Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/19:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kyle Wright
- Edward Cabrera
- Logan Gilbert
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-365)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Cory Abbott
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I like the Braves to put up some runs in this one and Vegas happens to agree with me. Abbott has pitched above his head while Wright is going to end up one of my favorite SPs on this slate. I think he goes overlooked a bit with all the “names” on the mound.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Michael Harris II
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (-140)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Wade Miley
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am all about Cabrera as a GPP arm today. He has big time K ability and electric stuff. We generally have to calm our expectations with young pitchers because they have more volatility than vets. This might shock you but I happen to be interested in a MIA mini-stack tonight as I think they have a little bit of success against Miley.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jordan Groshans
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-278)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Dodgers have absolutely lit up Kelly in their meetings and we know that the Dodgers offense is about as elite as it gets in baseball these days. Kershaw has given up just 3 runs in 3 starts since his IL return. There is so much to like in the BvP department for this game, especially the LAD side of things. Walker has 4 HRs against Kershaw in their meetings.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Trea Turner, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers (-120)
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. At this point in the season, we rarely get true Ace vs Ace match-ups on the mound but we get one tonight. Scherzer is coming off of the IL so that takes a little of the excitement away but I look forward to watching this battle. The overall MIL lineup comes into this one in better form but I like the Mets slightly more in the game.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-125) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. What in the hell are we supposed to do about this one? We get a Coors Field game with a total of 11.5 but it’s between two teams that I have combined for a .152 ISO over the last week (that’s not good). Neither SP is all that dangerous but maybe we need to look at the pitchers in a Coors game? I feel so dirty typing that up but it’s true, unfortunately.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .053 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yonathan Daza, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
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Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays (-120)
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. While we get a low totaled game with a couple of intriguing pitchers, it’s impossible to ignore how scorching hot that Yordan Alvarez has been. Right now, he sits at or near the top of my Dinger of the Day list. The Astros have 14 HRs over their last 7 games, so that’s going to be something that we consider for our GPP builds.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles (-205)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love the Orioles side but it’s tough to decide where to go. A decent chunk of the RHBs have gone through some struggles of late but a couple of guys have hit Alexander in a prior match-up. Baez is hot at the plate but he’s very much a boom or bust type of play.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Robinson Chirinos, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love me some Gilbert but the Angels have shown us some power lately. I wouldn’t be shocked if Trout hits yet another HR but the Angels strike out 8-10 times. The Mariners need Julio back in the lineup as a few of their other bats have struggled of late while Suarez was rolling but he went onto the IL.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Sam Haggerty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians (-115)
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Twins’ offense comes in with a bit more thump than the Guardians does right now. I know it’s going to come across as being a homer but I think the Twins’ offense does some damage today. It’s been a rough series but their backs are against the wall. Gray has to continue being their best SP and they need him to throw another gem.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa, Matt Wallner
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yordan Alvarez, Houston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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