10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Jimmy Garoppolo – 4% – 13.28 FD Pts

Taylor Heincke – 2% –  12.42 FD pts

Joe Burrow – 8% – 18 FD pts

Michael Carter– 19% – 4.6 FD pts  (injured and became chalk after James Robinson ruled out)

Cam Akers – 1% – 3.7  FD pts 

Nick Chubb – 5%  – 19.7 FD pts 

Demarcus Robinson– 2% – 2.2 FD pts 

Joshua Palmer –  13% – 8.1 FD pts 

Brandon Aiyuk– 11% – 9 FD pts 

Kansas City Chiefs – 9% – 11 FD pts

We got back on track a little here with all three of our QB’s putting up respectable scores, but not GPP winning scores, for that you needed to play New York Jets backup Mike White who smashed. And if you were a DFS Army VIP you knew that we were all over him on Sunday morning.

At RB you need Josh Jacobs and his ridiculous stat line this week, but Nick Chubb finished the week second in FD points which is a solid result. Carter was in line for a massive game with Robinson ruled out as noted above, but he ended up getting injured and never came back in.

At WR, despite massive volume in the previous week, Demarcus Robinson failed to impress. Joshua Palmer had a nice day but didn’t find the end zone and an apparently healthy Keenan Allen smashed in that offense.

The Chiefs were the third highest scoring defense behind the Dolphins and 49ers who both smashed, but hit value regardless.

Another week and another chance to turn some low owned players into milly maker winners! Let’s get to it!

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6800

There are a lot of obvious choices for QB this week (Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence), and they should suck up all the ownership, while guys with tons of upside like Marcus Mariota will go underowned in great spots.

The Steelers can’t stop anyone throwing the ball, and while Mariota doesn’t huck it up a ton, he has pass TD upside and is averaging about 1.5 TD’s a game over his last 5. That combined with the big time rushing upside that he has gets him in the ball park of 20ish FD points with a mid ceiling game, and mid 25 FD points with a ceiling game. Thats anywhere from 4 to 5x which would absolutely smash at this price point.

Can run him naked but as you’ll see in a bit I do love one of his receivers (I’m not typing it out because it takes too long).

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $5300/FD $6800

This is always an interesting situation to target. The offensive pieces in this game are going to garner a TON of ownership. Amon Ra St. Brown, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones all look to be well over 10% owned. Yet, Goff is sitting here at only 6%/5%.

St. Brown is projecting over 20% owned. Who is throwing him the ball?! 1 point spread, 51 point total, Goff is going to get his here at low ownership. And he’s shown that he can smash against poor defenses, which this Jags group is.

Love a good Goff/St. Brown stack with Etienne run back. Gets tons of correlated leverage in this game. If you really wanna get wild DJ Chark and Kalif Raymond are viable options or you could hope for a punt TE TD to Brock Wright. 

Daniel Jones QB New York Giants

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $5500/FD $7200

I have a problem. And that problem is playing running QB’s at low ownership in good matchups. We already wrote up my boy Mariota above and now we have Danny Dimes himself here against the Washington Commanders in what is setting up to be a massive game for the Wild Card spot in the playoffs (and potentially the NFC East). We should see if the Giants are pretenders or contenders here and it’s likely going to come down to Danny Dimes arm, and more importantly, his legs.

Practiced without a knee brace this week which is a great sign for his rushing upside here. Washington plays fast (and turns the ball over) so we will likely see Jones get lots of reps in what should be a close game. The question is, what does he do with it? The unfortunate thing is that the Giants play to win and that can take away some upside from Jones.

He’s throwing the ball well, albeit to scrubs, and with the rushing upside I don’t think you can go wrong at this price/ownership point. No reason to really pair him with anyone but Richie James is super cheap. Daniel Bellinger will potentially be back at TE too which is a big plus for Jones.

Yahoo DFS NFL Strategy for Week 13 | Picks, Tips, and Podcast for Winning Lineups

Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $8000/FD $9600

Prime spot here against the awful Texans front 7. Deshaun Watson will likely get the start here and I would imagine that in his first game back we see the Browns lean on the run.

Chubb could have a seriously monster day here and the ownership is going to be too low. My preferred build this week is a cheap QB, cheap WR, and 3 expensive RB’s on FD (probably don’t need 3 RB’s on DK) and Chubb is going to be a key part of that.

Dalvin Cook RB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 19%

Salary: DK $7200/FD $7600

Way too cheap on FD and his ownership reflects that but Cook is an elite play on both sites. The Vikings play EVERYONE close, doesn’t matter if it’s Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Kevin Alan starting for the Jets, this game will be within a TD and that is good new for Cook who will get work all game.

I was actually surprised the ownership wasn’t higher on DK too. The price isn’t ‘that’ high and he has seen a big uptick in his involvement in the passing game. Was third on the team in targets last week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him surpass Adam Thielen this week.

The Jets secondary is solid and while no one can stop Justin Jefferson, Sauce Gardner is going to give him a game here and that too is great for Cook. Really one of my favorite plays this week.

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Christian Watson WR Green Bay Packers

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $6500

I was a massive Watson hater as soon as the Packers picked him. Partially because I live near NDSU where he goes to school and their fans/the media coverage is obnoxious, and partially because I thought he would struggle with the physicality at the NFL level, even though he’s got elite speed. His drop on the opening play of the season only reinforced that thought for me. That being said, what he’s done the last few weeks has been really impressive and I’m not afraid to admit that I was wrong.

Rodgers injury is obviously concerning but I think he plays (but we won’t know til late because he’s a drama queen). If Jordan Love does end up starting I may switch from Watson to Allan Lazard though because he is a better fit with Love than Watson is.

Olamide Zaccheaus WR Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $3600/FD $5500

Welcome to the Mega Cheap WR’s section of the article. Zaccheaus smashed last week with 8 targets bringing in 5 for 91 yards. Mariota doesn’t throw the ball a ton, but with Kyle Pitts out for the season there are a decent amount of targets to go around.

Look this is a super punt, but the spot is great against the Steelers and their trash secondary and Zaccheaus is the clear number two option at receiver behind Drake London. If he can find the end one he will smash here. Solid stack piece with Mariota, but I don’t mind him as a cheapie one off.

Corey Davis WR New York Jets

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $4100/FD $5500

For me this week, it’s all about the correlated leverage we’re getting on the field this week if Davis smashes. Garrett Wilson will be one of the top 5 owned receivers on the slate against the Vikings, so if Davis smashes it’s likely that Wilson doesn’t and we get that double whammy going.

Davis had some good games with Mike White last year, including 7 for 93 in a tough game against the Bills so there’s some chemistry there.

Too cheap and too low owned for the potential production.

Quez Watkins WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $3800/FD $5600

Hurts Hearts Quez. I want a shirt that says that. It’s true though. He’s had TD’s in back to back weeks and went for 80 yards three weeks ago. We haven’t seen the Eagles on a main slate much the last few weeks so we haven’t had the opportunity to play Watkins but he’s been smashing.

He clearly doesn’t play the same role as Dallas Goedert but the targets that are missing from Goedert have seemed to go a bit Watkins way.

Tennessee is terrible, especially on deep balls and we could see Watkins snag a deep one for a TD and end up in the nuts here.

Houston Texans DST (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $2900/FD $4900

Ok this is a SUPER PUNT because the Texans are pretty atrocious at defense. Actually, they aren’t that bad from a scoring perspective they just can’t stop anyone running the ball.

They are playing against Deshaun Watson at home though… You know they are going to be ready with their ears pinned back to get after him and sack him in what is likely to be a super hostile environment. Think this is a sneaky spot for a defense to score pretty highly.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

Geek’s NFL DFS FanDuel Week 13 First Look

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