Sep 18, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) looks to throws to wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) during the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Stacking in the Milly Maker
Anytime you have one game go nuclear on the slate, you’re going to see game stacking take down large field GPP’s like the Milly Maker.
It makes sense, right? There are thousands of lineups and you’re sitting there thinking that just someone has stacked that game, so your lineup really has no shot at the top spot if you didn’t stack that game.
The Week 2 matchup between the Dolphins and Ravens was that game that went Nuclear with 80 total points and thus a game stack of QB + WR + WR + TE featuring this game was in the winning Milly Maker Lineup.
The winning lineup scored a mind boggling 284 points so how many of those points were produced from this stack? Let’s take a look.
| Tua Tagovailoa | 43.86 |
| Nick Chubb | 32.3 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 12.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 45 |
| A. St. Brown | 42.4 |
| Jalen Waddle | 43.1 |
| Mark Andrews | 28.7 |
| Greg Dortch | 15.5 |
| Jaguars DST | 21 |
| Total | 284.16 |
Total Stacking Points: 160.66
Player Average: 40.16
Tua, Hill, and Waddle all had over 40 points in this stack with Andrews as the bring back with 28 points. The ceiling will never be higher for players than a shootout game script as evident here with 4 players averaging a scorching 40 points apiece.
$1,000,000 Milli Maker Ownership
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3.6% |
| Nick Chubb | 8.4% |
| Jeff wilson jr. | 10.4% |
| Tyreek Hill | 14.4% |
| A. St. Brown | 19.7% |
| Jalen Waddle | 6.3% |
| Mark Andrews | 9.2% |
| Greg Dortch | 21.3% |
| Jaguars DST | 1.8% |
| Ownership | 95.1% |
Not only did the Miami/Baltimore Game stack have plentiful amount of scoring with 160 total points, but the ownership of this stack was very low at 33.5% total.
With 6 players at 10% ownership or less, this lineup had a total ownership of 95.1% which was on par with the average total team ownership that we saw in all of 2021 winning lineups. (96.5%) The chalk will smash from time to time as it did in Week 1 when DFS Army VIP RapidFireXD won the Milly Maker. However, keeping ownership under 100% is what you’ll see in the majority of Milly Maker winning lineups.
Leverage
The Tua + Hill + Waddle + Andrews stack was the definition of leverage in DFS. Here you have a stack of 4 players that only garnered 33% combined ownership and yet scored 160 of the 284 points that won the Milly Maker. On the contrary, in that same contest you had a Carr + Adams stack that totaled 52% ownership between the 2 players.
Other Leverage Plays
Jaguars DST at 1.8%
Playing a low owned Defense in the Milly Maker is always the way to go because it’s a position of high variance. The easiest way to get leverage on the field is fading the chalk at DST because we know that it’s way more likely to bust than smash. The 40% owned Bengals vs the 1.8% owned Jaguars was the perfect illustration of this in the Week 2 Milly Maker contest.
Nick Chubb at 8.4%
Chubb was leverage off of a lot of chalky backs who busted in relation to their salary; CMC was 11% owned and scored 19, Gibson was 19% owned and scored 12, Mixon was 15% owned and scored 11, Javonte was 19% owned and scored 9, and finally Barkley was 43% owned and only scored 11.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Tua Tagovailoa | $5600 | 7.83X |
| Nick Chubb | $7100 | 4.54X |
| Jeff Wilson jr. | $5100 | 2.41X |
| Tyreek Hill | $7100 | 6.33X |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $6500 | 6.52X |
| Jalen Waddle | $6400 | 6.73X |
| Mark Andrews | $6400 | 4.41X |
| Greg Dortch | $3500 | 4.42X |
| Jaguars DST | $2300 | 9.13X |
| Total | $50000 | 5.69X |
Scoring is up thus far in the Milly Maker winners this year and the Fantasy Points per Dollar is undoubtedly up with it. This lineup saw 5 players pay off over 6X their salary. Furthermore, Tua hit 7X and the Jaguars hit 9X for an average of 5.69X. We continue to see lineup constructions with RBs and WRs priced in the 5-7K range instead of 1-2 players in the 8-9K range. Several players priced in the 6-7K range like Chubb, Waddle, Hill, and Andrews have the type of ceiling of 8-9K priced players but not necessarily the same floor – thus reflected in their price.
Raise the Ceiling
284 points is the most I can ever remember from a Milly Maker Winner. We had 279 points once in 2020 and the highest we saw in all of 2021 was just shy of 270. This lineup absolutely smashed the 250-point target score that you aim for in a contest of this size and was 15 points higher than 2nd place. When you game stack with elite players, this is the kind of ceiling that is possible as a game pops off. Hill, Waddle, & Andrews all have a high ceiling. Tua showed on Sunday that he does too as he scored 6 Touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown has naysayers deleting old tweets as he’s clearly elite enough to get there on his own and Chubb still has the ability to take it to the house on any play.
Through 2 weeks we now have a 267 average winning score which is 30 points higher than the average we had in 2021. Will this be the new trend, or will it regress back to the mean? We know stacking is king and in 2021 we saw team stacks take over after a year of game stacking dominating in 2020. This week’s stack was a thick game stack that brought scoring to new heights, & we’ll keep an eye on these aspects of lineup construction as we continue to review what’s working to win $1,000,000.
If you want to use the tools that multiple DFS Army VIP’s have used to win $1,000,000, use code DFSARMY at checkout to gain access to coaching, content, and tools our members are using to put their names on the top of leaderboards in every DFS contest. Join DFS Army Here.
