MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today September 23rd | Fanduel Draftkings

Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a few early games today, followed by a 13-game main slate. With less than two weeks to go in the regular season, we have a few tight races for the wildcard standings, so be sure to consider that in your research today.  There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!

A look at pitchers

 

We get our usual wide range of pitching options today, complete with some studs facing weaker offenses (like Rodon) and some facing stronger ones (like Nola). We also get a Coors game with a decent total, so you know they’ll be popular, but there are some good places to go outside of Denver that could quickly rival their fantasy production. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.


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Early games

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

We’ll kick things off with the first of the early games, starting with the Cubs and Pirates. Assad and Wilson get the start here, with an 8.0 total to go with them. Neither team has anything to play for, but hey, maybe they’ll beat up on each other for fun?

Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ
GPP note – A decent spot overall, Wilson allows power to both sides (much more to lefties), so they’ll have a decent chance to do something here, even if they no longer have any playoff hopes.

Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays
– Cruz
GPP note
– A similar spot for these bats, though Assad doesn’t allow much power to righties. Going with traditional LvR splits here is probably the way to go.


Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Next up we have the Brewers and Reds, with Lauer and Minor to get the start. The Brewers look to have the advantage here, and seeing as they need every win they can get, I suspect Lauer and the Brew Crew will show up and handle business.

Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames/McCutchen, Yelich
GPP note – Another traditional spot, Minor allows plenty of contact and power to righties but not a whole lot to lefties. His low strikeout rate makes this an enticing spot for either hand, though.

Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays
– Farmer/India
GPP note
– Same as above, but Lauer does carry a little bit higher strikeout rate than the previous three pitchers. However, more of these bats are hitting for power for their matchup, so there’s still upside here.


Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

The last of the early games features the Nationals and Marlins, with Gray and Garrett on the mound. This game feels similar to the first one, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few home runs given up (more than likely by Gray). It’s a small early slate, but it could be fun!

Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses/Thomas
GPP note – Garrett tends to give up homers every few games, but the xwOBA given up to righties is certainly there, so I don’t think we necessarily have to skip over these bats with the thought that he’ll come out unscathed here.

Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays
– Cooper/Bleday
GPP note
– Gray allows plenty of power to both sides (13 straight games with at least one home run allowed, 23 total in that span – is that an MLB record? I need to research that), so you can grab some bats here since somebody will probably put one over the fence.


Main slate

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with the Braves and Phillies. Odorizzi and Nola get the start here, and with them, a 7.5 total. There’s a lot to like here for a 7.5 total, as both offenses and both starters have plenty of upside in them. It’ll just depend on who gets the upper hand on who in this matchup, but I wouldn’t shy away just because both matchups are tough.

Braves 4 star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Harris/Riley
GPP note – It’s not a good matchup against Nola, but he does allow moderate power to righties, so you could try your luck there.

Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays
– Schwarber/Realmuto, Maton
GPP note
– Odorizzi is allowing a fair amount of power to both sides of the plate, so any power bat is in play here.


Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Next up we get a good old rivalry game between the Red Sox and Yankees. They’ll start Hill and Cole, and Vegas has given them an 8.0 total to start with. They like the Yankees to win, but there’s something about the Red Sox against strong pitching when they face their rivals – they like to spoil the fun, so like the previous game, don’t shy away just because there are tough matchups here.

Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Devers/Bogaerts, Martinez
GPP note – A rough spot here as well, both sides offer upside so hedging is always an option. Otherwise, Cole does allow some power, so these bats are far from off limits.

Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays
– Donaldson/Stanton
GPP note
– Hill is allowing less power than Cole, so it might be better to go with smaller groupings here instead of full stacks. He does allow more wOBA/ISO to lefties, for what it’s worth.


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Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Urquidy and the Astros will face Kremer and the Orioles next, and with them, a 7.5 total. That does feel a little low at first glance, but I think both pitchers will be able to get through a good chunk of innings without giving up too much. Perhaps the bullpens will blow it in the end?

Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve
GPP note – Kremer isn’t as exciting of a target as his salary would indicate, so be careful blindly stacking here.

Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays
– Rutschman/Santander/Mullins/Mountcastle
GPP note
– Urquidy allows some power to both sides (more to lefties), so semi-contrarian bats are squarely in play here.


Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

We’ll head down south for our next two games, the first between the Blue Jays and Rays. White and Springs will get the start here, and this could be another game where the starters hold down the other team for a chunk of innings. These games aren’t looking too great for Coors pivots, are they?

Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Bichette
GPP note – Springs is not a great target, but he does actually allow some power to lefties. If we get any that start here, consider throwing them out as a dart.

Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays
– Arozarena/Franco
GPP note
– White allows moderate power to lefties and above-average wOBA to righties, so bats on both sides of the plate are in play here.


Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers

Morris and the Guardians will take on Gray and the Rangers next, and we get another 7.5 total here. This game looks to follow the same script as the previous two games, which while that’s not too great sounding for our offenses, perhaps one or two of these six pitchers will be important for us today?

Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Gray has looked decent in his return, though he’s allowing some xwOBA to lefties.

Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays
– Seager, Semien/Lowe/Garcia
GPP note
– Morris allows good contact to both sides (and power to lefties), while several of these bats are hitting righties for power. This could be a good place to grab some extra shares since they have a low implied total.


Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

We get yet another 7.5 total next, this time between the Tigers and White Sox. Rodriguez and Giolito will get the start here, and this one looks like easy pickings for the home team. Perhaps this being a divisional game will make it a little more interesting than what Vegas is hinting at.

Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – There’s not much to love here, but Giolito does allow some power to righties.

White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays
– Abreu/Jimenez, Andrus/Moncada/Pollock/Vaughn
GPP note
– Rodriguez allows moderate power and plenty of xwOBA to both sides. Combined with his lower-than-average strikeout rate, this makes for a decent spot to attack.


San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

We get our chalky Coors game next, this time between the Padres and Rockies. Manaea and Feltner will get the start here, and Vegas is starting them with an 11.5 total. These two are allowing more than enough to meet that sort of demand, so we’ll see if the offenses show up or upset the slate with a dud. Be sure you have some pivots in mind in case they do!

Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Drury/Bell
GPP note – Feltner is allowing reverse splits, so grabbing some righties could help mitigate some of the chalk.

Rockies 5 star plays – Cron
Rockies 4 star plays
– Daza/Grichuk, Blackmon/McMahon
GPP note
– Manaea is allowing much more power to righties, so unfortunately, the chalky traditional splits are the way to go here. Maybe try the bottom of the order?


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Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals

Next up we have Gonzales and the Mariners taking on Singer and my Royals. The Mariners will look to keep their lead over the Orioles, but I think that Singer and the KC bats have a decent chance to upset them. We have won three in a row, after all!

Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez, Raleigh/Haniger/Santana
GPP note – Singer isn’t the best target on the day, but some of these bats are hitting righties for some power, so you could always take some medium-sized stacks here.

Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays
– Perez/Witt, Melendez
GPP note
– These bats have some upside against lefties, and Gonzales allows moderate power to both sides. There’s not a ton of strikeout potential here either, so some stacking is in play (but maybe not full blown ones).


Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

Ohtani and the Angels will take on Varland and the Twins in our next game. The good news is that we have Ohtani pitching, as he’s always fun to watch. The bad news is that we have some weather concerns, so hopefully a storm won’t be the only thing we’re watching here tonight.

Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Rengifo/Thaiss
GPP note – Watching the weather is probably the most important thing here, but the usual bats are in play as long as they get the green light.

Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays
– Correa
GPP note
– Picking on Ohtani isn’t exactly fun, but he does allow a little bit of power to lefties from time to time.


Late games

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

We’ll head on over to the late games next, starting with the Giants and Diamondbacks. Rodon and Henry will get the start here, and with them, another 7.5 total. That’s perfectly reasonable considering we have Rodon and a soft San Francisco taking on Arizona. I think we’ll go the under here, which will be great for our starters (why yes, maybe both of them).

Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Estrada/Flores
GPP note – These bats have been a bit weak against lefties, but Henry is allowing plenty to both sides of the plate and comes in with a low strikeout rate. This could be a nice spot for them to pounce.

Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays
– Walker
GPP note
– This is a tough spot to sell, so I won’t try to.


New York Mets at Oakland Athletics

Next up we have Bassitt and the Mets taking on Irvin and the Athletics. We have our lowest total of the day here (this early in the morning, at least), a paltry 7.0. I think the only chance we go over is if the Mets just go bonkers, which could certainly happen considering their matchup.

Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso/Escobar
GPP note – Irvin allows plenty of contact and power to both sides, and a lot of these bats are hitting lefties well. They could quickly surpass their low 4.x total, so have some shares.

Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays
– Brown
GPP note
– Not a great spot here, but Bassitt allows moderate power to lefties every so often. I think a one-off or mini-stack would be most useful here.


St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Cardinals and Dodgers. An 8.5 total, Quintana and Heaney get the start here, and this game just sounds like fun. There are all sorts of high-dollar studs to choose from, and even a couple of pitchers if one is bold enough.

Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Edman/Pujols
GPP note – Heaney comes in with a high strikeout rate, but has also been allowing plenty of contact and homers in between. This is a great hedge spot.

Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays
– Turner/Turner
GPP note
– Quintana hasn’t allowed much power lately (no homers in his last 8 starts), but there’s not much strikeout upside here and these Bats have been smashing lefties. I think his streak ends here, so these bats are in play as usual.



And that’s going to do it for this one.  Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.  Best of luck today!

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