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NFL Week 3 Yahoo DFS Picks

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) celebrate a touch down during the third quarter at Highmark Stadium Monday, Sept. 19, 2022, in Orchard Park, New York.
Nfl Tennessee Titans At Buffalo Bills
Syndication The Tennessean

Cash Plays

The Week 2 DFS Main Slate was another great week of Cash Games for DFS Army. We paid up for Lamar Jackson and were awarded with 42 points. Amon-Ra St. Brown also smashed with 34.90 points and by eating chalk, we were able to stomach modest performances from the rest of our lineup to hit the cash line. Week 3 is shaping up as a great slate with some of the league’s best back on the main slate so let’s look at the Vegas lines for game environments we might want to target.

Buffalo at Miami (52.5 game total.)

Detroit at Minnesota (52.5 game total.)

Kansas City at Indianapolis (50.5 game total.)

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona (48.5 game total.)

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen $38

I’m not sure how Josh Allen isn’t the highest priced QB on the slate. The Bills look unstoppable, and MVP Candidate Allen has averaged over 30 points a game in his first 2 games. This is the highest game total on the slate and I’m going to do everything I can to get up to Allen this week at his salary.

Jalen Hurts $34

Hurts has been off to an amazing start and looked his best thus far throwing the Football against Minnesota on Monday night. His floor is high with his rushing work, averaging 75 yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns. He’s a safe cash game play and will be my cash game QB if I can’t afford the extra $4 to pay up for Allen.

Jared Goff $20 

Goff has both Cash game and Tournament consideration for me on Yahoo based solely on his pricing. He’s currently 10th in scoring but priced the same as backups like Gabbert, Siemian, Keenum, Bridgewater, etc. He’s vastly underpriced and if I don’t play him in Cash, I promise I will be looking to exploit his salary in tournaments as the Lions have one of the highest team totals on the slate.

RunningBacks

Joe Mixon $29

Mixon has averaged 28.5 touches over the past two games, and he’s got an awesome matchup this week vs the Jets. He’s got the kind of volume that we chase in our cash games for floor and could smash this week vs a team that Chubb thrashed for 3 touchdowns last week.

Leonard Fournette $27

Uncle Lenny has touched the ball 24 times in each of his last two games and the Bucs are entering a game where Evans is suspended, Godwin is out, and Julio may be out too. I like Lenny to continue to get elite usage and his salary is cheap for his usage. He’s currently projected as the top owned back on the slate as well at 15%.

David Montgomery $18

Montgomery’s been very effective with his touches as he averaged 8 Yards per carry on 15 attempts last week vs Green Bay for 122 yards. Next up is a Houston team that gave up 122 yards to Williams and Gordon last week in their game vs Denver. Montgomery comes in as the third highest Fantasy Points Per Dollar RB this week on the Domination Station behind Patterson, Carter, and is projected to score more than both RBs at 13.16 points.

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DFS Football Tips

 

Wide Receivers 

Cooper Kupp $40

Kupp is always a play in any format because his usage and efficiency are off the charts. His 38% target share is still the best in the league, and he’s averaged almost 26 points per game to start the season. He’s priced appropriately at the highest salary of $40. If you pay down at QB, you can afford to play Kupp.

Stefon Diggs $31

Diggs is the Best WR for the Best QB in the league right now and those two are on fire. His 38% target share last week with Davis out fueled his 38-point performance on Yahoo and he’s a bit underpriced compared to guys like Adams and Kupp who he has just as high of a ceiling as. He’s my top Cash game play this week on Yahoo with the highest game total on the slate. 

Amon-Ra. St. Brown $28

Amon-Ra is finally priced up closer to where he should be. He has a 33% target share on the season and has averaged 26 points through 2 games as he comes off of a GPP winning performance last week. I’m rolling with him again in cash with his elite usage in what figures to be the highest game total on the slate. 

Curtis Samuel $18

Samuel leads all commanders with a 23% target share and is still underpriced for a guy average 17 points in his last 2 games. Samuel is a lock for my cash lineup this week.

Russell Gage $16

Every lineup needs some sort of value and Gage fits the bill here. No Evans, Godwin, and possibly Julio. Brady has to throw to someone and Gage is the best option for Tampa. DFS Army has Gage projected for 9.7 points and is the 2nd highest Fantasy Points Per Dollar WR at .75.

Tight Ends

TJ Hockenson $16

I prefer paydown options at Tight End in my cash games, but Hockenson is probably as high as I’d go. He carries a 19.72% target share after 2 games and is playing in a game environment that projects as the highest scoring on the slate. DFS Army’s Domination Station has him as the highest projected TE on the slate from a Fantasy Points Per Dollar basis at .61.

Zach Ertz $15

At similar pricing and usage, Ertz is an option as well on Yahoo. He has an 18% target share through 2 games and has back-to-back games of double-digit points which is about as much as you can ask for in a Tight End priced in the teens on Yahoo.

Juwan Johnson $10

I played Juwan last week in Cash and he did enough at minimum pricing. He has a 16% target share through 2 games. His pricing is the same this week and he projects as the third highest Fantasy Points Per Dollar Tight End at .59. I also have some consideration to play Irv Smith at similar pricing, but his drops have me concerned he might see a reduction in opportunities.

DST

Carolina Panthers $10

In cash games, we look for paydown options at DST. We’re looking for value from a Fantasy Points Per Dollar basis and the Panthers project to score 7.54 points at $10. Winston turned the ball over 3 times last week so that’s an Offense you’d look to target with your DST.

Las Vegas Raiders $10

The Raiders have a similar matchup this week vs the Titans. Tennessee has struggled to protect Tannehill and he was under pressure all night vs Buffalo which resulted in 2 interceptions. I Prefer Carolina but the Raiders are in play as well.

 

Top Stack of the Week:

Jared Goff & Amon-Ra St. Brown

Stack Price: $48 of $200 Salary.

Stack Projected Ownership: 17.94%

Normally Goff would be way down my list in Quarterbacks I’d look to target for my tournament stacks. However, this game carries a 52.5-point game total, and the Lions have one of the highest team totals on the slate.

Furthermore, Goff is currently 10th in Half-PPR scoring and yet Yahoo has him priced alongside all the Back-up Quarterbacks at the $20 minimum pricing. At $20, there’s a lot of different ways you can go with Goff stacks, and I plan to heavily stack him even if he ends up being chalk as there’s a lot of ways that you can get different elsewhere at that kind of salary relief from the QB Position. Goff, Amon-Ra, Hockenson, Swift and the Minnesota bring backs are all in play for me.

 

Top Leverage Plays:

Austin Ekeler at 8.4%

Ekeler has been a disappointment for those who spent a 1st round pick on him in redraft or have paid up for him in DFS but he saw a big bump in targets last week as Herbert’s ribs were hurt and he started dumping off to Ekeler. He has yet to see the endzone and is due for some positive regression there. I like his chances to get there if he continues to see a 22% target share.

D’Andre Swift at 4.9%

It’s only Wednesday and we won’t have a great idea of Ownership until Saturday but if Swift is really coming at low ownership in the highest projected game total on the slate, I’m all about it. I want Swift in Goff stacks as is so I’ll gladly take him at low ownership.

Alvin Kamara at 3.65%

If Kamara plays, I like taking some shots with him with the field practically fading him entirely.  Winston threw 3 picks last week and getting Kamara going could be the cure. RBs have been bad this year so the best way to leverage the field is a big game from a low owned back like Kamara is projected to be. He’s a bit pricey for my liking this week so I won’t have a lot of exposure but the matchup against a soft Carolina Run Defense sets up nicely for his return.

Ja’Marr Chase at 4% 

Recency Bias is your biggest enemy in DFS if you allow it to be. On the contrary, you can be aware of it and play a 4% owned Chase going against the Jets as the field fades him.

Jaylen Waddle at 5.89%

Is the field really going to fade Waddle after a monster game, a 33% target share, and being matched up against the Bills in a game that projects as the highest game on the slate? If they do, I’ll definitely be overweight on Waddle this week.

Mike Williams at 4.47%

If Allen is out again, I’ll gladly play Williams again at 4% ownership. Williams had a 22% target share with Allen out and the Jaguars look to be much better this year so this game might be more competitive than we expected when the schedule first came out.

Waller at 2%

Adams shapes up to be chalk again and the perfect way to get direct leverage off of him is Waller. TE is a position of high variance so taking a shot at a top 5 tight end in the game at low ownership is a positive EV move in tournaments.

 

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