Oct 2, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) rushes towards Denver Broncos safety Kareem Jackson (22) during a game at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
We were almost Duped. When the early games finished, we had a winning Milly Maker lineup that had been duplicated 32 times. I won’t get into a rant on how it’s a negative EV decision to have 32 of the exact same lineups in a contest, but I just might when I do my weekly MME & Milly Maker Podcast later this week.
When Jacobs broke the slate in the Afternoon as he ran wild over the Broncos, Hoop2410 zoomed past Kingburg and so did scarecrow06. Kingburg’s 32 lineups split 3rd place and his earnings went from $1.5 Million to $355,000.
The worst part about it for Kingburg is Hoop2410 had the exact same lineup except he played Jacobs instead of Penny. Imagine if Kingburg found 31 different ways to differentiate his lineup from the original, instead of using 32 duplicates. He might have landed on the best leverage play of the day: Josh Jacobs.
He would’ve split the $1,000,000 down the middle and still had a bunch of high performing lineups that he would’ve made thousands on, but I digress.
| Lineup | Points |
| Geno Smith | 34.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 34.9 |
| Jamaal Williams | 26.9 |
| DK Metcalf | 24.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | 14.1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 21.1 |
| TJ Hockenson | 42.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | 37.5 |
| Eagles DST | 15 |
| Total | 252 |
Stacking
All the Correlation!
Geno 34.7+ Metcalf 24.9 + Lockett 14.1 + Williams 26.9 + Reynolds 21.1 + Hockenson 42.90
(QB + WR + WR + Opp. RB + Opp. WR + Opp. TE)
Total Stacking Points: 164.6
6 Player Average: 27.43
A stack of 6 players scoring this many points is a bit unfathomable given the circumstances; we had a team missing their two best players on Offense and also scoring has been down across the league. This projected game total was 48 points and the Seahawks got there on their own; add up the 45 that we got from the Lions and this total exceeded the projected game total by 45 points!
It only takes one game to pop off and break a slate and this was the game to target with heavy stacks as the game total almost hit 100 points. Furthermore, its uniqueness was evident as it was an NFL first for a game ending with a 48-45 score, per NFL_Scorigami on twitter.
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Geno Smith | 6.82% |
| Austin Ekeler | 15.18% |
| Jamaal Williams | 37.97% |
| DK Metcalf | 5.74% |
| Tyler Lockett | 15.43% |
| Josh Reynolds | 11.38% |
| TJ Hockenson | 19.84% |
| Josh Jacobs | 6.12% |
| Eagles DST | 3.23% |
| Total | 121.73% |
When reviewing the winning Milly Maker trends of 2020-21, I wrote here about a trend we saw when we could often predict a spike in total ownership as a result of value running backs entering into great situations that resulted in the field being all in on them – just like week 4 when everyone was playing Khalil Herbert and Jamaal Williams.
Jamaal Williams smashed and that’s how a 37% owned player ends up in the winning lineup and vastly raises the total ownership. Through 3 weeks we had a total ownership of about 97%; In week 4, this number climbed to 121% with Chalky Jamaal Williams.
TJ Hockenson became really chalky as well as the de facto number one pass catcher in Detroit with Amon-RA, Chark, and pass catching RB Swift out of the game.
The lesson here is to be willing to eat chalk and get different elsewhere as it’s going to be really difficult to beat lineups when underpriced players – relative to their value that week – smash their salary and the field is all over them.
On the contrary, if you’re fading that underpriced player and the field is all over them, just know your chances of winning those contests are slim to none if you check the leaderboards and see flames next to their names.
Top Leverage Plays
Geno Smith at 6.82%
Geno was leverage off of pricier Quarterbacks like Lamar, Hurts, and Allen who were all over 10% owned and scored less than Geno Smith who had 34 points.
Josh Jacobs at 6.12%
This one was a bit surprising as the Domination Station had Jacobs as one of the top Fantasy Points per Dollar Plays. I figured optimizers would be cramming Jacobs into lineups and thus he’d be over 10% owned but came in closer to 5% ownership than he did 10%. He was the top scoring RB on the slate and only $5500. He was far and away the best leverage play on the slate based on scoring and ownership. He was also the one player that hoop2410 needed to beat out the 32 duplicated lineups from Kingburg.
DK Metcalf at 5.74%
In a day when no Wide Receivers scored over 25 points, Metcalf provided the leverage on the field that was needed to climb up the leaderboard. Metcalf was leverage off of Williams, Adams, and Diggs.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Players | Pricing | FPTS Per $ |
| Geno Smith | $5,400 | 6.42X |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,700 | 4.53X |
| Jamaal Williams | $6,100 | 4.40X |
| DK Metcalf | $6,800 | 3.66X |
| Tyler Lockett | $5,900 | 2.38X |
| Josh Reynolds | $4,600 | 4.58X |
| TJ Hockenson | $4,100 | 10.46X |
| Josh Jacobs | $5,500 | 6.81X |
| Eagles DST | $3,800 | 3.94X |
| Total | $49,900 | 5.05X |
Paying down for Geno Smith at QB allowed to pay up for $7700 Ekeler, Williams, and Metcalf in the 6K range, and the pay up for the Eagles DST at $3800. In the 2022 season, we finally have a DST priced over 3K which is what we saw as the average pricing in 2020-21. Also, again we see no RB or WR priced above 8K. The best value was Hockenson who scored 42.90 points and over 10X’d his salary.
From a pricing standpoint, this lineup really stands out because over 3 players hit 6x, money was left on the table, and the entire lineup averaged 5X in regard to Fantasy Points Per Dollar.
That 250 Point Ceiling
To win a large field GPP contest like the Milly Maker, your lineup generally needs to be able to score 250 points. This ceiling will fluctuate but that is the target. In Week 1, DFS Army subscriber RapidFireXD won it with 251 points. In week 2, we saw 284 points win the Milly Maker. Week 3 was a return to a lot of the low scoring that we saw in 2021 when the average score was 233 points. Week 4 brought it back up to 252 points. So, through a month of the NFL Season, we now have an average number of 249 points which is exactly what we want to target as we build for ceiling; a 27-point average across 9 roster spots is needed to hit that target and this week’s 6-player stack averaged exactly 27 points from each player. Your odds of winning a large field GPP are much better with stacking, but if the majority of your lineups are built with 6 player stacks, you’re more likely to go broke than you are to win a big tournament.
That said, when the game pops off that you’ve stacked heavily, watch your lineup shoot up the leaderboards – how far it shoots is the question. Through 4 weeks we’ve seen two lineups with a skinny primary stack take down the Milly Maker and two lineups with 4 or more players in a thick primary stack win the Milly Maker. So, which is more likely to happen going forward? If we have game totals that end up exceeding projections by 40+ points, you can bet that we’ll see more winning stacks of 5+ players. If scoring remains down – as it has in most games – then you can bet we’ll see more skinny stacks in winning lineups.
The variance from week to week is what we’ll embrace as we look to take very different paths to hit that 250-point target depending on the state but for now that 250-point ceiling is still holding strong.
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