Welcome to the week 12 NFL main slate. It is a funky one. We’ve got a couple of obviously under priced RBs that will be chalky. We’ve got Mike White, Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen, Bryce Perkins, and possibly Trevor Siemian all starting at quarterback. Miami (30.5) and KC (28.75) have the two highest implied team totals, but they are each favored by at least two touchdowns.
Do we fade or play the chalk? Do we stack the potential blowouts or look for more competitive spots? Let’s get to my Simple Six core plays and figure it out.
1- Jeff Wilson Jr., $5900 on DraftKings
I planned on playing Wilson heavily before were knew Mostert was out. I wish Mostert was playing, because Wilson had already taken over the lead role. Now he is going to be the highest owned player on the slate. That said, this is chalk I am willing to eat in cash and most GPP lineups. We all know that Houston has the worst run defense in the league. Game script should be in his favor as a 14 favorite.
The only lineups I will make without Wilson are Tua stacks with Tyreek and/or Waddle. Miami is going to put up points one way or another. If this game winds up being closer than anticipated and all the points come through the passing game, the Tua stacks will be nice leverage off the chalk Wilson.
2- Rachaad White $5100 on DraftKings and $6400 on Fanduel
I look at Rachaad White as Tony Pollard lite. He is an explosive young running back who can win in the passing game, but doesn’t get the opportunities because he is blocked by a big money veteran. We saw what Pollard did when Zeke missed time, now White will get his chance as Uncle Lenny sits out.
White is in a great spot against a Cleveland team that give us the second most fantasy points to running backs in the league. Similar to the situation above, I will be playing Rachaad in most of my lineups, with the exception of a couple of low-owned Brady stacks. The projections and optimizers are certainly going to favor White, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if two future Hall of Famers, 5% owned Brady and 7% owned Mike Evans blew up instead of the chalk RB, essentially making his first start.
3- Lamar Jackson $8000 on DraftKings
Lamar was already my favorite GPP quarterback based on ownership, and that was before watching our VIP Tournament Tactics Podcast. Both Bobby and Burns like Ravens’ QB as well. Jackson has the highest ceiling projection (35.17) in our Domination Station of any QB on the slate, but he’s only the 8th highest owned at 5.1%.
No one wants to play Lamar because he basically hasn’t gotten there since week 3. This could be the week for an overdue breakout. I think this game plays higher than its 43.5 point total. I like that this game is in Jacksonville. The weather should be good and the offense should have a good game plan coming off the bye. I am going skinny stack Lamar with Andrews, run it back with Christian Kirk, and hope we get a low-owned shoot out in the Florida sun.
4- Garret Wilson $4300 on DraftKings
Wilson has the highest points per dollar projection (2.99) of any WR in our Domination Station by a fairly wide margin. I am willing to throw out his 3.2 DK performance last week when Bill Belichick took Zach Wilson’s soul and ultimately his job. In Wilson’s two previous starts he posted 17.9 and 20.5 DK points.
I look for the quarterback switch to Mike White to energize the team and provide a boost to all his receiving options. None should get more targets or have a higher ceiling than Wilson. We’ve seen what he is capable of with a non-Zach Wilson QB, posting 33.0 DraftKings in week 2 with Flacco under center.
Wilson should have no trouble getting loose against a bad Chicago defense.
5- Nico Collins $4100 on DraftKings
The last two weeks in this column we told you to play DPJ and he rewarded you with 32.0 total DK points. I’ll again have some shares of DPJ, who is still too cheap at $4800, but I’ll have more exposure to his former college teammate at Michigan. Nico Collins has 17 targets and 10 receptions in his last two games.
As I discussed above I am going have plenty of Miami exposure in the form of Jeff Wilson and Tua stacks. I fully expect Houston to be chasing and I like Nico Collins as a dirt cheap runback.
6- Treylon Burks $4200 DraftKings
Burks is another talented young receiver who is under priced on DraftKings. In his first game back off the IR, Tennessee worked the rookie in slowly verse Denver and he finished with only 3 grabs for 24. The reigns were taken off last week against Green Bay when he caught 7 of 8 targets for 111 yards. All were team highs. Much of this production came against an elite corner in Jaire Alexander.
I look for Burks to build on this performance in a competitive home game against the Bengals, that could be a playoff preview.
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I need to take a bye week with this column next weekend, as I will be in Jamaica on a long overdue vacation with the girlfriend. I won’t really be able to play or write about DFS. I hope you guys ship all the monies while I’m gone!