Welcome to the week 8 main slate. I apologize for not putting an article up last week. Some family stuff came up and I do some unexpected traveling. I thought it better to take a bye week rather than quickly cobble together some picks for a slate that I was barely playing, without the proper research.
For the first time in a few weeks we don’t have obvious, smash play RB values to soak up all the ownership (until Zeke is confirmed out and we get Tony Pollard chalk week). I think this makes for a wide open and fun slate.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger (4) throws the ball during the game against the Detroit Lions on Saturday, August 20, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions are tied at the half, 13-13.
Nfl Detroit Lions At Indianapolis Colts
1- Sam Ehlinger, $4000 on DraftKings
Matt Ryan certainly looked pretty washed, but I don’t think anyone really anticipated him getting benched this week. The DraftKings pricing team certainly didn’t. Ehlinger is the stone minimum for a QB.
This really the perfect scenario for a min-priced backup quarterback play. This is a main slate without Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert. Their collective absence greatly reduces the chances of a high priced QB putting up a slate breaking score at the position. The one quarterback you are most concerned with fading, Jalen Hurts, is more than double the price at $8300.
The matchup is soft against Washington, and most importantly, Ehlinger provides a rushing floor. The former Texas Longhorn ran for an incredible 33 touchdowns in college. I probably won’t have a ton of Ehlinger in tournaments. I don’t think he realistically has a large field, GPP winning ceiling. That said, with his rushing ability, at only $4000, I think this is the easiest QB decision we’ve had in cash all season.
2- Derrick Henry, $8400 on DraftKings
If you are going to save a bunch of money on QB, there might be no better pay up this week than the Big Dog. The Twitter account @NFLFantasy makes a pretty concise case for the play, “Derrick Henry has averaged 38.2!!! fantasy PPG in his last 3 games against the Texans. Houston has given up 36.5 to Jacobs, 34.9 to Ekeler, 30.9 to Herbert, and 27.5 to Taylor this season.”
With Tannehill nursing a bad ankle, the Titans have even more incentive to feed Henry in this great matchup.
3- Raheem Mostert, $5900 on DraftKings and $6800 on Fanduel
Fading Mostert has been one of my biggest regrets of best ball season. Young, previously healthy studs like Breece Hall and Javonte Williams are done for the season, while the injury prone 30-year-old Mostert chugs on. Perhaps, we are less adapt at predicting injuries than we might believe.
This is a spot where I hope to get some money back on the Dolphin RB. Mostert has completely left Chase Edmonds in the dust. He has out carried him 61 to 15 over the last four weeks. Mostert has scored more the 20 fantasy points in two of his last three outings. Now he face the Lions, who might have the worst run defense in the league.
This is the highest total game on the slate. We currently have Tua as the most owned QB and Tyreek as the highest rostered receiver. I will definitely play some stacks of the Miami passing game, but when don’t, I want Mostert as leverage.
4- DeAndre Hopkins, $7400 on DraftKings
Nuk didn’t need much time to shake off the rust of his 6 game PED suspension. He lead all WRs in week 7 with a 48.3% target share. To put that in perspective, Cooper Kupp ($9600) was second with 32.6% and Tyreek Hill ($8500) was third at 32.4%. You may notice that you are getting a pretty big price discount on Hopkins relative to those two other usage monsters.
DeAndre scored 23.3 DK points last week without even finding the end zone. I think Kyler continues to lean on his returning number one.
5- Kirk Cousin, $6100 on DraftKings
Minnesota has the second highest implied team total (26.25) on the slate. I love this pace up spot for Cousins, in the dome, against a bad Arizona defense. The game stacks build themselves with Justin Jefferson and usable TE punt in Irv Smith. The above mentioned Hopkins is an easy run back. Our Domination Station optimizer has Cousin as a top five points per dollar (3.4) play.
The Viking stacks will be significantly less popular than the Dolphins despite having a team total that’s only 1.25 points less.
6- George Kittle, $5700 on DraftKings
With no Kelce or Andrews, no one is going to want to pay up for tight end on this slate. It wasn’t too long ago that George Kittle was regarded in this class. Quietly the 49er TE has started to get his mojo back, scoring 21.8 and 16.3 DraftKings points his last two games. With Deebo Samuels out this week, he will have even less competition for targets.
We have Kittle at less than 5% owned. On a slate where people are going to be paying down for Noah Fant and Foster Moreau, Kittle has a ceiling that can give you a huge advantage if it hits.
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