Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a few early games today, followed by a 12-game main slate. We have everything from gas cans at Coors to some studs facing other studs, so there’s plenty of ways to go tonight. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get an interesting mix of pitchers today, or at least we do on the main slate. Five pitchers top the 500+ KSCOREs mark, but most of them are facing teams with plenty of upside. That makes them interesting tournament options, but perhaps people won’t want to roster them for cash game lineups. On the other end, we have nine pitchers with SIERAs of 4.5 or worse, three of which are well over 5.5. Some of them will be obvious targets (like Davies at Coors), but some of them will most certainly fly under the radar. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with the Giants and Cubs, the first of our early games. Rodon and Smyly will get the start here, and even though it doesn’t look to be the most exciting game, the Giants should have the edge here. It looks like we’ll get some decent wind blowing out to left field, at least.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Davis/Estrada
GPP note – A pretty standard matchup, traditional splits are the way to go here with Smyly’s .170+ ISO allowed to righties over the past month or so.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Hoerner, Happ
GPP note – This is a tough matchup, so it’s hard to be in love with anybody here. Rodon does allow a little more power to lefties than he does to righties though, so you could always try your luck there.
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we have the Cardinals and Pirates, with Mikolas and Contreras at the helm. An 8.5 total, I’m not sure I’m feeling the over here, but some of the bats will at least have a shot at a decent day. If nothing else, we have a good hedging opportunity with an affordable pitcher.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar/Dickerson
GPP note – Contreras has held his own and is pitching well above his salary, though he is allowing modest power to lefties.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Cruz/Gamel, Newman
GPP note – Mikolas’ strikeout rate remains below average and he’s allowing a lot of contact and power to righties, so don’t be afraid to attack him from that side.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
The Mets and Marlins will round out the early games, with Peterson and Cabrera getting the start. Like the previous game, I’m not sure that this one will go off the rails either, but since there are only so many early games to go around, we’ll have to dig in and find where the magic might happen.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Escobar
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Like the previous game, Cabrera has held his own and might be able to navigate this lineup without getting blown up. He allows more power to righties, so that might be a good way to go here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Anderson
GPP note – There’s not a lot to love here, but the top of the order could be decent.
Main slate
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Nationals and Phillies. Corbin and Syndergaard will get the start here, both of which are interesting conversation pieces. Corbin looks to be getting over his gas can slump, while Syndergaard can’t seem to find traction.
Nationals 4 star plays – Garcia/Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Hernandez
GPP note – Syndergaard’s struggles continue, so attacking him here isn’t a bad idea. He’s allowing more power to lefties, but still plenty of contact to righties.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Hoskins/Realmuto, Schwarber
GPP note – Corbin has showed some signs of life recently, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge here if you want to go full throttle against him. Otherwise, righties have the power advantage.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Next up we have the Red Sox and Orioles, with Bello and Voth getting the start. We get an 8.5 total here, though neither starter is exactly a gas can, so I don’t know that this one will run away from the field. Like the early games, there should be some useful pieces here, but maybe less will be more.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Story
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Bogaerts/Martinez
GPP note – Voth hasn’t been terrible and I could see him going 3-5 innings here without allowing too much, so I’d be careful blindly stacking here just because he’s cheap.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman/Santander
GPP note – The same applies here, though Bello does allow a fair amount of xwOBA to lefties.
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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Rasmussen and the Rays will take on Montas and the Yankees next, and this one just feels like a lower-scoring affair. Both starters have been solid, the Yankees aren’t crushing righties, and the Rays seem to be cooling off just a little. We’ll see how it goes, though it’s unfortunate that some of our Coors pivots aren’t looking as spicy as I’d like.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Peralta, Diaz
GPP note – Montas can be tough be he’s allowed good power to lefties, so some contrarian pivots are in play here.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
GPP note – Rasmussen has been solid but does allow moderate power to righties, so if nothing else, Judge is in play as usual.
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
We’ll head down south for our next two games, the first between the Blue Jays and Rangers. Stripling and Dunning get the start here, and with them, an 8.0 total. While this one seems to be favored slightly towards the visitors, I think we’ll see them take it handily, given the matchup each pitcher faces here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette
GPP note – Dunning is a spicy target for righties, and there are loads of them here. There’s not a lot of strikeout upside here, so be sure to have your shares.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Seager/Lowe, Semien
GPP note – A tough matchup for this offense, Stripling does at least allow moderate power to lefties, so you can try your luck there.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Our next southern game will be between the Angels and Astros, who will start Lorenzen and McCullers. This one feels pretty similar to the previous game, though it’s the home team with the advantage here. If McCullers and the bullpen can navigate Ohtani and Trout, I don’t see the Angels keeping up at all.
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 3 star plays – Rengifo
GPP note – The usual stud duo is always in play, though McCullers isn’t typically one to go heavy against. Righties do have the statcast advantage here though.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Bregman
GPP note – Lorenzen was struggling in July and I suspect that’ll continue here (his last start was against these bats, where he gave up 3 home runs in 3 innings).
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Wentz and the Tigers taking on Lynch and my Royals. A moderate 8.5 total, I can see this one going the over, provided the offenses show up. They won’t have much resistance from one another’s pitching staff, so don’t be afraid to take some shots here with these lesser-loved bats.
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez/Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Reyes
GPP note – Lynch offers a low strikeout rate and solid statcast numbers to both sides of the plate, so Detroit stacks aren’t a terrible idea as a pivot.
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Melendez, Taylor
GPP note – We haven’t seen a ton of Wentz, but a lot of these KC bats are hitting lefties very well right now. Don’t be afraid to run some stacks here!
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ll continue our trip up north, with our next matchup between the Reds and Brewers. Another 8.5 total, these teams will have Lodolo and Alexander facing off. My gut says this one will see the under, even with one of the starters being priced in punt territory. We’ll see how it goes, but again, I’m a little disappointed in some of our Coors pivots.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – India
GPP note – Alexander has an average strikeout rate and allows moderate power to righties. It’s not a matchup to love, but there could be a few useful pieces here.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich/Adames
GPP note – Lodolo has done well keeping offenses in check lately, and I could see him doing it again here. I don’t know that these guys will be chalky enough to where fading them will help you leverage the field, but I’m not loving huge stacks.
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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have the Guardians and Twins, with Quantrill and Bundy to get the start. We drop down to a 7.5 total here, which does seem a little low to me. Granted, the Cleveland offense will have to come through for us to find the over, but with how Bundy has been, that might not be too much of an issue.
Guardians 5 star plays – Remirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – Bundy comes in with one of the lowest strikeout rates on the slate, and these guys don’t strikeout a whole lot either. Sounds like a good place to stack, especially with how low their implied total is.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cave
GPP note – Quantrill has been solid and I think the matching implied total is warranted here. I’d stick to small or medium-sized stacks only.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
We have our chalk-fest game up next, with the Diamondbacks and Rockies facing off at good ol’ Coors. Davies and Marquez get the start here, and Vegas is giving them an 11.0 total to start with. We’ll see how that fluctuates throughout the day, but on the bright side there is a possibility of some weather concerns. Maybe that’ll come into play and mess with the chalk.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Varsho
GPP note – I generally think hedging Marquez is good practice at Coors, since he does know how to pitch here and is good for the occasional big outing. It’s business as usual here.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/Rodgers, Grichuk
GPP note – It’s Davies at Coors, so I think you know what to do.
Late slates
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
We’ll switch over to our late games next, starting with the Dodgers and Padres. May and Clevinger will get the nod here, and this game will be a rematch from last week for both starters. Neither of them fared very well, but they may not even get a chance at redemption here, as the weather doesn’t look too favorable for a ballgame.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner
GPP note – Clevinger continues his struggles, giving up four homers in his last three starts with a low strikeout rate. It’s business as usual for these bats, too.
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Soto
Padres 3.5 star plays – Bell/Profar/Kim
GPP note – May will look to get some revenge after his poor outing against these guys last week, so don’t be afraid to hedge here since there’s a high ceiling on both sides of it.
Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have the White Sox and Athletics, with Giolito and Kaprielian on the hill. A 7.5 total, that’s mostly thanks to Giolito facing the A’s, so he’ll probably be a popular option today. I do think the White Sox are in a pretty favorable spot here – a bit more than what Vegas is eluding to.
White Sox 4 star plays – Sheets
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Jimenez/Abreu
GPP note – Kaprielian has a low strikeout rate and allows a ton of contact and power to righties, so this could be another place to grab some lower-owned stacks.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Murphy
GPP note – Not the best place to attack, though Giolito does allow decent power to righties.
Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Braves and Mariners. Morton and Ray will get the start here, and Vegas gives these two a 7.0 total. That seems pretty reasonable considering how well these two have been pitching, and if they bring their A-game, we could easily see this one go the under.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Riley
GPP note – Ray has been very tough and aside from the random home run he gives up, there’s not much of an angle of attack here. If you stack, consider hedging.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – France/Raleigh
GPP note – A tough matchup for these guys too, Morton is at least allowing good power to righties, so you could always try something with that edge.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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