Welcome to the week 11 main slate. We had a good showing last week, highlighting Fields, Amon-Ra, and Saquon. We lead this column for two weeks in a row with Justin Fields and all he did was score a combined 89.1 DraftKings points for you. So the question is, do we go back to the well for a third week or take the profits and run? I love the matchup against Atlanta, but there are no more discounts on his price. The Chicago QB is now $7600 on DraftKings and $8700 on Fanduel.
For me it is a bit of a split the baby answer. I am still going to play Fields in game stacks, but now that he’s in the same price range as Josh Allen, Hurts, and Lamar, I’m not going to 3x the field (no pun intended), like I’ve done the past two weeks. Now that we’ve addressed fantasy football’s latest superstar, lets move on to the rest of the slate.
Nov 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery (32) runs the ball against Detroit Lions during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
1- David Montgomery, $6100 on DraftKings and $62oo on Fanduel
These prices were made before it was announced the Khalil Herbert would be placed on IR. The Chicago coaching staff cannot continue to use a “hot hand” approach if Montgomery is the only available hand. Rookie Trestan Ebner will get some work, but he only has 18 total carries on the season. I don’t expect him to cut into Monte’s snap percentage nearly as much as Herbert did.
I love Justin Fields, but I am going to go out on a limb and say the 162.5 yards a game that he has rushed for over the last two weeks is not sustainable. I like Montgomery to bounce back this week in a featured roll against a soft Atlanta D. I am going to play a lot of the Bears’ RB in my non Fields lineups.
2- Kyle Pitts $4400 on DraftKings and $5500 on Fanduel
Full disclosure, I am down bad on Kyle Pitts. I have way too much exposure in Best Ball. I took him over Ja’Marr Chase in the rookie draft of my only dynasty league (it’s TE premium, but still). The dude who was thought to be the best tight end prospect ever is now modestly priced with the turds. He deserves to be, based fantasy performance, but there are underlying numbers that suggest a breakout is possible.
Ian Hartitz points out that he has the 3rd most unrealized air yards (422) on the season, behind only Chris Olave and Diontae Johnson. Scott Barrett had an interesting tweet showing that Pitt’s 32% target share since week 7 is tied with Davante Adams, DJ Moore, and Terry McLaurin for 3rd best in the league. They only trail Stef Digg (34%) and D’Andre Hopkins (33%). The big difference is that all five of the other players have a catchable target rate of at least 70%. Pitts’ sees catchable balls at only a 52% clip.
Basically, Marcus Mariota is targeting Pitts at the rate of an elite wide receiver, he just needs to be more accurate with those throws. I am hoping he can straighten out has act at home, indoors, against a bad Chicago D, in a game with 49.5 point total.
3- Daniel Jones, $5700 on DraftKings
I’m going to give you few Daniel Jones facts that might surprise you. According to NFL on CBS, only two qualified quarterbacks have thrown interceptions on less than 1% of their passes this season, the GOAT Tom Brady and the once turnover prone Jones. Saquon Barkley hilariously refers to his QB as “Vanilla Vick.” Jones is coming off an efficient game against Houston in which his 153.3 QB rating was a career best and the highest posted by any NFL quarterback this season. Most importantly, Jones has the second highest points per dollar projection (3.33) according to our Domination Station optimizer. He ranks barely behind the similarly cheap Mariota and just a head of an expensive Josh Allen.
Now Jones gets the privilege of playing a home game against the Lions, who are dead last in fantasy points surrendered to the QB position. All that said, this play isn’t really about Jones, though. I want to play lineups that feature both Justin Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb and that is really hard to do while paying up at quarterback. Sure, you could probably find the extra $400 dollars to get up from Jones to Cousins. One, that is going to be a pretty common stack, and two, Cousins doesn’t really have a ceiling. Even last week when Jefferson went nuclear, Cousins only scored 20.5 DK points.
It’s not crazy to imagine a scenario where Jefferson blows up, but Jones has a big day running the ball against Detroit and outscores Cousins. They will be much less commonly owned in the same lineup.
4- Donovan Peoples-Jones, $4600 on DraftKings
We told you to play DPJ in the column last week and all he did was 3.5x his salary despite not scoring a touchdown and finishing with 99 yards (one away from the bonus). When I first looked at salaries this week I was surprised to see that he only got a $300 price increase, but figured it didn’t matter. You can’t play a downfield receiver in what projects to be 4 feet of snow. Well, the game is now in a dome, in Detroit, Michigan, near where DPJ played his college ball.
I am going to continue to ride the hot hand here with Peoples-Jones who is averaging over 74 yards in his last 6 games. DPJ will try for his first TD of the season against a banged up Buffalo secondary and the game with the highest total on the slate (50).
5- Jonathon Taylor, $7800 on DraftKings
Sometimes a team’s actions can tell you a lot more than their words. The Philadelphia Eagles, told you this week with their actions that they are bad against the run. They signed veteran run stuffers Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh off the street. Philly has been soft in the middle since rookie stud Jordan Davis was placed on IR. Last week they gave up a combined 130 rushing yards to Brian Robinson Jr and Antonio Gibson. The week before Dameon Pierce ran for an impressive 139 on 27 carries.
Jonathon Taylor returned to the lineup last week and surprisingly looked like the man who was a fantasy league winner in 2021. If I told you 12 months ago that you could play a healthy JT, at home, in a plus matchup, with no Nyheim Hines, for less than 8k, you’d have hit the lock button.
6- Terry McLaurin, $5900 on DraftKings
Scary Terry gets the old played in a night game last week misprice. McLaurin is averaging a 33% target share and 18.1 DK in his last 4 games since Tyler Heinicke took over. This week he gets to play indoors against a Texans defense that will be without Derek Stingley Jr, who is by far their best cover corner. Houston is god awful against the run, so people will try to play the guessing back between Brian Robinson Jr and Antonio Gibson. I don’t hate this approach, but I’d rather just roster a red hot, underpriced McLaurin.
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