Welcome to the week 10 main slate. The season is flying by. Last week I wrote up Justin Fields in this column, made him the cover image, locked him in cash, and was way overweight in GPPs. I mostly played him naked or stacked with Kmet and ran in back with Tyreek. All good choices. If the content on this site was any indicator, it seemed like the entire DFS Army staff and membership was on Fields.
Unfortunately, I didn’t have Mixon and played way too much of the Carolina defense, which scored a robust -2.00 DK points. Thus, my big overweight stand on Fields led to nothing more than a slightly better than break even week.
Thankfully, a new week means a new slate to try to put the pieces together correctly. These are six of my favorite pieces of what I hope will be a GPP winning puzzle.
1- Justin Fields, $6500 on DrafKings
Why bury the lead? This is normally where you’d take profit and jump off the train, refusing to chase points. A young player who is coming off a career day, getting a big price bump, and ownership increase? This would usually be a spot to fade, but not on this slate, and not against Detroit. You could argue that DraftKings didn’t raise Field’s price enough. Mahomes ($7900) is 1400 more than Fields on DraftKings. The Chiefs QB is only 200 more (8500 > 8300) than Fields on FanDuel.
This is a small, 10 game slate with not a lot of great QB options. I am going to keep my player pool tight at the position. I’ll pay up for some Mahomes or down for cheap Lawrence ($5400) builds in the same game. The Miami offense has been on fire, but Tua ($6700) doesn’t run enough to do it alone. With Tyreek at $9100 and Waddle at $7600 the stacks are expensive and tough to build around without a ton of great value. I’ll take Fields at a $200 discount over Tua, in much softer matchup. I’d much rather pick on the Lions than a tough Cleveland pass rush, rested off a bye.
2- Amon-Ra St. Brown, $6900 on both DraftKings and Fanduel
I am running back my Fields play with the Sun God. Part of the reason why Fields has been putting up such gaudy number is that Chicago willingly gutted its defense, trading away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. I know St. Brown hasn’t done much since his 42 point week 2 outburst, but there is reason to believe that he is ready to turn his season around. St. Brown is coming off consecutive weeks with 9 and 10 targets. Hockenson is gone, Josh Reynolds is likely out, and DJ Chark is on the IR. There is no question that who will be Jared Goff’s first look,
Hill and Waddle roasted this Chicago secondary for a combined 228 yards last week. While St. Brown lacks the game breaking speed of those two Dolphins, we’ve seen him post ceiling games when he can dominate the target share. If you want to add a little narrative street cherry on top of the play, Amon-Ra will be looking to show out with his older brother Equanimeous on the opposite sideline.
3- Saquon Barkley, $8600 on DraftKings
It doesn’t look like there is going be enough value on this slate to justify paying up for multiple stars. If I am going to plant my flag on one pay up this week, it is going to be Saquon. The bye week should have allowed the minor shoulder injury, which somewhat limited his snaps in Seattle to heal up. A rested Barkley gets a perfect matchup against the Texans, who have surrendered more fantasy points to running backs than any team in the league. If I am going to pay for the highest priced running back on a slate, I want a home favorite, with a 3 down role, against a butter soft defense. Saquon Barkley checks all of those boxes.
4- Dameon Pierce, $6300 on DraftKings
I’ll take my second running back play from the same game. This seems like a bit of a weird misprice by DK. The Giants are a middle of the pack run defense who lost their defensive play caller Xavier McKinney to a fluke ATV accident over the bye. McKinney has been arguably the Giants best defensive player this season. His presence will be missed. Pierce is coming off an impressive 27 carry, 139 yard effort against the undefeated Eagles.
Our Domination Station optimizer has Pierce as the highest fantasy points per dollar (3.06) play of any running back on the slate. Pierce should be fairly chalky, but running back chalk has been smashing of late. This feels like good chalk that I am willing to eat. That said, if you are looking for a low owned pivot, I like Tony Pollard ($6500) at a similar price.
5- Donovan Peoples-Jones, $4300 on DraftKings
The People’s Wide Receiver, as the Geek has been known to call him, had solidified his status as Cleveland’s number two pass game option. DPJ has been pretty consistent for a cheaply priced, down the field deep threat. He’s tallied at least 71 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Even in the one game he didn’t hit that benchmark, he still managed a respectable 4 grabs for 50 yards. The only thing hampering DPJ is that he’s yet to find the end zone this season.
This game in Miami has the second highest total (49) on the slate. If DPJ manages to score an overdue touchdown this week, he will smash at this depressed price.
6- Mack Hollins $4200 or Foster Moreau $3200 DraftKings
Las Vegas isn’t a place I typically look to save money, whether we are talking about real life, or daily fantasy football. This week might be an exception. The Raiders are 4.5 point home favorites against a Colts team is reaching comical levels of disfunction. Owner Jim Irsay has gone on full tilt, firing Head Coach Frank Reich only to surprise ESPN broadcaster Jeff Saturday by offering him the job. The former All-Pro Center accepted despite having no prior coaching experience aside from leading a high school team to a 3-7 record. On top of that, they’ve just moved their best defensive player, Shaq Leonard to the IR.
Targets are up grabs in the desert with Hunter Renfrow and Daren Waller also being placed on IR. The offense will continue to run through Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, but Hollins and Moreau are the most likely to see their usage increase. Foster Moreau has played 97.67% of the snap in the last 3 weeks with Waller out. Hollins has played 92.38% of snaps on the entire season and was running in 2 WR sets even when Renfrow was healthy.
This is a slate, that at least as of Friday afternoon, does not seem ripe with value. These two cheap Raiders, with secure playing time, look like two of the safest options for saving salary.
Things can change quickly on this slate with quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, and Kyler Murray all legitimately questionable. Sign up now for DFS Army VIP access. We will take you right up to lock with exclusive content like The Geek Player’s Club stream on Saturday, and the constantly updated Domination Station and Cheat Sheets. See you on the leaderboards and back here next week!