We are only two days away from an actual NFL game. Where did the summer go? You might still have a season long draft to do. My longest running home league drafts tomorrow night. There is still plenty of best ball action to be had and we are ramping up for the week one DFS Slates. If you need some last minute advise Flex Shane and our old friend Alan Seslowsky have you covered with a great pod.
I am going keep plugging away on our Summer Stock Report series with the NFC West. If you’ve missed any of the previous entries, you can catch up here.
As always, we are using Underdog ADP when referenced. Don’t miss your last chance to get in their flagship Best Ball Mania 3 tournament. It is over 97% full. Sign up now with our promo code DFSARMY and get a deposit match of up to $100. That will get you 4 free shots at taking down the 2 million top prize.
The reigning Super Bowl champs kick off Thursday night against this year’s Super Bowl favorite, Buffalo Bills. There are still questions surrounding QB Matthew Stafford. ESPN’s Dan Graziano recently wrote that Stafford’s elbow could be an “an issue all season.” He is currently the QB12 with an ADP of 106.3. I’ve only really been drafting Stafford to complete stacks with Cooper Kupp, and this report doesn’t really change that for me.
Regression would seem almost inevitable for Kupp after one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. He posted video game type numbers with 145 catches for 1947 yards and 16 touchdowns. He then capped it off with a Super Bowl MVP. The only real debate this draft season with Kupp has been whether to take him or Justin Jefferson as the first WR off the board. I was favoring Kupp, but used the Stafford injury as a tie breaker to grab some Jefferson shares later.
It has been a messy preseason for Ram RBs. Both Cam Akers (ADP 59.3) and Darrell Henderson (ADP 114.2) have missed practice time with minor injuries, but are expected to ne ready for week one. This has the feel of a potentially frustrating committee. Rookie out of Notre Dame, Kyren Williams is an interesting last round dart. He had a strong camp, is known to excel in pass protection, and is one injury to the either of the fragile RBs a head of him from relevance.
San Francisco 49ers
Just when you think Jimmy G is out, they restructure his contract and pull him back in. This is a bit concerning for a man like me who is significantly overweight Trey Lance in best ball. Lance’s ADP of 74.4 still has him going a head of Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Dak Prescott. In a season long home league I really don’t see the reason to take Lance over these 4 QBs who are never going to get benched under any circumstance and have proven ceilings. In a large field best ball tournaments, it is fine to swing for the fences given the rushing upside the Lance provides, but the floor has been drastically lowered. If he struggles, I would not be shocked for Shanahan to turn the reigns back over to Garopollo.
The Niners have talented pass catchers, but you are paying full freight on Deebo (ADP 20.6) and Kittle (ADP 52.5). There is still room for profit on Brandon Aiyuk at his current price of 68.9, but he’s not the screaming value he was early in the draft season, when he could be had two rounds later. Rookie 3rd round pick Danny Gray had an impressive preseason. I like him as a last round dart throw on best ball teams with Lance. Think of him as discount MVS, a downfield burner, who can hit your optimal lineup 2 or 3 times a year just by catching bombs.
In the old days (like 4 years ago) Eli Mitchell would be a 2nd or 3rd round fantasy pick after rushing for 963 with 5 tuddies as a rookie. Instead, he can be had in the 6th round with an ADP of 67.9. Mitchell was bothered by a hamstring for much of the preseason, but looks ready to go for week one. If he stays healthy, he should have no problem returning value at this price. San Francisco cut Trey Sermon, and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price is running behind veteran grinder Jeff Wilson.
It is genuinely hard to believe that Geno Smith is the opening week starting quarterback for a NFL team in 2022. I could have believed it if you told me he was the back up, elevated due to injury. Nope, he’s actually the best option Seattle has. There is a very decent chance that Seahawks will have the lowest scoring offense in the league. All of that said, I don’t mind a couple of their guys for fantasy where the Geno/Lock discount is built into the price.
I’m not afraid to grab a couple shares of DK Metcalf at an ADP 58.9. This is an absolute beast we were happy to draft on the 2/3 turn last season. Many fantasy analyst have been quick to point out the DK actually scored more on a points per game basis last year with Geno under center than Russ. Although, this stat helps make my case, it is clearly taken from a very small sample size. I don’t love DK, but I do like him better than Mike Thomas and Adam Thielen who are going in the same range.
With rookie Ken Walker likely sidelined for a couple weeks due to a hernia surgery, Rashaad Penny is great candidate to get off to a fast start. We saw what he can do when healthy down the stretch of last season. With an 8th round ADP of 90.4, Penny pairs nicely with young back like Breece Hall, who might take a few weeks to hit his stride.
I really like Kyler Murry in the 6th round with an ADP of 60.9. This is smack in the middle of the RB dead zone. We’ve just mentioned some of the 6th round receivers that aren’t exactly inspiring. This is a great spot to take a running QB who has number at the position in his range of outcomes. He stacks nicely with his college teammate Hollywood Brown whose ADP sits at 41.5. I have not taken much Hopkins at his ADP 78.4. I can’t justify eating those 6 weeks, when I can get Drake London or Kadarius Toney in the same range.
It scares me a bit, because he is a really good player when healthy, but I have been mostly fading James Conner and his 3rd round ADP of 34.6. I have to believe the regression monster is coming for a good chunk of the 18 TDs he posted last season. It also sounds like they might try to work Eno Benjamin in more. He is an interesting late round flier with an ADP of 188.7.
The Cardinal I have the most shares of Trey McBride. The mother f’ing Mackey Award winner (shouts to Evan Silva) can be had in the last round. Zack Ertz, aside from being old, is dealing with a calf injury that may keep him out of the opener. If McBride gets the to start, he would be a steal at this price.
We will be back tomorrow to finish up this series with the NFC North. In meantime, take advantage of our best price of the year on VIP access. Fire up the Domination Station and start crafting those Showdown lineups for Thursday night.