The Simple Six- NFL Week 5 DFS Plays

We had a pretty good week 4 in this column.  We nailed the Rashod Penny and George Pickens plays.  I hope no one played Giant TE Daniel Bellinger because of me. The truth is I didn’t really wind up playing him either.  I fully intend to, but by the time I built my lineups on Sunday morning Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark got ruled out for Detroit.  TJ Hockenson became too good a play to pass up and he was the tight end in vast majority of my lineups.

When talking about the Jack 4 poker controversy that took over the internet this week, Rounders co-writer Brian Koppelman tweeted about having “strong opinions, loosely held.”  I followed this advise well when I moved basically all of my TE ownership on to Hockenson.  Conversly, I stubbornly kept most of my builds as Buffalo/Baltimore stacks, despite the clear weather issues.  As a result, I turned a small profit on the week, but didn’t have any big scores.

I will try to remember these lessons as I build for week 5.


Aug 12, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts as his team takes the field for a game against the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports


1- Jalen Hurts, $8,100 on DraftKings and $8,600 on Fanduel


DFS Army favorite Jalen Hurts has been great this year and he hasn’t even seen a game script play out in favor yet.  The Eagles were able to take the foot off the gas in 2nd half of their first 3 games.  Last week, terrible weather put a fantasy ceiling on the contest.  Joe Holka posted telling stat about Hurts.  He has the 3rd most fantasy points in the league so far, yet only 13.6 of them have come in 2nd halves.

Indoors, at Arizona, is the spot where Hurts will finally be able to fully ball out.  AJ Brown is the best, but also most expensive/popular stacking option.  I will have skinny stacks of Hurts with Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Goedert.


2- Zach Ertz, $4,900 on DraftKings and $5,900 on Fanduel


You could certainly use Hollywood Brown as a run back.  He has been an early season target hog.  I don’t think, however, that this is the week he puts up a monster score.  Darius Slay is one of, if not the best lockdown man cover corners in the league.  He even put the clamps on Justin Jefferson earlier this season.  Even if they motion Brown away from Slay, James Bradberry is no slouch on the other side.

Ertz has a respectable 19.2% target share.  With no Kelce or Andrews, the dad runner Ertz could see as many targets as any TE on the slate and we have him at less than 4% owned.  If you want a little extra cherry on top, there is the revenge narrative.


3- Breece Hall, $5,400 on DraftKings


The Jets are finally taking the training wheels off their highly touted rookie RB.  Jim Coventry tweeted a good stat showing that Hall has increase dramatically (27%>51%>66%) the last three weeks.  His touches have moved in the same direction (8>14>19).  Breece Hall has game breaking talent, not often found in a $5,400 RB and now he is seeing the usage to capitalize on it.


4- Drake London $5,900 on DraftKings and  $6,200 on Fanduel


These prices were made before it was announced that Kyle Pitts and his 23.7% target share would be missing the game.  The Tampa Bay Bucs are a passing funnel defense and with no Pitts or Patterson this week, London should see all the usage he can handle.


5- Chris Olave, $5,700 on DraftKings 


Why stop with one underpriced rookie WR when you can play two?  It seems like the league and the DraftKings pricing algorithm have yet to catch up to exactly how good this kid is.  Olave has an outstanding 28.9% target share and leads the league in air yards.  Now he get to play a terrible Seattle defense, at home in the dome.  Jameis Winston is out again, but Olave proved last week that he can produce with the Red Rocket Andy Dalton under center.


6- DST Dallas, $2,500 on DraftKings


I wrote up the Dallas D in this space last week and they scored 10 DK points, which was fine, but not GPP winning good.  Somehow they received a $1000 price decrease from $3,500 to $2,500.  The DraftKings pricing apparatus is forcing me to go back to the well.  DK’s computers think this is a home game for the Rams. It is in theory, but not in practice.  The crowd is expected to be so Cowboy fan heavy that the Ram’s offense is preparing to have to use a silent count.

This pricing also suggests that this is the Rams offense the won the Super Bowl.  It is not.  Without Andrew Witworth, their line is struggling.  Without Odell they have no downfield threat. The run game is nonexistent and Allen Robinson looks Russell Wilson levels of washed.

I look for Micah Parsons, Trey Diggs, and Demarcus Lawrence to reek havoc in Hollywood.


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