The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!
Nov 20, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) celebrates his touchdown during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Snowflakes were everywhere, and I’m not just talking about the Snowfall in Buffalo that resulted in the Buffalo and Cleveland game being moved into the Dome of Detroit. However, in hindsight, maybe it was a foreshadowing of the Main Slate that was to come.
This was by far the lowest score we had seen in all of 2022 as many of the chalky players had snowflakes next to their names, and the late swap to contrarian plays like Tony Pollard were in play for those who were looking to leverage the field and rise up the leaderboards.
197 points was the top score of the best victory lane on the DFS Main Slate. Would a Fields lineup get there three weeks in a row? Let’s take a peek!
| Week 11 Milly Maker Lineup | Points |
| Jacoby Brissett | 29.86 |
| Tony Pollard | 39.9 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 12.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 26.8 |
| Amari Cooper | 34.3 |
| Michael PittmanJr. | 13.5 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 17.7 |
| Was DEF | 19 |
| total | 197.46 |
Stacking
Primary Stack: Jacoby Brissett 29.86 + Amari Cooper 34.3 + Devin Singletary 17.7 points.
Total Stacking Points: 81.86
Total Stacking Ownership: 15.54%
We’ve talked about it time and time again but when the scores are low, the skinny stacks are in play. In fact, if you could properly predict a low scoring slate, you could leverage the field with skinny stacks and contrarian plays. This lineup had a plentiful amount of both – despite its lack of plentiful points. There’s certainly a correlation between high scores and more stacking, and lower scores and less stacking. Alas, stacking is the one constant in GPP wins and a skinny, contrarian stack of Jacoby, Cooper, and Singletary as the bring back got it done.
This 3-player stack was perfect from the perspective of direct leverage, fantasy points per dollar, and overall ceiling. The 27.2 points per player is exactly the average you’re looking for across 9 positions to hit a 250-point target score. The ownership from 3 players was extremely low, and also direct leverage off of Allen and Diggs lineups that combined for 38% total ownership.
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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 11 Milly Maker Lineup | Ownership |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0.60% |
| Tony Pollard | 5.64% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13.41% |
| Tee Higgins | 14.08% |
| Amari Cooper | 3.67% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 4.57% |
| Tyler Conklin | 5.36% |
| Devin Singletary | 11.27% |
| Was DEF | 6.62% |
| Total | 65.22% |
Last week I suggested that – despite the recent run of the chalk smashing – we would return to the contrarian lineups dominating the leaderboards once again. The 158% average total ownership of Milly Maker winners over the last month of the NFL DFS Season was sure to fall at some point and regress to the mean; We know this because we’ve had 2 consecutive seasons where it was 96% and 108%, so even if we saw a rise, the near 160% we had witnessed over the last month wasn’t sustainable.
Alas, despite really high weeks recently, the seasonal to date average total ownership is 117%. We’ll see where this goes but the average will certainly be tied to the scores that we see on the slate.
Top Leverage Plays
Jacoby Brissett at .60%
You certainly could make an argument that Brissett was the top leverage play on the slate at under 1% ownership and over 5.5x his salary. He was direct leverage off of Chalky Josh Allen.
Amari Cooper at 3.67%
Cooper was one half of the top leverage stack on the slate at 3.67% ownership and only 2 points behind Adams for the best Wide Receiver score on the slate. Despite poor home and away splits, he didn’t have any problems this week scoring lots of points. Detroit must have felt like home for Cooper this week as he was direct leverage off of Diggs in the Buffalo and Cleveland game.
Washington Defense at 6.62%
We talk about it a lot: play low owned defenses in great matchups and be willing to pay up in GPP’s for them. Top defensive score on the slate and great leverage off of the chalk Steelers DST who only scored 2 points at 21% ownership.
Tony Pollard at 5.64%
Pollard was the top scoring player on the slate, and he was 5% owned. Hard to tell if this was a late swap or not as I know myself and other DFS Army players had late swapped to Pollard, but nonetheless, playing Pollard with Zeke in the lineup was a sharp play because it kept Pollard’s ownership low and he smashed anyways.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 11 Milly Maker Lineup | Pricing | FPTS Per Dollar |
| Jacoby Brissett | $5,400 | 5.52X |
| Tony Pollard | $6,500 | 6.13X |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,200 | 2.08X |
| Tee Higgins | $7,100 | 3.77X |
| Amari Cooper | $6,400 | 5.35X |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,100 | 2.21X |
| Tyler Conklin | $3,400 | 1.02X |
| Devin Singletary | $5,800 | 3.05X |
| Was DEF | $3,100 | 6.12X |
| Total | $50,000 | 3.94X |
From a value standpoint, what really made this lineup was the Jacoby/Cooper/Singletary stack that scored 81 points and only averaged $5866 salary. On a slate with chalky, expensive stacks like Diggs + Allen, $7600 Fields that the field was all over, and 21% owned + $8900 Barkley, this lineup hit it out of the park from a value standpoint by avoiding those pricey land mines. By paying down at Quarterback with Jacoby as opposed to the pricey options of Hurts, Allen, and Fields, this lineup had a stable of players in the $5800-$7100 range which is a sweet spot that we see time and time again in winning Milly Maker constructions.
Ceiling
197 points is the lowest winning score that we’ve seen in more than 2 years of the Milly Maker. In fact, in 2021 the lowest score we saw was 205 points and 2021 was a year of skinny stacks dominating with the low scores. After we started to shift to thicker stacks and higher scores this season with much of the chalk smashing, the past two weeks have averaged 217 points which is really low compared to the 250-point target you generally shoot for to win a large field GPP like the Milly Maker.
Despite lower scores over the past two weeks, we have a 245-point average on the season with 7 weeks to go. We have 6 weeks with a QB + 2 and 5 weeks when a QB was used in a skinny stack or ran naked like Fields was in week 10. Less than half the amount of time, you’ve needed a QB + 2 to win the Milly Maker despite the early run of the season when it appeared that might dominate again as it did in 2020.
Will we see lower scores and skinny stacks more often the rest of the season or will we have a return to thicker stacks and thus higher scores? Stay tuned!
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