Welcome to the week 9 main slate. We had a decent week 8 in this column. Henry and Hopkins smashed. Kittle and Cousins were fine, but not necessary to win anything. Mostert busted as leverage when all the Miami points came from the passing game. Ehlinger stunk, finishing with 8.54 DK points, but he served his purpose in cash. His $4000 salary allowed me to fit Tyreek, Henry, DJ Moore, who along with the lock Tony Pollard were enough to finish (barely) above the cash line in all my double ups.
Week 9 features a theme which been quite common this season. The challenge is not finding good running back plays, it choosing between all the viable ones. We have Austin Ekeler (assuming he plays) who has been target monster of late as a great pay up option at $8800. Dalvin Cook ($7800) and Aaron Jones ($7400) are fairly priced coming off good games. The 6K range is chock full of plays that project well such as Mixon, Etienne, Rhamrondre, Kenny Walker, and last week’s GPP winner D’Onta Foreman.
If that is not enough, with Jonathon Taylor announced out, we now have Deon Jackson as a dirt cheap ($5000 on FD and $5200 on DK) volume play.
I am going give you my favorite running back of this group, along the other position plays that will make up my core.
Oct 30, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) passes against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
1- Travis Etienne, $6300 on DraftKings
We currently have Etienne as the highest owned RB on the slate at around 26%. This is chalk I am willing to eat. With James Robinson traded to the Jets, Etienne ran for 156 yards on 24 carries against the Broncos in London. Both were career highs. He has an even better matchup this week at home against a Raiders team traveling east, that just gave up 42.80 DK points to the Etienne prototype, Alvin Kamara.
Because of his role in the passing game, Etienne can be used in an affordable stack with his former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence, or as a one off.
2- Justin Fields, $5300 on DraftKings
I love this game environment and think it plays over it’s 45.5 point total. The Miami offense is humming and Chicago just traded away two of their best defensive players in Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. I’ll certainly have some Tua ($6700) stacks in GPPs, but they aren’t particularly cheap. I like the $1400 savings that Fields provides as discount way into this game.
I read some interesting Justin Fields stats courtesy of Fantasy Points’ Jake Tribbey. Over his last 4 games Fields is 5th in fantasy points (21.1) amongst all QBs and 1st in both rushing yards per game (69.2) and carries (10.5). He just posted 26.0 DK points at Dallas and 24.4 at New England. Those were both tougher matchups than he faces this week at home against the Dolphins.
The addition of Chase Claypool should only help Fields’ fantasy output. The former Steeler may help draw some coverage away from Darnell Mooney ($4800). I don’t think it’s crazy to stack Fields with Mooney, but I will mostly be running him naked. That said, I will not make a Fields lineup that doesn’t feature either a Tyreek or Waddle run back.
3- DJ Moore $5800 on DraftKings or Terrace Marshall $3900 on DraftKings
I never would have thought that PJ Walker would be the tide that lifts all boats, but here we are. In the last two weeks, with the former XFL star under center and CMC in San Francisco, Moore is averaging over 25 DK points. I don’t believe DraftKings has priced him up enough. I’ve been overweight Terrace Marshall in best ball for two years now and it feels like I might finally see some return,. The trades of McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson have opened up usage for the former LSU Tiger, who put up big numbers in college while sharing the field with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jeffereson.
Marshall posted career highs with 9 targets (including 3 in the red zone) and 87 yards. The Bengals are missing both of their starting corners in Mike Hilton and Chidobe Awuzie (low key one of the best in the league). I think Moore and Marshall can exploit the Cincinnati backups and I will be using a decent amount of both. I’d obviously prefer to play Moore, but have no problem pivoting down to Marshall where I need the salary.
4- Gerald Everett $4800 on DraftKings
In his VIP Player’s Club video the Geek talked his love for Josh Palmer ($5100 on DK). With no Mike Williams or Keenan Allen, he thinks we can expect a solid 8-12 targets for Palmer. I agree and will probably play Palmer in cash, but in GPPs Everett is my favorite way to take advantage in the Chargers’ vacated targets. Everett has the second highest ceiling projection (18.27) of any TE on the slate. He trails on Kyle Pitts (18.9) in same game, but I think Herbert will throw the ball a lot more than Mariota.
Everett has seen at least 6 target in 5 of his 7 games this year and much of that was with Mike Williams in the lineup. Palmer is the safe volume play, but in GPPs in think Everett has more positional upside and comes at a decent ownership discount.
5- Rhamondre Stevenson, $6200 on DraftKings
I don’t understand why the DK pricing algorithm hates Rhamondre Stevenson. He is averaging 23.18 DK points over the last 4 games and somehow got a price decrease this week as a 6 point home favorite against the Colts. Damien Harris is listed as questionable after missing most of the practice week with an unspecified illness. I actually hope Harris plays because I think it will drive down Stevenson’s ownership a bit.
Even is Harris plays, he is unlikely to be 100%. Rhamondre has looked like the better back all season and he will be featured here. Bill Belichick is known for giving young quarterbacks fits and I don’t expect Sam Ehlinger to be the exception in his 2nd NFL start. The games script should set up for Rhamondre to smash.
6- Aaron Jones $7400 on DraftKings
As bad as the Detroit defense has been this season, I don’t think you are going to want to make a lot of lineups that don’t feature at least one Green Bay Packer. This seems like a get right spot for Aaron Rodgers and company in the dome. Jones has averaged 25.65 DK the last two weeks in tougher matchups at Washington and Buffalo. Jones has also out-touched A.J. Dillion 41-15 in that period.
Big Bob Toyan, Romeo Doubs, and even Allen Lazard (if he goes) are all viable Packer plays this week, but we’ve seen Aaron Jones put up the type of ceiling scores that you need to win a GPP. I am going to have plenty of exposure to the GB RB in tournaments and I am considering him for cash.
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