Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/19:
Apr 21, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) walks back onto the court against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the third quarter during game one of the three round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Det -3.5
We’ll kick the first real slate of the NBA season with the Magic who are traveling to Detroit to take on the Pistons. The Magic roster has stayed much the same, but they did add Paolo Banchero who was the first overall pick in the draft. He’ll start right away and averaged 14 ppg and 5.2 rpg in 24.2 minutes per game in the preseason. I’ll have no issue going right to him right away in this price range. At least DraftKings figured it out this season as opposed to last season where the rookies started the season in the $3k’s for the first few weeks of the season. Outside of Banchero, Cole Anthony led the team with a 25.2% usage rate last season and 1.05 fantasy points per minute. He also averaged 35.4 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Pistons and is a guy I’ll like a good amount here. The price tag on Wendell Carter Jr. is REALLY nice, especially on DraftKings where he’s $6.1k, we’re used to seeing him in the upper $7k range, and will look great here. Then guys like Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are fine secondary options to round out this team. From the Pistons, they do have a few key additions in rookies Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren as well as bringing in Bojan Bogdanovic from the Jazz. Duren was a monster on the boards in the preseason averaging 12.0 rebounds per game in three games. While Ivey struggled shooting the ball but will get minutes right away to begin the season… and we kind of know what we’re getting from Bogdanovic, he’s very shooting-dependent. Cade Cunningham is the most expensive player on the team, but for good reason, he had a 28% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute last season and will be a guy I look to go right back to in this one. Saddiq Bey was really good against the Magic last season averaging 40.6 FanDuel points per game in four games… but should lose some production/usage with the acquisition of these other guys. Isaiah Stewart is probably the starting center for the Pistons but on a big slate, I think we can do better.
5-star play:
4-star play:
Deeper Value:
GPP Sleeper:
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 228
Vegas Spread: Was -2.0
Starting with the new-look Wizards who will be getting Bradley Beal back who was injured for much of the second half of the season last year. They also brought in Will Barton and Monte Morris who they got in a trade with the Nuggets. Then Johnny Davis was picked up in the draft and REALLY struggled in the preseason averaging just 2.5 points per game on 19.3 minutes. I would imagine they take it pretty slow with him and try to get him more comfortable with the speed of the NBA, so the price on him is justified. Kristaps Porzingis led the team with a 32.1% usage rate and 1.49 fantasy points per minute last season but a lot of that came with Beal off of the court… so he should lose some usage at the very least. Beal had a 30.4% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute last season. Both of these guys will look like strong options against the Pacers who are in full tank mode this season. Kyle Kuzma had a huge second half of the season last year but did a lot of that damage as the team was banged up without Beal and Porzingis, I don’t really want to go to him here until we see his role in this new offense. Barton and Morris are more tournament options than anything as well. From the Pacers, they traded Malcolm Brogdon to the Celtics in the offseason and didn’t really get a whole lot in return that will immediately impact the offense, but did pick up Bennedict Mathurin in the draft. He looks like he’s going to be the real deal and is one of my favorite sleeper rookie of the year candidates. He averaged 19.8 points per game in the preseason and should see plenty of run right from the jump. Tyrese Haliburton’s production should see a boost as well this season with Brogdon out of the backcourt. He had a 21% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with Brogdon off of the court last season. Buddy Hield and Myles Turner will likely be traded at some point this season but will look like fine secondary options until they do.
5-star play: Bradley Beal, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Bennedict Mathurin
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Kuzma, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner
New Orleans Pelicans @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -3.0
Starting with the Pelicans, this team is going to be a lot of fun with Zion Williamson returning after missing a lot of last season. The rest of this team has stayed pretty much the same outside of rookie Dyson Daniels who I don’t anticipate to play a huge role right away. We don’t have any sample size of Zion being on the court with CJ McCollum, so this may be a wait-and-see game more than anything but I would guess he’s going to demand a good chunk of usage and produce right away. I don’t think he runs out and plays 30 minutes right away but something to keep an eye on at the very least. Speaking of McCollum, he had a really nice season last year with this team with a 29.4% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute, and will look like a solid secondary option. The same can be said for Brandon Ingram, but I just don’t know how much usage this team can really split among those three. We do get a nice price discount on Jonas Valanciuans as well to round out this team and the Nets really struggled with opposing big men last year. From the Nets, it sounds like we’re finally going to see the regular season Nets debut of Ben Simmons who was traded over in the James Harden deal last season. We know he can fill up the stat sheet in a hurry but isn’t a huge usage guy especially when he’s next to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. With both of these guys on the court last season, Irving had a 26.1% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute and Durant had a 31.5% usage rate and 1.38 fantasy points per minute. Both of these guys are nice plays at their respective price tag. The only other guy I would have interest in from this team would be Nicolas Claxton who should continue to start for Brooklyn and hopefully sees more minutes per game than he did last season.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas, Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton
Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -6.5
Starting with the Bulls, they stay relatively the same as last year roster-wise but did add Ayo Dosunmu to the starting lineup after having a great year last season. I don’t love the price tag on him, but we know the minutes will be there for him. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan had very similar per-minute production last season, below is how they operated:
- Zach LaVine – 29.2% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per game
- DeMar DeRozan – 32% usage rate; 1.20 fantasy points per game
- Nikola Vucevic – 24.9% usage rate; 1.21 fantasy points per game
They’ll all look like solid options in a tougher matchup against this Miami defense due to the price tags they’re carrying. From the Heat, they’re also coming into this season with a very similar roster as last year. Jimmy Butler finished the season on a bit of a tear last year and I always like a little revenge game narrative, especially at a nice price tag. Bam Adebayo was actually the best per-minute producer last year with 1.22 fantasy points per minute and will look very solid as well. Tyler Herro got a big contract extension about a couple of weeks ago and it wouldn’t shock me if he moved into the starting lineup at some point in this season and maybe even here. Regardless, he should see around 30 minutes, and is a solid option as well although the price tag is higher than I’d like relative to the slate.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ayo Dosunmu
New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 226
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.5
Starting with the Knicks, their big free agency flash was signing Jalen Brunson to a big deal to be their new point guard. I think he’s priced right where he should be for now until we see how he produces next to guys like RJ Barrett and Julius Randle, but probably not a guy I’ll be prioritizing right away. Speaking of Randle, he led this team with a 28.6% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute last season which is way down from where he was the year prior. That being said, he has a nice price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings. RJ Barrett may lose some usage with Brunson in there, but I don’t think it’ll be a ton considering Brunson isn’t exactly a bit usage monster. Then we can round this team out with tournament guys like Mitchell Robinson and Evan Fournier. From the Grizzlies, they’re bringing back a lot of their same team but will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks to start the season. Below is how this team operated with Jackson and Brooks off of the court last season:
- Ja Morant – 37.1% usage rate; 1.47 fantasy points per minute
- Desmond Bane – 28.1% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per minute
- Brandon Clarke – 18.1% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per minute
Santi Aldama is likely to start in his place, he was a 0.80 fantasy point-per-minute guy with Jackson out last year and will be a solid value option, but I’ll like Clarke more as an immediate backup to both Aldama and Adams in this one. Outside of that situation, I’ll like Morant quite a bit as he averaged 53.6 DraftKings points per game against the Knicks last season.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama
Deeper Value: Santi Aldama
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Fournier
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Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233
Vegas Spread: Atl -9.5
Starting with the Rockets, they’re bringing in two big rookies from the draft in Jabari Smith and Tari Eason who should both make an immediate impact with Christian Wood now off of the team. Smith played in just one preseason game but dropped 21 points and 8 rebounds in that game. I have no issue going right to him in this one. Eason was also very productive averaging 17.8 ppg and 9.0 rpg on 23.8 minutes per game and is a solid mid-range option. I would expect we see a big season from Alperen Sengun as he fills in for Wood and had a 22.8% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court last season. Kevin Porter Jr. just signed a massive contract to stick with the Rockets for the next few years paired with Jalen Green in this backcourt. These guys would be more of GPP options than anything, as I think it’s going to be hard to predict which one of the two will have a big night on a day-to-day basis again. From the Hawks, they made the big splash of the offseason by trading for Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young in the backcourt. I think to start, I’ll be underweight on these guys until we see the production from these two. Obviously, they’re both going to lose some usage, but do they become more efficient? I’ll consider them more tournament options than anything. Clint Capela will look solid here in a revenge game, he averaged 41.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Rockets last season. The same can be said for John Collins, but he was very volatile to end the season last year. Then we can round the Hawks out with De’Andre Hunter who is another guy that signed a massive extension, he’s a solid last-piece-in type option at this price range.
5-star play: Alperen Sengun
4-star play: Jabari Smith, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Clint Capela, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -2.5
Starting with the Cavaliers, they’re another team that made a big splash in the offseason by bringing in Donovan Mitchell from Utah. We’ll have to take a wait-and-see approach on him and this offense in a similar manner, I will say I would anticipate this game to be a little slower with two good defensive units. I do like the price tag on Darius Garland who shouldn’t be impacted too greatly by Mitchell, as he’s used to playing with Collin Sexton in the backcourt with him. One guy that is far too cheap on this team on DraftKings is Evan Mobley at $5.9k… he’s $7.3k on FanDuel which is closer to where he should be but will look like an elite option on DraftKings at the very least. I wouldn’t have a problem with Jarrett Allen either, although he was a bit volatile last season next to Mobley. Then guys like Kevin Love and Caris LeVert will be secondary tournament options. From the Raptors, this team returns much the same as last year where Pascal Siakam led the team with a 26.2% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute last season. The one guy that isn’t underpriced on DraftKings is Fred VanVleet and is actually cheaper on FanDuel. He would be more of a secondary option for me considering some of these other prices. The trio of Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are all solid options as well, but I don’t have a real lean on them in what should be a slower game.
5-star play: Evan Mobley (DK)
4-star play: Darius Garland, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Kevin Love, Caris LeVert, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 227
Vegas Spread: Min -10.5
Starting with the Thunder, their big acquisition in the off-season was bringing in Jaylin Williams from the draft along with Ousmane Dieng. Both guys were run pretty hard in the preseason and looked pretty solid, I would expect they play a nice role in this team right away. That being said, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are going to continue to run this team and be the main pieces I want. Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with a 30.5% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy points per minute last season and looks like a great option again here. Giddey does lose some production with Gilgeous-Alexander in there but has a really nice price tag on FanDuel at $6k. You can probably make a case for guys like Lu Dort and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, but I don’t think we need to get that cute on this slate. From the Timberwolves, yet another team who made a big move in the offseason by bringing in Rudy Gobert. It’s going to be odd seeing Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns starting next to each other, but their interior defense was awful last season and should now sure up a bit. Both Towns and Gobert feel priced appropriately and would be secondary options for me in a great matchup against this Thunder frontcourt. Gobert coming in shouldn’t impact usage rates all that much since he’s not a big usage guy, but I think Anthony Edwards is in for another massive season. He had a 26.7% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute last season and would be a guy I like going right back to here. That being said, I’d probably consider D’Angelo Russell more of a GPP guy due to the volatility we get with him.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaylin Williams, Lu Dort, D’Angelo Russell
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video for this week’s NFL slate as well as you prepare for week 7!
Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 224
Vegas Spread: Cha -1.5
Starting with the Hornets in a game featuring two bad teams, especially now that Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball to kick off the season. Below is how this team operated with Ball off of the court last season:
- Terry Rozier – 25.5% usage rate; 1.09 fantasy points per minute
- Kelly Oubre – 25.9% usage rate; 1.07 fantasy points per minute
- Gordon Hayward – 22.3% usage rate; 1.00 fantasy points per minute
these would be the main pieces I’d be looking at from the Hornets including PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee who will man the frontcourt. Rozier will be the main piece who will fill in for the Hornets and we targeted the Spurs heavily with opposing point guards last season. I don’t expect that to change this year as the Spurs are in full tank mode. They did bring in rookie Mark Williams as well who averaged 4.8 ppg and just 3.4 RPG in 12 minutes per game in the preseason, he won’t be a guy I’m jumping to get to here. From the Spurs, they’ll obviously be without Dejounte Murray as he was traded to the Hawks, so below is how this team operated with him off of the court last season:
- Keldon Johnson – 23.1% usage rate; 0.96 fantasy points per minute
- Tre Jones – 15.6% usage rate; 0.99 fantasy points per minute
- Devin Vassell – 21.2% usage rate; 0.99 fantasy points per minute
They also brought in Jeremy Sochan from the draft, but he’s not a big usage guy so I don’t anticipate a massive usage bump for him… think of him more like a Draymond Green-type player. This team is going to be ugly this season, but they have some pieces we can target tonight at the very least.
5-star play: Terry Rozier, Keldon Johnson
4-star play: Kelly Oubre, Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Tre Jones
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Jermey Sochan
Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 223
Vegas Spread: Den -7.5
Starting with the Nuggets, it’ll be fun to finally see this team healthy with Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. coming back after missing most of last season. Nikola Jokic had a 31.8% usage rate and 1.78 fantasy points per minute last year and I would expect that comes down at least slightly with these guys back. That being said, it’s an elite spot for the Nuggets as a whole as the Jazz is in full tank/rebuild mode with trading Gobert and Mitchell in the offseason. They also brought in Bruce Brown from the Nets and Christian Braun from the draft. I don’t think either of these guys are guys I want to play out of the gate, but interesting pieces to watch as the season progresses. Jokic is the clear elite option on this team, but keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed for updates on any sort of minutes restriction for Murray and Porter Jr. From the Jazz, they’re a completely new team with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell out of town, they’ll be led by a group of Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson (for now, he’ll be a trade piece as well), Collin Sexton, and rookie Ochai Agbaji. Agbaji didn’t play a ton in the preseason so I don’t think I would expect a ton from him right away either. I do think Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Talen Horton-Tucker will be solid value pieces down the road, but aren’t guys I really want to risk it with tonight… they’re those guys we’d go to in previous seasons when their original teams were shorthanded, but yeah, not guys I’m going to tonight. The main pieces I’ll look at are those guards in Conley, Clarkson, and Sexton but none are primary plays for me.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jamaal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 216
Vegas Spread: Pho -4.5
Starting with the Mavericks, this team is staying mostly the same as well outside of Christian Wood being brought in, and sounds like he’ll be coming off of the bench which may be a really nice role for him, especially at a nice price tag. I think you can make a case for him right off the bat here. He won’t need to fight for usage AS much with Luka Doncic who led the team with a 37.6% usage rate and 1.56 fantasy points per minute last season and is an early-season MVP candidate, he’s also a great option in all formats. I don’t expect to get a ton from the rest of this team, similar to last season, Doncic absorbs so much usage that it’s hard to prioritize any other pieces, especially on a big slate like we have tonight. From the Suns, the only piece they’ve gained/lost will be Jae Crowder who won’t be with the team as they look for a trade partner for him. Phoenix was always a team I had a hard time getting to last season when they were fully healthy, but we saw Devin Booker lead the team with a 32.2% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute, and is a fine option here. The same can be said for Chris Paul, but I would imagine the Suns want to take it easier on Paul this season to help set him up for a rested playoff run, so I’m lower on him to start the season. There is some potential drama stirring with DeAndre Ayton as well as he was rumored to be going to the Nets in some sort of Kevin Durant deal earlier in the offseason after they didn’t sign him to the huge extension he was looking for. That being said, Wood is an awful interior defender, so I think Ayton looks like a nice option in all formats. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are fine secondary options, Johnson should see a boost this season with Crowder out.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Christian Wood, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson
Portland Trailblazers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 227
Vegas Spread: Sac -2.0
We’ll round the slate out starting with the Blazers who are coming back a bit healthier than we saw them at the end of last season with guys like Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, and Josh Hart all coming back. They also brought in Jerami Grant in free agency and Shaedon Sharpe from the draft. Sharpe averaged 11.8 points per game in the preseason and is a guy that I think will be really good in this league, but I don’t think we can go to him right off the bat. Lillard obviously led this team with a 33% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute last season and will be a guy I like again here against a bad Kings defense that will want to play fast. Anferee Simons will lose some production from what we saw late last season with this team getting healthy as well, so more of a secondary option than anything. I do like the price tag on guys like Nurkic, Grant, and Hart though in this mid-range. From the Kings, they kept their team pretty much the same other than drafting Keegan Murray who will miss this game, and bringing in Kevin Huerter as well. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis will be the big DFS pieces from this team. Fox had a 28.9% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute while Sabonis was at a 24.6% usage rate and 1.31 fantasy points per minute, both guys look like nice options in a good matchup here. Then guys like Harrison Barnes and Huerter will be more of GPP options than anything.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Jusuf Nurkic, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter
NBA Lock of the Day: Evan Mobley (DK – $5.9k; FD – $7.3k)
I will say this is more of a DraftKings play than anything, this price tag is far too cheap for him over there. We’re used to seeing Mobley in the $7k range last season – he had a 20.7% usage rate and nearly a fantasy point per minute last season. It’s a price play, he’s too cheap, and I think he’s in for a huge year. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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