NFL DFS is about making the right decision. Should we smash that play into our lineups or pass on it completely? Smash or Pass Key Decisions for Fantasy Football will help you quickly see who is for real and who is just noise for the week ahead…
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NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa– Tua is projected to have about a 10.77% ownership this weekend against a porous Detroit defense. Tua came back from his scary concussion last week and showed no ill effects and was solid. I love Tua this week with a stack of Waddle and/or Hill. Last week Tua completed 21 of 35 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown. While he is projected to be one of the highest owned quarterbacks this week at 10.77% I’ll take him. SMASH Tua this weekend in a juicy matchup.
Jalen Hurts– DFS Army’s Chalk Boards projects Hurts to have about 10.58% ownership this week which I think is low. Hurts is one of safest plays this week and has a decent matchup against the Steelers. Hurts has scored over 25 fantasy point in all but 2 games this year. The Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL and Pittsburgh ain’t playing that well. SMASH Hurts this week with no worries.
Sam Ehlinger- Ehlinger is making his NFL debut this weekend for the Colts and everyone likes a shiny new toy. Ehlinger is projected to have the highest fantasy points per dollar on the slate at 4.26 and his ownership, while early, is around 5%. Ehlinger is a scrambling quarterback that brings a whole new element to this Colts offense who struggled with Ryan at the helm. In my opinion, Sam will be the most played quarterback this week because of his 4k price tag and he does have a decent matchup against Washington this week. There are just too many unknowns and he’s going to be way too chalky for me this week. PASS Sam Ehlinger this week until we see what he can do and have more tangible data to go off. Some exposure is ok but if you play him stack him with Pittman.
NFL DFS Running Backs
Saquon Barkley– DFS Army’s Chalk Board projects Barkley to have an ownership of around 20.86% this week. Barkley has been amazing this year and has the Giants sitting at 6-1 on the year. This week they face a Seattle team that people are sleeping on. The Seahawks defense held Austin Ekeler to only 31 rushing yards on 9 carries last week. Saquon is averaging 103.7 yards per game and has 4 rushing touchdowns so far this season. I think I would feel better about following the chalk IF the Giants were at home but they play in Seattle and with his projected ownership we can find value elsewhere. PASS on Barkley this week in a tough road contest where he is too chalky.
Oct 23, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) moves the ball against Los Angeles Chargers cornerback J.C. Jackson (27) during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Kenneth Walker III- Week 8 Super Sneaky SMASH- According to Box Checkers for Week 8, Walker is at home with his team favored to win which, historically speaking, bodes well for him from a DFS standpoint. Walker’s projected ownership is roughly 14.48% for the Rookie of the Year candidate. Walker rushed for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against the Chargers. With DK Metcalf out I see Pete Carroll going run heavy and that means volume for Kenneth. I actually prefer Walker over Barkley due to the environment. Seattle is a hostile environment and I see Walker outperforming Barkley this week. SMASH Walker this week.
Derrick Henry– Henry is projected to have an ownership of around 21% for good reason. King Henry, over his three games, has rushed for over 100 yards and scored 3 touchdowns. This week he gets a matchup against the worst running defense in the league. Houston has given up 988 rushing yards to opposing running backs while surrendering 8 rushing touchdowns. This is a smash spot for Henry and even with his ownership likely to be high its for a good reason. SMASH Henry as one of the top plays this week at running back.
Tony Pollard- Week 8 Sleeper #2 – Elliot is out this week which means Pollard will get the start and the volume needed to be a viable RB1. The last time Zeke missed a game was clear back in 2020. In that game, Pollard rushed for 69 yards, had 6 catches for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns. Pollards ownership projection is around 5.89% against a Chicago defense that just traded Robert Quinn. Smash Pollard this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Davante Adams– The Chalk Board projects Davante to have about 20.05% ownership this week . I have not been thrilled to see Adams play like I did when he was in Green Bay with Rodgers. Davante has been solid this year so far but has also put up some duds. With his price tag on FanDuel and DraftKings he needs to put up over 30 points to make it worth paying for him. It is also worth noting that Adams has a questionable tag this week as he is sick with a bad case of the flu. Las Vegas travels to New Orleans this week. PASS on Adams this week. There are too many questions around him and if I am paying up for a wide receiver I want to set it and forget it, not have doubts.
Tyreek Hill– Tyreek’s ownership this week is projected to be around 21.35% . The Cheetah last week was a dud in comparison to his price. This week is a bounce back or as Geek likes to put it “Stud off a Dud”. I love Hill this week against Detroit and a stack with Tua makes it even better. Hill is the leagues top receiver this year averaging 110.4 receiving yards per game. According to the Domination Station, Hill is projected to score 22.56 fantasy points. The projected ownership worries me a bit which leads me to say this: SMASH Hill IF stacking with Tua. The value is there and people will be all over it this week.
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NFL DFS Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee– Higbee is projected to have around 11.19% ownership this week. The Rams are facing the 49ers this week, and we all know what happened to San Francisco last week. As a matter of fact, I told people to PASS on 49ers defense in my Smash or Pass for Week 7. Don’t let last weeks game fool you; this Niners defense is good and while Kelce caught 6 passes for 98 yards Higbee isn’t as good and Stafford sucks this year so far. Higbee, so far, has caught 34 passes for a 297 yards but has not scored a touchdown yet this year. I would like Higbee more if Stafford wasn’t his quarterback but I see Kupp dominating this game in every aspect and for that I PASS on Higbee.
NFL DFS Defense and Special Teams.
Dallas DST– The Chalk Board projects Dallas’ ownership to be about 9.23%. This week they face a resurgent Bears teams that is coming off a monster win in New England. And like New England, Dallas struggles against mobile quarterbacks which limits the potential of sacks. Not saying Dallas doesn’t get Fields a few times but he his Houdini when it comes to escaping the pressure. While the numbers and analytics all point to Dallas dominating in this game, they only scored 4 fantasy points against Philadelphia which has a mobile quarterback. PASS on Dallas this week. They are the most expensive DST on the slate and I don’t think enough people are giving Chicago much thought despite what they did against a good New England defense.