NFL Summer Stock Report- AFC North

You know NFL season is right around the corner when the Geek is doing first look videos for the week one DFS slate. I can hardly wait another week for kickoff.

The biggest news of cut down day was Marlon Mack getting a surprise visit from the turk. If you’ve following DFS Army content, your bags should already be sufficiently packed with double digit round Dameon Pierce shares.  The Texan’s rookie now regularly goes in the 4th round.

I’ve still got 3 divisions left to break down, so I better get started. If you’ve missed any of the previous Summer Stock Reports, you can click here to catch up.

 

As always, we are using Underdog ADP when referenced. Time is running short to get in their flagship Best Ball Mania 3 tournament, which is over 87% full. Sign up now with our promo code DFSARMY and get a deposit match of up to $100. That will get you 4 free shots at taking down the 2 million dollar top prize.

Cleveland Browns

 

This should be a quick one. There is no team in the NFL I have less fantasy exposure to than the Brownies. We don’t need to rehash the Deshaun Watson saga, other than to say we finally know that his suspension will be 11 games. That means that with the bye week included, he won’t see the field until week 13.

I can’t see an argument for using a roster spot in a QB that is going to play only 2 of the 14 weeks of the regular season in most formats.

The Watson drafter would likely counter with “what if he is the nuts in one of the playoff weeks?” While that’s certainly possible, I don’t think it’s anywhere near likely enough of an outcome to play a roster spot short for the first 12 weeks.

I’m not drafting the perpetually banged up Amari Cooper with Jacoby Brissett at QB for the bulk of the season. If want to throw a super late dart at Donald Peoples-Jones or David Bell, I wouldn’t call you crazy, but I’m certainly not overweight.

I’ve been almost a full fade on Nick Chubb. He’s a great runner of the football, but I don’t make a habit of drafting RBs on bad offenses, who don’t catch passes in the 2nd round. The franchise proved last year, that even when Hunt was out, they still wouldn’t give Chubb the bell cow role. Now, D’Ernest Johnson and Jerome Ford are lingering as talented 3rd and 4th options.

The market must agree with me because Chubb finally has a 3rd round ADP of 26.7. I’m not opposed to getting a couple round 3 shares, just as a hedge, but I am still going to be way underweight.

The only Brown I am targeting is tight end David Njoku (ADP 151.8). The former Miami Hurricane profiled as an athletic freak. Cleveland made him a offseason priority with a massive contract, while letting Austin Hooper walk.

Adam Levitan points out that Njoku played 39-42 snaps with the starters in preseason, including 11 in the slot.

Tight Ends are known to have late breakouts in the NFL. I think this could be the year for David Njoku.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

The Bungles no more, Joe Burrow and company went on a surprise Super Bowl run in 2021 and made people a lot of fantasy money in the process. Burrow went too late on drafts because he was coming off an ACL. Chase went too late because some clowns thought he couldn’t catch an NFL football. Both ended up being the nuts in the all important weeks 16 and 17.

Burrow (ADP 74.7) is still relatively cheap, due to the depth of the QB position. There are no discounts this year on Chase who goes in there mid 1st at pick 5.7.

I am fine stacking Burrow with Chase or the 1A, Tee Higgins who has a fair ADP of 28.2.

I’ve already stated my distaste for drafting running back early who don’t catch passes. As a result, I’m not getting much Joe Mixon (ADP 13.5) on the 1/2 turn. Unlike Chubb, Mixon is actually a good receiver out of the backfield. It’s extremely odd that the coaches insist on using Samaje Perine on 3rd down and in the 2 minute drill. This stubborn strategy may have cost them the Super Bowl, as Mixon wasn’t on the field for the decisive carry.

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

The Ravens ran terribly bad with injuries in 2021. Look for them to have a big bounce back this season.  I am fine taking Mark Andrews in the late 2nd (ADP 21.6).  Isaiah Likely’s excellent preseason does not me any less likely (see what I did there) to draft Andrews.  It does discourage me from trying to throw darts at the various secondary Baltimore receivers such as Devin Duvernay, James Proche, Demarcus Robinson or Tylan Wallace.  Baltimore will feature more 2 TE sets.  I believe Likely’s emergence hurts these other WRs, not Andrews.

We’ve already seen Lamar Jackson produce a league winning season when he rushed 1206 yards and had 43 total TDs in 2019.  The former MVPs has bulked up in the offseason and at still only 25-years-old, should just be entering his prime.

With a late 4th round ADP of 47.1 Jackson stacks easily with Andrews or Bateman who goes in the 5th with an ADP of 54.2.   5th round Bateman one of my favorite picks to make on Underdog.  In DraftKings best ball contests he inexplicably has a 6th round ADP.  He’s the unquestioned, number one receiver on a good offense.  The Geek and Flex Shane perfectly layout the case for Rashad Bateman on their recent Flag Plants podcast.

The messy Baltimore backfield is mostly an avoid for me at this point.  J.K. Dobbins is an electric runner when healthy, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him in that state.  Dobbins recently fired back at a reporter, Adam Koffler, who posted this practice clip of him seemingly limping out of a drill.

We still don’t know if Dobbins is going to be ready for week one.  Actions speak louder than words this time of year and the Raven took action in the form of signing Kenyon Drake.  I can’t take Dobbin right now in the 6th round when he’s going in the same range as Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Darnell Mooney and Brandon Aiyuk. Perhaps, he comes on strong late in the season and proves to be a value, but I’ll let someone else take that risk at his cost.

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

It’s been a weird week for Najee Harris.  He ran well in his first preseason action, but then revealed that he had been battling a Lisfranc injury for a month.  This injury doesn’t really concern me.  If it was something serious, I doubt they would have played him in a meaningless preseason game.

The bull case for Harris is volume.  He led all running backs in snap share last season by a wide margin.  Najee had 84%, while next highest were Kamara and Montgomery with 75%. The bear case for Harris is that he isn’t particularly explosive and plays behind a bad offensive line.

I don’t get a ton of Najee Harris at his ADP of 12.1, mainly because I like Saquon and Swift, who go in the same range a little bit better.  I have no problem, though, taking Harris and the floor he provides, when he falls into the mid 2nd round.

The Steeler receivers are tough to handicap because we don’t really know who the quarterback is going to be, and we haven’t seen any of them play significant snaps with either Trubisky or Pickett.

Dionte Johnson is the first off the board, by a fairly wide margin with an ADP of 49.5.  This is likely a result of the numbers he produced last season while being peppered with underneath targets by a limp armed Big Ben.  We don’t know that he will hold this target edge over Chase Claypool or George Pickens with a new QB under center.

The rookie Pickens (ADP 100.3), after a hot preseason has actually passed Claypool (ADP 111.9).  I am splitting the baby and grabbing shares of both, depending on who falls to me.

As a last round pick in best ball drafts where I have a Steeler receiver, I have been taking some shares of Kenny Pickett as a 3rd QB.  Pickett has look pretty impressive in preseason action, I and don’t believe you draft a QB 20th overall to sit him behind Mitch Trubisky.  Pickett might not be the starter on day one, but he will be soon enough.  When trying to build a unique team in the massive lottery ticket contests on DraftKings and Underdog, I like having a 3rd QB who went undrafted in a significant percentage of drafts.  I am employing the same strategy with Malik Willis on teams where I have Trey Burks.

 

We are less than one week away from kickoff. Best of luck as you finish your best ball and season long drafts.  It’s nearing time to shift the focus to DFS.  We are offering our best deal of the year for VIP access at DFS Army.  Sign up now and get that Domination Station optimizer firing for week one!

I’ll see you back here next week to finish up the last two divisions.