Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get 10 games today, cut down the middle to give equal parts early and evening games. Unfortunately, Vegas isn’t too excited about most of the offenses today, because as we’ll see, we get a lot of mediocre (or worse) totals. On the flip side, there aren’t many places to go for higher totals, so digging through the lineups may help us find some hidden gems. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
The nice part of having a day full of lower-total games is that we get a lot of pitchers in seemingly decent spots, which may open up more options that we might think we have at first glance. Surely some of the studs will offer more upside, but perhaps some of the cheaper arms could do enough to land themselves close enough to the top of the group to out-value their more expensive counterparts? Either way you go, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with my Royals and the Tigers. Heasley and Rodriguez will get the start here, and with them, a 7.5 total. Unfortunately, low totals are the theme of the day today, so this game may be as unexciting as most of the others today. Hopefully Vegas is wrong and we get an interesting day, but we’ll see.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
GPP note – Not a terrific matchup, but maybe a little better than what Vegas is giving these bats. E-Rod is allowing some power to righties, so be sure to attack him from that side.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez/Greene
GPP note – Same idea as above, but it’s the lefties with the advantage here. I don’t know that I’d go crazy with either team, but some small/medium-sized stacks could be useful.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Giolito and the White Sox set to take on Varland and the Twins. Another 7.5 total, it’s interesting that the White Sox have such a low total here considering they’re not facing a potent starter. Perhaps Vegas is wrong about the Chicago offense, or maybe they think that Varland will be the must-have SP2 of the early games?
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Jimenez/Abreu, Vaughn/Sheets
GPP note – Varland allows a good chunk of power to both sides, so any of these bats are worth a look for some pop.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Correa/Gordon/Miranda
GPP note – While not a great spot, Giolito oes allow power to both sides (a bit more to righties), so a small or medium-sized contrarian stack can be used here.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Bausmann and the Orioles will take on Eovaldi and the Red Sox next, and we do get a nice 9.0 total for this game. Eovaldi will be making his return here, making an interesting hedge spot considering how volatile he can be. As for the Boston bats, they’ll certainly be popular, but for good reason.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Rutschman/Santander/Mountcastle/Henderson
GPP note – Eovaldi can be pretty good or really bad, so I’d recommend taking some big stacks here in case he implodes in his return.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Martinez
GPP note – Baumann has a low strikeout rate and probably won’t put up much resistance here, so chalky stacks are in play. Righties have the xwOBA advantage, so consider going with some of them.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Moving on, our next game features the Phillies and Cubs with Suarez and Assad getting the start. The Phillies have the advantage here on all fronts, but the Cubbies will at least offer some decent bats with less ownership. There aren’t many places to go on these small slates, so you may have to take bats against the decent pitching options (like Suarez).
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Hoskins/Castellanos
GPP note – Assad has traditional splits working against him, and allows a lot of power, so any lefties are in play here. The power righties are hitting well too though, so don’t forget about them.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Wisdom
GPP note – Suarez hasn’t been allowing much to either side, so going with one-offs or smaller stacks might be best here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Rays and Cleveland, with Springs and Quantrill on the hill. A 7.0 total this game sounds great for the starters, but not very exciting for the bats. We’re used to that by now, so like most of the other games, you’ll probably have to cherry pick your favorite bats.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 3.5 star plays – Paredes/Ramirez
GPP note – This isn’t a good spot, but Quantrill does allow modest power to lefties and xwOBA to righties, so you can get creative with your bats here.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Gonzalez
GPP note – Similar idea here, but Springs has allowed more power to lefties. Consider some LvL bats here as they shouldn’t see a ton of ownership.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ll switch over to the main slate games (if you’re playing on FanDuel at least – if you’re on DraftKings, keep waiting), starting with the Marlins and Brewers. Garrett and Lauer will get the start here, and like most of the early games, we have decent pitching on both sides that may very well keep the scores down for the first chunk of this game.
Marlins 4 star plays – Berti
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Rojas
GPP note – Though this isn’t the most exciting spot on the day, Lauer does allow some decent contact and power to righties, so a contrarian bat or two would be in play here.
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames/Yelich/McCutchen
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Taylor
GPP note – Same as above, though these bats are more exciting. Garret isn’t a complete pushover though, so I’d be careful going all in.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Next up we have the Athletics and Angels, with Irvin and Ohtani on the mound. Unsurprisingly, we get a 7.0 total here, and this one has a good chance to go under that. Perhaps the Angels can take advantage of the power Irvin allows, but I doubt the A’s will have much in store for Ohtani.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – none
GPP note – There’s not much I can recommend here.
Angels 4 star plays – Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Rengifo
GPP note – This is a good spot against Irvin, as he allows plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate. Feel free to attack him with some decent-sized stacks here.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Gray and the Rangers will take on Gonzales and the Mariners next, and with them, another 7.0 total. I do feel like Vegas is selling this one a little short, but like most games, it’s hard to get behind huge stacks on either side. On the other hand, if Vegas is correct, we have a couple of reasonably-priced pitching options here.
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays -Garcia
GPP note – Gonzales doesn’t get many strikeouts and has been allowing more hits and power, and these guys carry a low implied total. I’d have some exposure to the best bats here and hope they can carry this offense to the over.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
GPP note – It’s more of the same here, as this isn’t an overly exciting matchup. Gray has been tough on righties, but unfortunately those are about the only bats doing much here. If you go here, you may just have to go with them and hope Gray has some slip-ups.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
We have Heaney and the Dodgers taking on Manaea and the Padres in our next game, and while I don’t have any Vegas information for this one in the early hours of the morning, I can only assume it’ll line up with most of the other games today. That would at least make both pitchers interesting, even if they have to navigate potent lineups. Sounds like a great spot to hedge, to me.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner, Smith
GPP note – Manaea can hold his own, but doesn’t come in with much strikeout upside here. He’s also allowing plenty of power to righties, so I’m sure there will be some useful (albeit expensive) bats here, as usual.
Padres 4 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 3.5 star plays – Drury/Bell
GPP note – Heaney comes in with a strong strikeout rate, but he does allow some power in between them. Righties have the advantage, but he does allow some to lefties too, so don’t be afraid to sneak in a lefty here with any contrarian stacks you run.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up this short day with the Rockies and Giants, with Feltner and Rodon on the mound. Another 7.5 total would be the only fitting way to see this slate end, so we must embrace it like we have the rest of the day. However, the home team does have a decent total here, so it’ll be interesting to see if they are the chalk of the slate.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 3 star plays – Cron, Grichuk
GPP note – Yet another tough matchup on the day, a few of these bats can hit lefties for power, so you could always try them if you want to throw a dart somewhere.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson/Estrada/Yastrzemski
GPP note – Feltner has reverse splits working against him, so consider using some righties here since these bats might carry more ownership than usual due to so many teams having low totals on this slate.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.