10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Jared Goff – 2.5% – 14.8 FD Pts

Jacoby Brissett– 3% –  16.48 FD pts

Kirk Cousins – 3% – 17.48 FD pts

David Montgomery– 7% – 4.9 FD pts  

Jeff Wilson Jr. – 7% – 21.3 FD pts 3 pts. over his ceiling projection

Isaiah McKenzie – 2%  – 7.5 FD pts 

Jerry Jeudy – 13% – 0 FD pts (injured first play of game)

Donavon Peoples-Jones – 15% – 12.4 FD pts 

Dalton Schultz– 3% – 14.4 FD pts 2 pts. over his ceiling projection

Las Vegas Raiders – 1% – 3 FD pts

As has tended to be the norm in this article we had a couple smashes (Dalton Schultz, Jeff Wilson Jr., Kirk Cousins) a couple of duds (David Montgomery, Las Vegas Raiders), and was crushed by an injury again, thanks Jerry Jeudy.

There was some chalk smashing last week with RB, but was ecstatic that we were able to identify Jeff Wilson Jr. as a great play here. Was a bit concerned when they passed to the FB again at the goal line for a TD, but Wilson crushed after that. In a great spot David Montgomery did nothing but given the situation again, I think I would play it the same way and hope that Fields struggled to get leverage.

Everyone and their mother was on my boy Donavon Peoples-Jones last week as the People’s receiver got a bunch of steam on Friday/Saturday and ended up over 15% owned on FD. He performed well once again, but his QB Jacoby Brissett was the definition of average, hitting almost exactly our projection for him.

Going forward, Dalton Schultz needs to be an every week play, becoming my new Dallas Goedert (who just got injured and is out for multiple weeks now). Just so heavily involved in this offense with Dak at the helm. I’ll play him regardless of ownership every time he suits up.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Lamar Jackson QB Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 10%

Salary: DK $8400/FD $8400

Here’s the deal, Josh Allen in a dome is THE play this week. That being said, the ownership is going to be so outrageous that I think we can find a few guys who while not having the same safe floor of a high score, can put up a similar ceiling and in doing so get you a ton of leverage on the field because of how different your build is and what the salary savings allow you to do.

For me this week that starts with Lamar Jackson, who out of anyone on the slate probably has the closest to Allen’s ceiling. Our projections on the two are very similar and with the cost savings you get on FD especially you can upgrade your lineups elsewhere.

Mark Andrews has practiced in a limited fashion all week and should get the start here. I don’t know that you really NEED to play Lamar with anyone here though. He’s going to spread it around, especially with the emergence of Isaiah Likely as a secondary TE option. That being said I am interested in a super cheap Demarcus Robinson on DK. No runbacks from the Panthers is necessary though.

Dak Prescott QB Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 9%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $6600/FD $7500

The Vikings (my Vikings…) are 8-1 but are a bit of a paper tiger. They play really close games and really don’t stop anyone, which is great for the fantasy output in this game. I think this matchup blows up and I want a ton of pieces from it.

Dak has been really good since his return from injury, putting up 20+ FD points in each of the last two weeks. The Vikings bleed points to opposing passers so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him smash again here, even though they are on the road.

Chalk Ceedee Lamb is obviously the prime stacking candidate, but don’t sleep on Dalton Schultz either. He’s in a great spot against the Vikings here and has smashing the last two weeks. Michael Gallup is your milly maker stack piece though. While he’ll see some Patrick Peterson, Akayleb Evans is going to be out likely with a concussion so will get a backup DB to go against on a team whose DB’s aren’t great to begin with. Won’t get near the volume as Lamb but could bust a few big ones. (So could Noah Brown).

Run it back with Justin Jefferson and move on.

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $6000/FD $7600

Another week, another article where I write up 3 QB’s, because my boy Kirk Cousins is slaying it.

He’s cheaper than Dak on DK but more expensive on Fanduel which is weird, but should keep his ownership down. I mentioned above how great of a game environment this is and I want to be all over it from both sides of the ball.

The Vikings have done weird things near the end zone the last few weeks but the reality is that a Cousins/Justin Jefferson stack is the key to any sort of GPP take down that involves the Vikings. If Jefferson isn’t eating, either is Kirk, and Kirk isn’t getting there without him. You could throw in a TJ Hockenson or KJ Osborn/Adam Thielen if you wanted to but I don’t think it’s really necessary.

Run it back with any of the elite options on the Cowboys offense, but in particular Ceedee Lamb. 

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Melvin Gordon III RB Denver Broncos

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $5700/FD $5900

MG3 has a nice matchup here against the Raiders who are one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The addition of Chase Edmonds to this roster really doesn’t concern me as we saw last week Gordon got the bulk of the passing game work.

He is always a concern to fumble and he probably needs a TD to pay off value here but that’s very much in play in this game. Josh Jacobs on the other side of this game is weirdly projecting as chalk and I think I like Gordon straight up, let alone with a big price and ownership discount.

Two TD’s gets him in the nuts here and that is definitely in play, especially with Jerry Jeudy projecting as out. People might end up smashing Courtland Sutton this week just based on the volume he got, but Gordon has a better chance of scoring a tuddy and with both of these teams playing super slow I don’t think Sutton has quite the same upside.

D’onta Foreman RB Carolina Panthers

Ownership: DK 7.5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5900/FD $7100

Tricky spot for Foreman here as I really think that Chuba Hubbard is the better back but Foreman continues to dominate the snap counts and he’s been much more productive.

The Ravens are always a ‘scary’ matchup but with Baker Mayfield I think that the Panthers do everything they can to run the ball and control the clock and the front 7 isn’t near as good as they have been in the past though, the addition of Roquan Smith certainly helps.

Foreman got 31 carries last week which is insane, and while I don’t think he will get ‘quite’ that many I wouldn’t be surprised to see him near 25.

Solid spot for him here and I’ll go overweight.

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Cordarrelle Patterson RB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 8%

Salary: DK $6200/FD $6700

I personally am not worried about this backfield being a committee because Cpat is a beast and the Falcons know it. They will continue to give him the ball in space, and down by the goal line which gives him a pretty big ceiling for a guy that splits snaps.

Gets an elite matchup against the swiss cheese Bears front 7 who traded away everyone that can make a tackle.

Now, I will admit he got absolutely shut down last week by the Panthers, but again, this Bears defense is so bad (and so is the Falcons) that this is a great spot for him to smash.

Justin Fields will be popular again this week and I love running it back with Patterson. I also love a good David Montgomery/Patterson secondary stack as leverage on the field in large GPP’s.

Nico Collins WR Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $4100/FD $5900

Had a team high 10 targets last week that he brought 5 in for 49 yards and a TD. That sort of stat line would easily smash value at this price point and he gets an even better matchup this week against the Commanders and their pretty poor secondary.

This game has potential shoot out written all over it. The Commanders are better than people give them credit for and while the Texans have looked pretty poor at times they’ve shown signs of competency on offense and the volume that Collins got last week gives him a pretty high ceiling.

On FD, I might prefer his teammate Brandin Cooks just a touch but on DK he’s an absolute smash play as a cheap WR that allows you to pay up elsewhere.

Tyler Body WR Cincinnati Bengals 

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 8%

Salary: DK $6500/FD $6800

Pittsburgh is one the worst teams at covering WR’s in the NFL and Joe Shiesty and the Bengals are going to absolutely crush this week. Rivalry game or not, I really think the Bengals make a statement here.

Everyone is lining up to play Tee Higgins and at first I was too, until I saw his updated ownership projection. Boyd has weirdly shown a higher ceiling this year though, even with Chase out.

Love him as a one off and think the ownership may end up being even lower than our current projections due to the need to pay down to get up to guys like Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. 

Dalton Schultz TE Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 9%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $4300/FD $5900

Schultz with Dak at the helm is a lock and load play for me every single week. Continues to be under priced and under owned given his usage. If he catches a TD he will be in the nuts on both sites unless someone goes ballistic.

(that line above is what I wrote for him last week in this column, and it absolutely 100% applies again, just way too cheap given his usage)

The Vikings bleed points to the TE and even if you aren’t playing him with Prescott he’s my favorite TE on the slate. Get him in your lineups and don’t look back.

Denver Broncos DST (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Ownership: DK 1.5%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $3900

Broncos have one of the highest ceiling projections on DFS Army and lowest ownership projection combo on the slate. This defense has gotten continually better as the year has gone on and are not only keeping scores low, but creating turnovers which is what you need to do to score well.

Derek Carr is typically very good at limiting turnovers which does concern me a touch but he will definitely take sacks here and I think the Broncos can get to him early and often.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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