straight. I like going back to Jaren Jackson Jr. as well, he got bit by the blowout bug last time out playing just 13 minutes against the Bucks combined with a little foul trouble. He’s going to look good here as well now that his price is coming down. Dillon Brooks will continue to be a GPP option due to the volatility on him but will continue to see a boost with Bane out. Then Steven Adams is interesting as well as a mid-range center option. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look great and should be a fun matchup with Morant on the other end. He’s finally below $10k again on DraftKings which is hard to ignore. Josh Giddey just feels like he’s priced right about where he should be right now and is a guy I have no issue with getting to if you land on him and makes your roster construction work. Lu Dort left the game early last night so I would imagine he comes in very questionable here, if he’s forced to miss it will help sure up the minutes for some of these other wing guys. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will continue to be out as Darius Bazley and Kenrich Williams will likely come in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re out again. Aleksej Pokusevski is a guy I’ll go right back to if that’s the case… his price tag continues to drop and they keep losing bodies, so at some point, they’ll have no choice but to give him the minutes, he’s a great value option if those guys are out again. Then Jalen Williams looks solid, the minutes have been there for him which is the big thing I’m looking for on this team.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aleksej Pokusevski (If Bazley/Williams are out)
4-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: Aleksej Pokusevski
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams
Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.5
Starting with the Jazz, they’ll continue to be without Collin Sexton which is negated by Mike Conley moving back into the starting lineup. Lauri Markkanen is a fine option but I just don’t love the price tag, he almost needs a ceiling game in order to pay off this salary… not quite a ceiling game, but something above his median outcome. That said, they’ll need his scoring in this one. Jordan Clarkson bounced back in a big way last time out dropping 57 DraftKings points and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. I love going back to Kelly Olynyk here, he’s getting consistent minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble which may prove to be difficult against Giannis and Lopez down low. Malik Beasley kept it rolling even with Markkanen back last time out, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Then we can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt who came down to Earth last time out, but they’ll need his size in this one especially if Olynyk or Walker Kessler gets into any sort of foul trouble. Speaking of Kessler, he’s been in good form as well and is getting consistent run. From the Bucks, they’ll get Jrue Holiday back in this one but will be without Khris Middleton. Below is how this team operates with Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo –38.9% usage rate; 1.70 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 26.2% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 22.0% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.0% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 15.6% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
I would expect Jevon Carter sticks in the starting lineup with Middleton out unless they want to keep size out there and throw Pat Connaughton out there. I would prefer the price tag on Connaughton, but I think it’s more likely Carter is the guy and Connaughton stays with the second unit. This team just didn’t have it last game as they got blown out by the Grizzlies, those games happen to every team, I’m not looking too much into it, these guys will look great again here.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jordan Clarkson, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Pat Connaughton
GPP Sleeper: Walker Kessler, Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Por -4.5
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard came down to Earth last time out but has been great since returning from injury. He gets an elite bounce-back spot here against a bad Houston defense, so I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Anfernee Simons is priced a bit too high for me with Dame back in the rotation, so he’ll be more of a tournament guy. Jerami Grant has been much more volatile as of late relative to his price tag. We know the minutes will be there but I just don’t love the price, so he’s more of a secondary option for me. Jusuf Nurkic has cooled off a bit as of late, but again, this is a great bounce-back spot for most of this team. He should do whatever he wants down low in this one against this Rockets frontcourt. Josh Hart comes in as probable, he will look like a nice mid-range option to round out this team. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. looked good last time out against the Heat and I love the price tag on him right now, he’s going to look great in all formats. Alperen Sengun has been a lot more volatile as of late and gets a tougher matchup down low with Nurkic in this one, he’ll be more of a tournament guy for me. Jalen Green is similar to Porter Jr., he has at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last five and I love the price tag in this matchup. Jabari Smith Jr. has shown some volatility on the season, which is to be expected from a rookie, but he has a 17.7% usage rate and 0.84 fantasy points per minute on the season. Then Eric Gordon should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and looks like a good option as a value piece here.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Kevin Porter Jr.
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith
Deeper Value: Eric Gordon
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Alperen Sengun, Eric Gordon
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -3.5
Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll continue to be without Brandon Ingram. We’ll continue to see Herb Jones and Trey Murphy in the starting lineup with him out. Below is how this team operates with Ingram off of the court this season:
- Zion Williamson – 29.6% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- CJ McCollum – 26.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 15.9% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 24.7% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Dyson Daniels – 12.0% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Herb Jones – 18.0% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
It’s not a great matchup for any of these guys but Zion and McCollum are pretty easily my favorite options, Zion has been incredible with Ingram out as of late. I’m kind of sick of riding the Jonas Valanciunas train, so I can’t say I love him here even as his price tag continues to fall. That said, he does produce nicely on a per-minute basis if he can stay out of foul trouble and get the minutes. Larry Nance Jr. is the guy who’s been performing better in the front court and is even cheaper than Joe Val, so no issue going right back to him here as well. From the Suns, they’ll be without Deandre Ayton again in this one. Bismack Biyombo started in his place last time out but it was Jock Landale who had the big game. I have no issue going back to both of them here, they’re in a similar price range, but I think I’ll chase that Landale performance and give him the slight edge. Devin Booker has been held under 30 FanDuel points in four straight games, he’s going to be more of a GPP guy until we see him bounce back for me. Chris Paul saw a big price bump last time out but ended up playing well dropping a 50-burger on the Clippers. We know Mikal Bridges is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle and looks like a great secondary option while Torrey Craig is a fine lineup filler to round out your lineup.
5-star play: Zion Williamson, Bismack Biyombo, Jock Landale
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: Bismack Biyombo, Jock Landale
GPP Sleeper: Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels, Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciuans, Larry Nance, Torrey Craig
NBA Lock of the Day: Jock Landale (DK – $3.9k; FD – $5.2k)
The Suns will be without Deandre Ayton yet again in this one which will open up minutes in their frontcourt for a guy like Mr. Landale. I will say, I like the price tag a lot more on DraftKings for obvious reasons, but he’s firmly in play on FanDuel as well, hopefully, it takes some ownership off of him. I would expect Biyombo starts, but Landale was the better producer off of the bench last time out and saw more minutes. He has a 20% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Ayton off of the court this season and looks like one of the better value options on the slate. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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