Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/24:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Sandy Alcantara
- Jacob deGrom (obviously!)
- Framber Valdez
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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins (-235)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I think that Alcantara ends up winning people’s money. This feels like a great spot for him to remind people of how dominant he has been. I think there are a few MIA bats that could be worth a one-off but I am mainly looking at Lewin Diaz as a GPP dart play.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Wade Miley
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The second game of the write-up is another one that doesn’t interest me from an offensive standpoint. The difference here is that I don’t really have any interest in either pitcher. I think you could make a mini-stack of the PIT lineup and it could payoff.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rodolfo Castro, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-205) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10.5. I do really believe that SD explodes a bit in this match-up. They have a bunch of positive BvP history against Kuhl and it is Coors. I actually think that Darvish could be a sneaky option even with the game being in Colorado.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
New York Mets (-385) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We are going to be all about the Mets here. They beat up an LHP on Friday night and now they get a young one, with deGrom on the mound. There’s a good chance that they end up in my top 5 overall stacks on the day with deGrom ending up as the top, obviously, pitcher.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really want to be on Kershaw and I feel like we might have to be as Pujols just hit #700 as I am writing this article. That probably means we see a couple of the STL regulars sit because of celebrating. I know the Dodgers have cooled down and they do have a tougher match-up but they can wake up at any time.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .087 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-170)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am going to go out on a limb and call numbers 61 and 62 for Judge in this game. He has great BvP in his favor and he’s not the only one on the Yankees. German could be an electric arm or he could have some struggles against the top of the BOS lineup.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I have an interest in both pitchers but I think that both teams are very viable for mini-stacks in this one. Kelly has been pretty good when he doesn’t have to face the Dodgers while Cobb continues to surprise. Walker’s BvP makes him a really interesting option.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lamont Wade, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Alek Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-220)@ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Adames hit an HR against Ashcraft in each of the two starts that he made against MIL this season. I would expect Burnes to come out and be dominant against the weak CIN lineup. Ashcraft is making his return from the IL but I worry about his struggles against RHBs in this one.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-178) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I wish J-Rod didn’t have to go on the IL because a series between him and Witt Jr would have been fun to see as the season winds down. Gilbert is in a pretty solid spot but a few of the KC bats have picked up some heat over the last week. France has hit Bubic really well in previous meetings.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-115)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I am on the opposite side of this match-up when it comes to Vegas. When I look at the match-up, I see that TOR is swinging it better than TB is, I would consider Manoah to be a better pitcher than Rasmussen, and the overall TOR lineup is more talented than the TB lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-120) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to believe we get some offense in this match-up but the game isn’t one that really intrigues or excites me. There are a couple of bats that have been swinging it well or have hit the opposing pitcher well. I think I would roll with guys as one-offs from this one.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-135) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I have been on the Wright train a lot recently but I am going to jump off and play the bats against him. I really like the over in this game as I think ATL gets to Falter a bit and a few of the PHI bats have warmed up as they battle for their wild card spot.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins (-135)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love Joe Ryan at home but I do have some worries about the way a couple of RHBs are swinging it for the Angels. Ward has caught fire again and we know how dangerous that Mike Trout guy can be. The Minnesota lineup has really fallen off hard, so Detmers is going to be really interesting.
LAA 5-star plays: Taylor Ward
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-190) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Orioles – Mike Baumann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I want to be on the HOU lineup but only a few guys are interesting to me. Alvarez is always going to be on my Dinger list. Valdez is a beast and just keeps racking up quality starts, which means our pitcher list on FD should always contain him. Adley is getting it done for BAL but the rest of the lineup has hit a bit of a wall as they chase a wild card spot.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
White Sox – Davis Martin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I would love to take a random shot and pick Sheets as my Dinger of the Day but our race for the Dinger champ is getting down to the nitty-gritty. I think that Martin is a low-tier, interesting option as a GPP arm today. We might get a watered-down CWS lineup at some point as they fade in the postseason race.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Gavin Sheets
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Houston Astros
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees (61 AND 62!)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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