Welcome to the week 6 main slate. It sure seems like another “easy game” week. Play the obviously underpriced running backs (Rhamondre, Henderson, Kenny Walker, and Eno Benjamin) in stacks with the Buffalo/KC or Arizona/Seattle and print money. The way the chalk’s been hitting recently that might not be a terrible idea. I am certainly going to be targeting those games and using the chalk RBs, but I am going to highlight six plays to help you get a bit different while doing so.
Oct 4, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) runs the ball against the Houston Texans during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
1- Dalvin Cook $7300 on DraftKings and $8300 on Fanduel
If there weren’t so many great paydown options at running back, Cook could have easily wound up as chalk. Instead, we have him projected at about 6% ownership on DK and just 4% on FD. Dalvin is coming off a game against the Bears where he looked spry, racking up 121 total yards while finding the end zone twice. Minnesota is a 3 point road favorite against a Miami team starting a third string, rookie quarterback. Cook will have an opportunity to feast against a Dolphins run D that just allowed 48 combined DraftKings points to Breece Hall and Michael Carter.
We have all four of the previously mentioned RB values over 30% owned on Fanduel and over 20% on DraftKings. If a low owned Cook smashes while one or two of them bust, you could gain a huge advantage in GPPs.
2- Devin Singletary $5900 on DraftKings and $5700 on Fanduel
Josh Allen is going to be the highest played QB on both sites. I am going to use him in cash and have plenty of exposure in GPPs, but for my non Allen lineups, I am trying to tell myself a story of how he doesn’t get there. The most easy answer is that they rush a couple in and Allen doesn’t score the touchdowns necessary to justify his cost. At his price, you need at least 4 TDs. Buffalo has a 28 point team total. If Singletary can rush for 2, and Allen only accounts for 2, that is a huge win for builds that are fading the Buffalo QB.
Box score readers might be tricked into believing that James Cook is starting to significantly eat into Singletary’s workshare (As someone who is massively overweight the younger Cook brother in best ball, I wish this was the case). The truth is, however, that most of Cook’s work has come in garbage time, while Buffalo has had big leads.
I don’t expect the Bills to run up a huge lead on the Chiefs in Kansas City. In a tight game they will likely stick with the veteran Singletary. He is an interesting leverage play off both Allen and the chalk RBs in his direct price range.
3- Patrick Mahomes $8000 on DraftKings and $8600 on Fanduel
You don’t have to go for to find a QB pivot off Allen in GPPs. There is a future Hall of Fame quarterback lining up across the field from him in the same game. I was a bit surprised to find out how much higher owned Allen is likely to be. We currently have Allen carrying more that double the ownership of Mahomes on Fanduel and almost tripling him on DraftKings.
I love getting some tournament expose to Mahomes as a home dog, at a small savings in price and a significant ownership discount.
4- Skyy Moore, $3500 on DraftKings
This is strictly a large field GPP play. If you are playing Mahomes, you are almost certainly including Kelce in that build as well. In this post Tyreek Hill era, it is hard to imagine Mahomes getting to a GPP winning score without a big day from Kelce. So, now that you are paying up a QB and TE, you are going to need to save some salary, even if you play the RB value.
The rookie out of Western Michigan played a career high 25 snaps last week against the Raiders, catching 2 balls on the final drive that sealed the game. This is far from dependable usage, but it is a good sign that Andy Reid was confident enough to have him out there in crunch time.
The Kansas City Star detailed how his snap percentage has increased in 4 consecutive weeks (4%, 13%, 28%, and 35%). In the giant lottery ticket contests, where you are trying beat out hundreds of thousands of entries, I’ll take a few stabs at a talented player, whose role is increasing, who is 1% owned, and in the highest total game.
5- DJ Moore, $5100 on DraftKings and $5700 on Fanduel
This is the DJ Moore spot where I am going to “buy the dip,” “price enforce,” or whatever other term might want to use for playing a talented underachiever at a discounted cost. Gone is Baker Mayfield, who is known for suppressing a wide receivers value. In his place is PJ Walker, hardly a gunslinger, but a scrappy backup should filter targets to his top receiving threats. Walker was quote in his press conference as saying, “I’m going to play the game and get the ball in my playmakers’ hands. That’s the only way I know.”
In his two previous games with Walker at the helm Moore saw 8 targets in one, and 11 in the other which resulted in 7 grabs for 125 yards. We are getting Moore low owned, cheap, and indoors against a beatable Ram secondary.
6- Alec Pierce, $4100 on DraftKings
For my final play were are going to stick with the theme of an underpriced receiver playing in a dome. The Colts rookie has posted at least 61 yards in 3 straight games. Last week, against a tough Denver defense, Pierce had an efficient 8 grabs on 9 targets for 81 yards. All were career highs. On a slate that is lacking predictable wide receiver value, Pierce stands out.
Matt Ryan should continue to look the way of his impressive rookie against an inconsistent Jacksonville defense.
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