DFS NFL Week 3 DraftKings Milly Maker Review

Patriots defensive end #9 Matthew Judon tries to run down Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in the 1st quarter.
14 Patriots 092522 Bb

Stacking in the Milly Maker

The thick Game Stack being back in DFS was short lived as the high scoring that kicked off the first 2 weeks of the NFL Season was nowhere to be found this past Sunday. In fact, well into the 4th Quarter of the Afternoon games we had a 206-point team winning the Milly Maker with a Chalky 36% owned David Montgomery in the lineup; Yes, the same guy who left the game injured and had barely scored over a point for all 32% of Milly Maker lineups that had him.

Stacking, however, isn’t going away and Mark Andrews popped up in the winning Stack again this week; this time with Lamar Jackson and not as the bring back. There were no bring backs this week. In fact, there were no other stacks in the winning lineup. The one stack of Lamar and Andrews was highly efficient from both a scoring and leverage standpoint.

Lamar Jackson 43.42
Leonard Fournette 12
Dameon Pierce 18.1
Jaylen Waddle 18.1
Allen Lazard 14.5
Devonta Smith 33.9
Mark Andrews 28.9
Mack Hollins 32.96
Jaguars DST 9
Total 210.88

 

Total Stacking Points: 72.32

Lamar 43.42 + Andrews 28.9

Player Average: 36.16

$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership

Lamar Jackson 2.31%
Leonard Fournette 15.96%
Dameon Pierce 13.90%
Jaylen Waddle 16.86%
Allen Lazard 1.41%
Devonta Smith 5.61%
Mark Andrews 2.64%
Mack Hollins 8.81%
Jaguars DST 15.72%
Total 83.22%

 

After Week 1 when the winning Milly Maker lineup was 115% total ownership, we’ve seen a sharp decline in total ownership in the following 2 weeks. Last week it hovered near the 2021 average when it was at 96%, and this week, we have a total of 83%. With an extremely low owned but high scoring stack of Lamar & Andrews, this was the best leverage play on the slate, and this drastically changed total ownership.

Leverage

Lamar Jackson & Mark Andrews at 4.95%

The skinny stack of Lamar and Mark Andrews was thick when it came to points, averaging 36 points apiece. What really set this lineup apart from the rest of the field, though, is the total ownership of only 4.95%. For comparison, the 4-player stack that took down the Milly Maker in week 2 had a combined 33% ownership between the 4 players and was quite the leverage play off of competing stacks from the field. From a leverage standpoint, this stack is an outlier among outliers.

Mack Hollins at 8.81%

With Renfrow out, Mack Hollins was a smash play at $3300 and 8% ownership from the field. DFS Army’s Domination Station was all over Mack Hollins this week as a Fantasy Points Per Dollar standout. One thing I have noticed with players priced near the minimum is stacking is less necessary as they don’t need to do a lot to ‘get there’ with their pricing. Hollins crushed at his salary and was such a great leverage play producing almost 10X and under 10% ownership.

Devonta Smith at 5.61%

Where has this been? Turns out I was a week too early on the Smith smash game as he was the play this week with Hurts. Smith was the top scoring Wide Receiver on the slate and the top WR leverage play at his ownership of only 5%.

DFS Football Tips

Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest

Lamar Jackson $8000 5.42X
Leonard Fournette $6500 1.84X
Dameon Pierce $5000 3.62X
Jaylen Waddle $6800 2.66X
Allen Lazard $6000 2.41X
Devonta Smith $5200 6.51X
Mark Andrews $6900 4.18X
Mack Hollins $3300 9.98X
Jaguars DST $2300 3.91X
Total $50000 4.21X

 

We only have Lamar & Andrews here as the only players with top 5 Pricing at their position. You’ll notice that we have no RB or WR priced in the 8-10K range. This is a trend that we see in most Milly Maker winners and occasionally a Kupp, Henry, or Taylor priced player will pop up in the winning lineup, but more times than not, we see Running Backs and Wide Receivers priced in the 5-7k range in winning lineups. This is also the third week in a row that we’ve seen a DST below $2500 and twice it’s been the Jaguars DST. Safe to say most people didn’t see that coming. Mack Hollins finished as the top Fantasy Points Per Dollar play at almost 10X his salary!

The Ceiling Fluctuates

After 2 weeks where we watched the ceiling of the Milly Maker rise and push to new heights, in Week 3, we saw a huge drop-off in scoring and a 210-point score won the Milly Maker. We saw a lot of low 200 scores in 2021 and that lowered the average in 2021 to 233 points. We won’t overreact to one week in the same way that we didn’t overreact after week 2 and start building crazy game stacks. What we saw Week 3, however, was closer to what we saw in 2021 where small stacks reigned King.

There are certain game environments that you want to have exposure to thick stacks and there are others where you want to target team stacks and not force bring backs. This was the week for that, and it certainly won’t be the last. With a 210-point total, only an average of 23.3 points was needed to take home the $1,000,000 and after you take out the 72-point team stack of Lamar + Andrews, this average drops to 19 points across the remaining 7 players. With 7 unstacked players in the lineup, this is much more doable than in other weeks when you might need a 20–25-point average from those players.

Between the Ravens Stack and Ceiling like performances from Devonta Smith and Mack Collins, Abedollars was able to withstand low scoring by GPP winning standards from players in this construction such as Fournette, Pierce, Waddle, and Lazard.

We’ll certainly see higher scoring in the coming weeks than we did in Week 3 but when we have a slate with low projected game totals, Week 3 is definitely one to keep in mind in regard to Lineup Construction. Follow FantasyFling on twitter for any specific Milly Maker questions and be sure to look out for the MME & Milly Maker review every week on DFS Army’s Youtube Channel.

 

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