The Simple Six- NFL DFS Plays Week 3

This is shaping up to be a really fun week 3 main slate.  So far, we’ve had some good hits in this column (week 1 Saquon, week 2 Drake London).  There have also been some bad misses (week 1 Alex Pierce as Pittman leverage, going back to the Saquon well in week 2).

I am going to change it up a bit this week and give you my plays in a way that feels most consistent with how I’m actually building my lineups.  Last week, there was one game to rule them all (Baltimore v Miami).  The Geek has been known to label these type of spots as the “precious.”

This doesn’t feel like a “precious” week to me.  There are at least 4 or 5 really good spots on the schedule.  I am going to start by giving you 4 game stacks and how I am building them.  I’ll finish with two one-off running back plays that I will be working in with the game stacks.

Pretty much every stat I needed to write this article was pulled from our guy Garrett Thomas’ twitter feed.  If you are not following him already, click the button now.  No one in the industry tweets out more actionable fantasy football stats and research.

 

 

1- Rams at Cardinals, total 48.5

 

You don’t need me to tell you to play Cooper Kupp.  With a 38.2% target share, after two weeks, the regression monster is getting left in the dust.  At $9,900 on DraftKings he is certainly expensive, but when you pair him with two of his cheaper teammates, the total price of the stack becomes somewhat affordable.

Matt Stafford is a reasonable $6,500 and Tyler Higbee is entirely too cheap at only $4,500.  The Cardinals have been the worst defense in the league against TE for the first two weeks and Higbee is averaging a healthy 10 targets a game over that same span.

Kupp and Higbee will be a relatively chalky combination, but I will be running it back with Hollywood Brown, who we only project to be around 5% owned.  Brown hasn’t busted that big play yet, but he’s coming off an 11 target effort.  At home, against a beatable Ram secondary, I could see Brown breaking out.

 

2- Bills at Dolphins, total 53

 

Josh Allen and Stef Diggs are projecting to be the highest owned players on the slate at their positions, but this is a dangerous spot to fade.  Both offenses are absolutely humming and Buffalo looks like they are going to be playing without multiple starters on defense.

Everyone is going to have Allen and Diggs stacked and run it back with either Hill or Waddle who combine for over 60% of their team’s targets.  You can try to get a bit different by mixing in Gabe Davis and/or Dawson Knox who both should only be around 5% owned.  No one is going to want to play Chase Edmonds after he took a back seat Mostert last week.  If Miami is playing from behind, he could rack up some grabs at extremely low ownership.

 

3-  Lions at Vikings, total 52.5

 

This is an easy game to double stack on either side.  The quarterbacks are cheap, $6,700 for Cousins and $5,800 for Goff.  There are no discounts on Jefferson at $9,300, but his price can easily be averaged down when paired with $3,100 TE Irv Smith.  The 8 targets that Big Irv received in week two were not factored into his pricing, as the Vikings played on Monday night.  After missing most of the preseason, and being worked in slowly week one, Smith is returning to form.

The obviously run back is the hottest man on the planet, the Sun God Amon-Ra St. Brown.  His target share over his last 8 games is an obscene 32.8%.  This is no longer a small sample size.  At $7,200, the price still hasn’t caught up.  I am willing to buy low ($4,200) on TJ Hockenson as secondary stacking partner.  His target share of 19.7% is 5th best amongst tight ends.  It shows that he is still involved in the offense, even if the results haven’t been there over two weeks.

 

4- Chiefs at Colts, total of 50.5

 

This might be my favorite game to stack because I think it will get somewhat overlooked relative to all the other good spots on the slate.  JuJu and Jonathan Taylor have the highest projected ownership in the game, despite both only coming in at around 8%.  There is not another player in the game currently projecting to be over 6% owned.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in games played in a dome, while averaging 339 yards and 2.5 TDs (stats courtesy of @kyle_borg). And I can play him at 5% ownership?

I am going to have Mahomes rotated through in stacks with MVS, JuJu, and Kelce.  I am running it back with a relatively low owned Taylor.  If this game is going to to remain competitive and shoot out to the GPP winning level that I want it to, Indy is going to need their star running back to bust off a few big plays.

 

5- Joe Mixon, $7,600 on Draftkings

 

I am going to use a couple more Garrett Thomas stats to drive my point home on this one.  The Jets have been the 5th worst defense in the league against running backs, allowing 22.1 PPR fantasy points per game.  Joe Mixon has the highest team rushing share (95.8%) of any back in the league.  The Bengals are even involving Mixon in the passing game more this season.  He averaged 6.5 targets over the first two weeks.

Cincinnati is a desperate team.  The defending AFC Champions do not want to be 0-3.  I like Mixon to find the end zone twice against a Jet defense that surrendered 3 TDs to Nick Chubb just a week ago.

 

6- Dameon Pierce, $5,000 on DraftKings

 

We are going to need to save some salary, and at just 5K, the rookie Texan RB is a good place to do so.  After an impressive preseason, we all felt great about our mid-to-late round best ball shares of Pierce.  He then went out and bricked in week one, playing only 29% of the snaps as opposed to 71% for veteran Rex Burkhead.  The Texans saw the error in their ways.  Coach Lovie Smith told the Houston Chronicle that, “We need to get Dameon more touches.”

In week two Pierce got all 15 of Houston’s RB carries, which he turned into 69 yards.  It’s not the most exciting game log, but if you watched the film it was clear that Pierce brought a physical and decisive presence on his snaps.  Chicago Tribune reporter Dan Wiederer tweeted this quote from Lovie, “We as a football team need to finish (better).  I haven’t said that an awful lot to Dameon.  He finishes plays.  (He’s) what we want to be.  Toughness.  Extra effort.  All those things you talk about is exactly what we see from him.”

I think Pierce scores his first touchdown as pro and provides value at a cheap price.

 

It has been fantastic start to the season for DFS Army, including a takedown of the Milly Maker on DraftKings.  Start using the Domination Station optimizer, along with all the content and tools that are making it happen.  We’ve extended our preseason 20% off discount on VIP Access. Sign up and join us on the leaderboards!