MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Fanduel and DraftKings Friday September 2nd, 2022 MAIN SLATE

SEPTEMBER BASEBALL! We will have rosters expanding to 28 players with taxi squad players and minor league call-ups. There will be a lot we have to look after. Since this is an early look type article with my favorite pitching options on the slate I will continue to break them down for you all with stats and reasons I like them!

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

We at the DFS Army did just have member ‘palavecero’ nab a $10,000 winner the other night too! Taking down the MLB Squeeze Wednesday! Congrats brother and enjoy the Swag Bag!

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (14 Games)

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JP Sears @ BAL

Sears gets to face Baltimore after facing his former team in the Yankees in his last start. Baltimore usually isn’t a team right now that I want to target pitchers against, but they haven’t seen many lefties over the last couple of weeks. When they have, they haven’t been hitting very well against them and have a 28.6% strikeout rate. Now, over the last 30 days, they have been pretty good against lefties. He did start one game against Baltimore when he was on the Yankees and tossed a rather good game. Though he’s only thrown 6 innings against them he has not allowed a run either. I don’t mind taking some chances as he has been pretty solid for Oakland so far. GPP

Luis Castillo @ CLE

Castillo has been amazing all season and getting traded out West has not slowed down his production. In the month of August, he tossed 31.2 innings and had 39 K’s with just a 2.84 ERA. This matchup against Cleveland isn’t awful, but also isn’t the best. He did face them one time this year and tossed 6 innings with 10 K’s against them, allowing just 4 hits. JoRam does have some good success against him and so does Rosario, but other than that no one has seen him a ton. Cleveland comes into this game though, hitting just .207 with an ISO of .116 against RHP in the last 2 weeks.  ALL FORMATS

Sandy Alcantara @ ATL

Alcantara has been lights out of the Marlins this year and is really making a run at the NL Cy Young trophy. He’s a guy who throws a ton of innings and has no problem going deep into games. He tossed ANOTHER CG last time out which brings his total up to 4 CG on the season and has tossed 185.2 innings this year…which is 15 more innings then the second most. He’s as reliable as it gets. This is a tough matchup though with Atlanta, but in 2 starts against them he has allowed just 1 ER in 17 innings and has 21 K’s. I love his upside and love the chances he has for a QS. ALL FORMATS

Charlie Morton vs MIA

I don’t always love writing up both sides of a game, but Morton has the upisde to throw a good game here. He struggles at times, but other times he can be just lights out. Last time out he struggled though and last time he allowed more than 4 ER, he followed it up with a 12 K game in 6.2 innings against the Mets. Miami comes into this game with a 23.6% K rate to RHP in the last 2 weeks and are hitting just .195 with an ISO of .105 in that span. I do like Morton a little more for GPPs given his upside, but also his downside. GPP

Jordan Montgomery vs CHC

Monty has been absolutely lights out since being traded to the Cardinals. Yadi has really helped him along with the pitching staff here in St. Louis. In his 5 August starts, Montgomery tossed 30.2 innings with 28 K’s, allowing hitters to hit just .193 and had an ERA of 1.76. He struggled in his last start, allowing 5 ER in just 5 innings and that was his worst start since being traded. The Cubs have not been great against LHP in the last few weeks either, striking out 24.7% of the time and hitting only .226. The last time he faced the Cubs he tossed a CG 1-hitter, which was his first complete game of the season. Love his upside here though. LEAN GPP, but SP2 on DK.

Lance McCullers Jr. @ LAA

McCullers faces off against the Angels in his 4th start of the season. He was great in 2 of his 3 starts though and struggled against the mighty Braves. This matchup against the Angels is much easier though. If he’s able to get around Trout and Ohtani I think he can have another good outing here. He’s thrown 90 pitches in each of his last 2 starts, leading me to believe he doesn’t really have a pitch limit anymore. In his career against LAA, he hasn’t thrown awful against the Angels either and now that he’s healthy he adds another great arm to this Astros starting rotation. GPP

Yu Darvish @ LAD

Usually I don’t like using Darvish on the road because he has struggled much more on the road than he has at home this year. Both road starts against the Dodgers he did struggle, but this late into the season, with the playoffs approaching I do think that he turns it up a bit. He has struggled allowing runs of late though against not so good opponents (KC and WSH). Last time he faced LAD on the road he allowed only 2 ER, the Padres just couldn’t score behind him. I do think Darvish has upside though even in a tough matchup after the Dodgers just left New York and flying back across country for this one. GPP

Dustin May vs SDP

May is starting now, but he may still be on a little bit of a pitch count. He did toss 86 pitches in his last start though. Over the last couple of weeks, the Padres are striking out 21.8% to RHP, which isn’t a ton, but they are hitting just .209 with an ISO of .129. May has some electric stuff for the Dodgers and they will need him for the last stretch and the Playoffs with Buehler out for the rest of the season. GPP

Nick Pivetta vs TEX

Pivetta is a guy that has thrown the ball much better on the road this year than he has at home, but I have some interest in him here. The one time he faced the Rangers this year he tossed 7 innings and allowed just 3 hits. His strikeout numbers haven’t been the best of late, but the Rangers come into this game with a 24.7% strikeout rate against RHP. I like him as an upside GPP play against this Rangers offense if he can get passed the likes of Corey Seager. GPP

Kyle Gibson @ SFG

Gibson gets to pitch in a rather pitcher’s friendly ballpark here in the last game of the slate and faces the Giants who are struggling of late. In the last couple of weeks against RHP, the Giants have the 2nd highest strikeout percentage at 26.4% and are hitting under .200 with an ISO of .106. Though he’s struggled more on the road, I do like the ballpark factor here, pitching in San Fran. When he faced them last he only allowed 3 hits in 6 innings but did allow a HR which caused him to give up 2 earned runs. I do think he does have some uspide with how much the Giants are struggling at the plate right now. GPP

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Sandy Alcantara
2. Luis Castillo
3. Charlie Morton
4. Lance McCullers
5. Jordan Montgomery
6. Kyle Gibson
7. Dustin May
8. Yu Darvish
9. JP Sears
10. Nick Pivetta

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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

1. New York Mets
2. Boston Red Sox
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Houston Astros
5. Los Angeles Dodgers

DINGER OF THE DAY 

Pete Alonso

The Mets have a very intriguing matchup tonight against Josiah Gray. Gray has allowed 32 HR on the season this year so I’m going to go with a Mets players. Alonso has 5 HR against the Nationals this season, but only 11 hits. Gray allows more HR to LHB, but it’s hard to hit one out of rightfield for lefties here. Alonso has 24 of his 31 HR against RHP this season as well.

 

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