10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Justin Fields – 9.86FD pts: 1x value

Jared Goff– 25.7 FD pts: 3.7x value (#2 QB on the slate)

Dak Prescott – 28.98 FD pts: 3.9x value (#1 QB on the slate)

Joe Mixon –  14.3 FD pts: 2x value  

Alvin Kamara – 18FD pts: 2.4x value 

Devonta Smith– 27.3 FD pts: 3.6x value (#2 WR on the slate)

Gabe Davis 10 FD pts: 1.6x value

Brandin Cooks – 11.4 FD pts: 1.7x value

Chig Okonkwo – 1.5 FD pts: 0.3x value

Washington Commanders – 1 FD pts: 0.3x value

Oh baby! Feels good to have a smash week before the end of the season! #1 AND #2 QB in the article? Heck ya ladies and gentleman we are rolling! #2 WR? Trust in Devonta and get paid off!

Solid the rest of the way besides trap play Chig Okonkwo that I fell for and Brock Purdy proved me wrong and continues to look like a legitimate NFL Quarterback.

This week things get very interesting with potential playoff implications, players sitting, all that jazz so it’s important to monitor ownership as we get towards Sunday because things could change drastically. If one of these players pops off in the ownership I’ll do my best to update this article but know that I’m always available in the DFS Army VIP Discord  for questions and slate strategy talk!

Remember, DFS is always a process. What worked two seasons ago, doesn’t work now, and what works now, likely won’t next year. We need to constantly adjust our process and be willing to learn. There is no magic code. There is no ‘trick’ to winning. There is no secret. You do the same things every week, you take stands, you learn from your mistakes, celebrate your wins, and keep grinding, because that really is the ONLY way to be successful at DFS long term.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Mac Jones QB New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 4.5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $6400

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

You come here for the low owned guys who could pop off, and this week my friends, my favorite guy who could put up a big score is Mac Jones.

Now let me get one thing straight, I think that the Pats are dumb not to start Bailey Zappe but since they have so much capital tied up in Jones, I get why they aren’t. Jones has been fairly consistent lately and looked pretty strong last week against the Bengals who are a solid defense. Gets a prime matchup against the Dolphins who are the worst in the NFL against the pass.

We’ve seen him sling it against bad defenses like the Vikings, throwing for 382 yards and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that again here and he’s CHEAP. Like so cheap. Dead min on DK.

The big question with Jones is who do you pair him with? Jakobi Meyers is the safe play and I honestly don’t even hate pairing him Rhamondre Stevenson and just trying to lock in all the TD’s. Hunter Henry could be a sneaky option too. I don’t think I’ll be chasing Kendrick Bourne though.

Davis Mills QB Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $6300

I’m going to be right one of these times on the Giraffe. Might as well be in the second to last week of the year. Gets a prime matchup against the Jags and they are going to likely be resting players (mostly on offense but wouldn’t be surprised to see more backups get in on defense). That leads to the potential for a big game for Mills.

Now let’s be honest, a big game for Mills means over 200 yards passing and maybe 2 TD’s but that gets you there potentially at this price point. Pair him with Brandin Cooks and you can get nuts with the rest of your lineup.

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $6400/FD $7600

His teammate is getting all the love here for the MVP (Justin Jefferson) but I really think that Cousins should legitimately be in the discussion. He has been elite all year and I expect that trend to continue here on the road against the Packers.

Last time he played outdoors in tougher conditions he threw the ball 50 times and had 4 turnovers, but that volume is exciting for me. The Packers ‘think’ they are a good secondary but JJettas is going to absolutely torch Jaire Alexander again.

Cousins is one of my favorite pay up options this week that is going to be lower owned. He has 30 point FD upside and his floor is solid right around 20.

Pair him with Jefferson, and potentially even TJ Hockenson who has been a monster lately. Don’t hate a full game stack here at all.

Yahoo NFL DFS Strategy for Week 17 | Picks, Tips, and Podcast for Winning Lineups

Zack Moss RB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6900

Moss’ time to shine. Was the clear cut number one last week for the Colts and even though I like the Giants defense this week as you’ll see if you keep reading, I have to get some exposure to Moss.

12 carries in a game that the Colts were behind and he averaged 5.4 yards per carry. If he can get to 15ish carries and 1-2 targets he’s going to smash value, particularly on DK and if he finds the end zone he is a legitimate threat for the nuts on both sites.

David Montgomery RB Chicago Bears

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $6900/FD $7500

My name is Josh Thomas aka DFSUpNorth and if there is ANYTHING  I’ve learned in the 2022 NFL season it’s that if you want to make money you play running backs against the Detroit Lions.

Clearly not everyone else has learned the same thing as me because Monty’s ownership should be double what it is. Khalil Herbert being back doesn’t scare me and even if he is a vulture, the Lions gave up OVER 300 YARDS RUSHING LAST WEEK TO THE… CHECKS NOTES…CAROLINA PANTHERS.

Sorry I got excited there.

Play Monty. Win Money.

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Devonta Smith WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $7100/FD $7800

With Gardner Minshew we may see the target share between Smith and Brown get a little more even, and potentially even lean Smith’s way as Minshew isn’t afraid to let it rip and Smith is a great deep ball guy.

That’s what I said about Smith last week and it played out exactly like I said it would, with Smith absolutely smashing the Cowboys and being the second highest scoring WR on the slate.

Right back to the well here. Saints are a good secondary in name only and can be torched by the right receivers. They will not be able to contain both AJ Brown and Smith so it’s a bit of pick your poison and for me I’m going with the wiry speed of Smith here to have another huge game.

Romeo Doubs WR Green Bay Packers

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $4700/FD $5900

Christian Watson is made of glass and that means that Romeo Doubs will likely draw the start across from Allen Lazard this week as the Pack squares up against the Vikings and their god awful secondary.

I fully expect this ownership to climb as the week goes on but he’s so cheap you almost need to just lock him in, especially in cash games or smaller single entry as a block. I kinda wish Watson would play so we could keep the ownership down but it doesn’t look likely.

Has really excelled this year when given the opportunity. Not going to smash with yardage because that’s just not who he is as a receiver and what this offense does anymore but in a potential shoot out there’s a good chance we see him rack up a bunch of targets and if he finds the end zone he’ll crush value.

Taysom Hill TE New Orleans Saints FANDUEL ONLY

Ownership: DK <1%/FD <1%

Salary: DK $4900/FD $6800

We aren’t playing Taysom in the QB Spot on DK. I wouldn’t do that if he was starting at QB, but at the TE spot on FD I really don’t mind taking some chances here.

The prices is mega high and in all likelihood the guy I have listed next is going to outscore but he has multiple TD upside and the Saints have nothing to lose using him. Dalton is not the answer at QB and they know that. They may as well try some stuff with Taysom here.

Floor is zero but the ceiling is massive, could definitely be the highest scoring TE on the slate. Perfect GPP/Milly Maker punt.

Juwan Johnson TE New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $5700

Johnson is essentially a WR for the Saints and has been one of Andy Dalton’s favorite targets. Throw last week out the window because it was a million below in Cleveland and they just weren’t throwing the ball that much.

Philly is obviously a tough matchup but TE/Slot is a decent spot to attack them and with the pressure Dalton will be under from their front 7 I can see Johnson getting a bunch of short passes in a hurry.

I’m playing Hill here on FD in the TE spot and Johnson on DK because the price is so cheap for his potential upside.

New York Giants DST (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $3900/FD $4700

Anyone else watch the Nick Foles led Colts last week and see him throw three picks and take seven sacks? Just me? Apparently according to the ownership here.

This is a smash spot for the Giants Defense and I’m not overthinking this regardless of if the ownership gets crazy high.

Geek’s NFL DFS FanDuel Week 17 First Look

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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