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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB Playoffs DFS 10/11:
Oct 8, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Members of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrate following their 2-0 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals in game two of the Wild Card series for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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Before we start… I NEED to give a massive shoutout to our members from week 1 for absolutely smashing week 1 of the NFL season!!! Shoutout to “RapidfirexD” for taking home A MILLION DOLLARS on Sunday’s main slate!
Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Philadelphia Phillies (+175) @ Atlanta Braves (-200)
Rundown:
We’ll kick this day of postseason baseball off with the Phillies heading into Atlanta to open up the NLDS against the Braves. Ranger Suarez will take the mound and is probably one of the two pitchers I don’t see myself getting much of. Suarez closed out the season with a six-earned run start across three innings against the Astros and gets a terrible matchup against the Braves in this one. The Braves will look like a top stack on the slate, in my opinion. The Braves will send Max Fried to the mound in a lefty/lefty battle. Fried has a 23.2% strikeout rate on the season and is averaging 17.1 DraftKings points per game in four starts against Philadelphia. He’s not my favorite option on the slate but he makes plenty of sense in the mid-range.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I don’t have a ton of interest in stacking against Fried.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Robbie Grossman, William Contreras
GPP Note: The Braves look good here from top to bottom.
Seattle Mariners (+190) @ Houston Astros (-230)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound in a really tough matchup with this Astros offense on the road in Houston. That being said, Gilbert finished the season with a hand full of good starts with at least 55 FanDuel points in three of his final six games. He has a 22.7% strikeout rate on the season but the ERA can be misleading due to the ballpark he pitches in as his xERA is a full .90 points higher. I would probably prefer Fried in this price range on DraftKings, but he’s kind of in no-man land on FanDuel where I’d rather spend up at pitching anyway. Houston will send the ace of the slate to the mound in Justin Verlander. I expect they finally take the kid gloves off of him here now that they finally arrived in the postseason. He’s been constantly held below 100 or so pitches to end the season and I suspect that will stop here. He has at least 46 FanDuel points in three of his last four to go along with a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA on the season.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: No real interest for me to stack against Verlander on this slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: I have no problem going right back to the Astros against Gilbert, especially the lefties.
Cleveland Guardians (+180) @ New York Yankees (-210)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Cal Quantrill will get the start for the Guardians as they head into Yankees Stadium to open up the ALDS against the Yankees. This obviously isn’t a great matchup against a high-flying Yankees offense and Quantrill doesn’t exactly have the strikeout stuff to get away with some mistakes with just a 16.6% K rate on the season. I don’t see myself getting much exposure to Quantrill on either DraftKings or FanDuel. Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees and will look like a strong option right there with Verlander on this slate. He has an elite 32.4% strikeout rate on the season but isn’t shy about the home run ball, so I don’t hate one-offs against him to get some leverage, even in your own Cole lineups due to the size of the slate.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs against Cole, but he has the ability to get blown up every now and then.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Rudge, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: The Yankees look like a strong stack here as well.
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San Diego Padres (+185) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-225)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with Mike Clevinger getting the ball as the Padres head into Los Angeles in this NLDS series. Clevinger did not close the season out very strong with negative DraftKings performances in two of his final four starts. He’s averaging just 3.2 DraftKings points in three games started against the Dodgers on the season as well. The price tag is obviously juicy, but for good reason as he has just an 18.8% strikeout rate which doesn’t leave much wiggle room for mistakes against the best offense in the league. The Dodgers will send Julio Urias to the mound will be a guy I have a bunch of interest in here. Similar to Verlander, he wasn’t pushed all that much to end the season but was extremely consistent all year with a 2.16 ERA. He has a 24.1% strikeout rate on the season and averaged 19.8 DraftKings points per game in four starts against the Padres this season, I like him quite a bit as an SP2 option on DraftKings and even think you can get to him on FanDuel if you can’t get to Verlander or Cole.
SDP 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: I don’t really want to stack against Urias.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers are right there with the Braves as the top stack on the slate.
