NFL Week 1 Yahoo DFS Picks

Cash Plays

I cashed 13 out of 17 weeks last season in Cash Games due to utilizing DFS Army’s Chalk Board. In cash games, you’re looking to target high floor players who are projected as Chalk.

Meaning that a high percentage of the field is going to be playing these players; We do this because it provides us somewhat of a safety net if that player fails to produce. In cash games such as 50/50s, you’re only trying to beat 50% of the field. You may make slight changes to what the field is doing, but you don’t need to get much different from what the field is doing. If out of 100 players, you finish in the top 50, it makes no difference whether you placed 50th or 1st. You still cashed the same and thus are not trying to gain leverage on the entire field – we save that for GPP’s.

With that in mind, we’re paying for floor & piecing our lineup together based on finding high floor players near the top of the chalk board.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts $33

In cash games, you’re paying for floor. You want players with high median scoring and not a lot of variance in their scoring from week to week. Running QB’s like Hurts and Murray bring that with their rushing ability and I love that cheat code in cash games.

Kyler Murray $33

The only downside with Murray’s game from a fantasy standpoint is when he’s banged up but it’s week 1 so that’s not a concern. This is the highest projected game on the slate and Murray could easily finish as the QB1 this week. Floor wise, he’s as safe as they come and you want that in your cash games. DFS Army projections have him as the 4th highest projected QB at 21.99 points on Yahoo.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor $40

Jonathan Taylor going up against the Texans Week 1 is as good as a cash game lock as it gets. He’s averaged over 25+ points against Houston in the last 2 meetings and that’s exactly the kind of floor that you want from Cash game players.

Christian Mccaffrey $37

He’s healthy and comes with that high floor & ceiling production that make him playable in all formats, especially cash games. The one decision that could decide whether you cash or not in week 1 is whether you play Taylor or CMC at similar pricing and ownership numbers. That said, in Yahoo’s Half-PPR format, I’m rolling with Taylor over CMC who is a much stronger option on DK with the PPR format.

Saquon Barkley $18

Barkley will be in my Yahoo cash lineup based on pricing, volume, and chalk. His pricing on Yahoo at $18 is the equivalent of a $4500 back on DK. With Matt Breida as the backup and Barkley now 100% healthy, I’d expect Barkley to get about 20 carries and some targets in the passing game. DFS Army ownership projections currently have him as the highest owned back so there’s chalk safety there for your cash games and the salary relief to play 3 backs.

Dameon Pierce $11

The matchup is not good, and we don’t know what his volume will be, but I will have a lot of interest in Pierce in cash if his ownership climbs much higher than the 2% currently projected. $11 is 52nd in RB Pricing and yet he’s one of 32 starting Running Backs. The volume at that price is difficult to pass up.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson $31

The talk all offseason has been Jefferson playing the Kupp role in Minnesota’s offense that is expected to be much more pass heavy this season. He’s the highest projected WR on the slate and 6th currently in ownership on DFS Army’s Chalk Board.

Davante Adams $28

They paid him a lot of money and Carr wants to get his boy going Week 1 in the 2nd highest game total on the slate. Adams is about a half point behind Jefferson in projections and at a $3 salary discount.

Michael Pittman $23

Pittman should get volume in this offense like a Wide Receiver priced in the $30 range but he’s only $23 on Yahoo. At that value, he should be very chalky and will continue be the WR1 in the Colts’ Offense with an upgrade at QB this year.

Marquise Brown $18

With Rondale Moore sidelined at Friday’s practice with a Hamstring injury, I feel good about Marquise Brown in Arizona this week as that target share should be condensed if Moore misses action. $18 is shaping up to be one of the best WR values on the slate in the highest projected game total. I’ll keep an eye on the chalk board, but Brown is currently top 5 in ownership & that provides that safety net I’m looking for in my cash game plays.

Rashod Bateman $16

This is the best WR pricing on the slate as Bateman slides in as the WR 1 in Baltimore’s offense with Hollywood Brown’s departure. 8+ Targets is likely, and this is a smash spot for Baltimore this week going against the Joe Flacco led Jets.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews $29

I likely won’t pay all the way up for Andrews in cash, but you can’t argue with Lamar’s top target Andrews this week in a great matchup. I will have a lot of exposure to Andrews in Lamar stacks in GPP’s. He’s really in play in all formats.

Travis Kelce $28

MVS, Juju, & Skyy Moore are all new targets for Mahomes and we have no idea who he will like more at WR. Kelce, however, is old reliable and in the highest projected game on the slate. The floor is as safe as it gets for cash games.

Kyle Pitts $16

Pitts is the Tight End I’ll likely be playing this week as I generally prefer the pay down options at the ever so volatile Tight End position and Pitts comes with TE1 upside at almost half the price as the TE1 Tier.

DST

Washington Commanders $14

DST is a high variance position, so my strategy in cash games is to find a cheaper option in a good matchup. Lawrence was not good in his first NFL Season and I’ll roll the dice on him turning over the ball more to start his 2nd season on the road vs Washington.

Atlanta Falcons $10

My other pay down option at DST this week. Winston is no stranger to multiple turnover games and if I’m completely punting at DST, that’s the kind of QB & offense I’m looking to target to be on the positive side of variance.

Tournament Stack of Week

 

Lamar Jackson & Rashod Bateman

 

Stack Price: $49 of $200 Salary.

 

Projected ownership: 20.52%

 

One thing I learned by studying 2021 GPP’s is that a lot of the field will stay away from the game totals projected under 50 points. If the game goes higher than projected, you have a good chance of getting leverage on the field by targeting low owned players from these games. Furthermore, targeting team stacks from these kinds of games can still be highly effective as we saw multiple times last year like when the Bucs beat the Bears in a 38-3 blowout but Godwin and the DST combined for 48 points. From a game stacking perspective, you want no part of a 41 point game but the team stack was good enough to win the Milli Maker with 200,000 entries.

The Ravens are 7-point favorites and Lamar Jackson will be starting the year healthy and ready to prove he deserves that massive contract. I will attack this stack a few different ways, including a double stack with Andrews and also a bring back option of Elijah Moore who can produce in garbage time & has more chemistry with Flacco than with Wilson who is sidelined with an injury.

Top Leverage Plays

Derek Carr 4%

Insert Josh Mcdaniels and Carr’s college teammate Davante Adams.  This is the 2nd highest projected game on the slate and if it’s going to be a shootout, Carr will get his too. At 4% projected ownership, I want Carr exposure in stacks with Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.

Tom Brady 1.93%

One of the things I love about Yahoo is the night game being on the main slate. low owned Brady stacks took down the Milli Maker multiple times last year and I’m here for those stacks at low ownership.

Derrick Henry 11.35%

If Barkley is going to be 27% owned in Cash, I’m all about playing Henry in GPP’s as direct leverage off of Barkley in that game.

Rhiamondre Stevenson 2.8%

Belichick has nothing but positive things to say about Stevenson any chance he gets and with all the questions about Mac Jones without Josh Mcdaniels, I think they’ll look to run the ball early and often. I want a lot of exposure to Stevenson at 2.8% in tournaments.

Dameon Pierce 2%

I still can’t fathom how Dameon Pierce is projected to be this low owned after a strong preseason and very low pricing across all sites, including Yahoo where he’s $11. In a game where everyone is playing Taylor, I’ll be all about Pierce in GPP’s as direct leverage in that game.

AJ Brown 6%

New stud is in town, and they’ll want to feed him. Arthur Juan Brown the YAC monster is a guy I want some exposure to in Hurts’ tournament stacks.

Adam Thielen 5%

With Jefferson and Cook expected to soak up most of the ownership in the Minnesota/GB game this week, I want exposure to Thielen and Osborn as direct leverage plays.

Kadarius Toney 3%

Henry is a leverage play off of Barkley and so is Toney. Health has been the only issue with Toney and if he’s on the field, I want exposure to him in tournaments at low ownership.

Godwin/Gage 2.99%

Evans is 11% expected ownership right now and Gage is under 3%. If Godwin plays, you’ll get him at close to zero ownership as he’ll be a game time decision heading into the night game. Whatever way you decide to go with Brady stacks will come at low ownership on Yahoo.

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