Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a nice big 14-game slate tonight, and even an early straggler if you want to get your showdown fix. So many games mean there are plenty of ways to go, so let’s dive in and see what we have to work with!
A look at pitchers
Big slates also mean we have a lot of pitching options, and there’s a wide range of ones to choose from. Even though we get 28 starters, only three of them offer KSCOREs above 500. One of them is Verlander, who will of course be an obvious option, so finding at least one cash game pitcher will be easy. For tournaments we have a healthy selection of 450+ KSCORE arms, but they aren’t all facing offenses as soft as Oakland’s. It might be hard to stomach rostering some of them, but they could certainly pay off. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with the lone early game between the Rockies and Cubs. Marquez and Stroman will get the start here, and both pitchers come into this one with a similar characteristic; they’re volatile. That should make the early showdown interesting, or if you don’t feel like messing around with them, there are a lot of games to choose from later.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon
GPP note – While not a super matchup, Stroman has had some issues lately, so there’s a chance of these guys going off. The righties get the power advantage here, so be sure grab some of them.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Happ, Hoerner
GPP note – Marquez can be very hit-or-miss too, and he’s allowing a lot more to lefties than he is to righties. However, some of the righties here are hitting RHPs pretty well, so be sure to make use of them, too.
Main slate
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Marlins and Nationals. Luzardo and Gray get the start here, and while it doesn’t seem like the most exciting game, I think there will be a gem or two here. Probably not for cash games, but maybe for tournaments.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Cooper
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting righties all that well, though Gray is allowing a ton to both sides of the plate. This could be a spot for them to pounce, so if you want some funky stacks, this is an option.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses
GPP note – Luzardo has been tough for the most part but has allowed some power to lefties, so you could always try to run a lefty or two against him.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have Lyles and the Orioles taking on Merryweather and the Blue Jays. Though the Blue Jays will have the advantage here, I don’t think the Orioles will go without a fight, so it might be an interesting one for fantasy purposes.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutshman/Santander, Mountcastle
GPP note – A bit of an unknown matchup, though Merryweather has allowed power to lefties in his appearances. These guys are all hitting righties for at least some decent power, so feel free to run a few of them.
Blue Jays 5 star plays –
Blue Jays 4 star plays –
GPP note – Lyles has allowed plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate and comes in with minimal strikeout upside. This will be a solid place to go, but won’t be sneaky, so try to get creative with your Toronto lineups.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Giolito and the White Sox will take on Manning and the Tigers next, and we get a 7.5 total for this one. Sadly I think that’s about as exciting as this one will likely play out, which is unfortunate because I like it when budget bats are in a hot spot. Perhaps there will be some later?
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Jimenez
GPP note – These guys had a good game against Manning the last time they met, so this could be a good spot to go in the event that they can one-up themselves.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene/Baez
GPP note – Though not a great matchup, Giolito has allowed some power to righties, so you could always run a contrarian bat or two against him.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
Another divisional game, we have the Twins and Guardians facing off next. They will start Sanchez and McKenzie, and this feels like another game where we’ll have some random gems sprinkled about. I don’t know that big stacks will pay off, but cherry picking a few bats (and maybe a starter) could be handy.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Correa
GPP note – Not the best matchup here, but McKenzie does allow some power to lefties on occasion.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gonzalez
GPP note – Sanchez hasn’t allowed much power since his return last month, though he is allowing a lot of xwOBA to lefties. Don’t be afraid to take a bat or two against him here in case they’re able to get ahold of one.
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Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
We’ll head up north next as Heasley and my Royals take on Wacha and the Red Sox. A 9.5 total, most of the action will likely come from the home team, as this isn’t a very good spot for KC. But hey, at least the Chiefs won!
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – For the most part, Wacha has been tough, but he does allow the occasional power to lefties.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Martinez, Story
GPP note – This is a great spot for the Red Sox, though unfortunately they won’t be the least bit sneaky. Try to be creative with these bats to be a little less chalky.
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Keller and the Pirates will take on Walker and the Mets next, this one with a 7.5 total. My gut tells me we’ll see the under here, as both pitchers can hold their own and could navigate through 5-6 innings without giving up a whole lot. Keller will have the tougher assignment, but I just have a feeling that he’ll be up for the challenge.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Cruz
GPP note – Though Walker has the advantage here, he has allowed some power to lefties. I wouldn’t take full contrarian stacks here, but a few stringers could be useful.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Escobar
GPP note – Keller has held his own lately and has only given up four homers since mid-July, so perhaps big stacks won’t be the answer here.
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll head south for our next few games, the first between the Rangers and Rays. Perez and Kluber will get the start here, and with them, we drop down to a 7.0 total. Though that does seem fair, I actually like the home team to hit their over, and if things go right, perhaps even the game total. We’ll see!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe, Seager/Semien
GPP note – Overall this isn’t a very good matchup, though Kluber has allowed moderate power to both sides of the plate. A few contrarian bats are in play here, but I don’t know about full stacks.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena/Diaz
Rays 3.5 star plays – Paredes, Margot
GPP note – Perez is pricey and the Rays’ implied total isn’t huge, but I kind of like them here for a contrarian stack. If they go off, you (probably) heard it here first!
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have Suarez and the Phillies taking on Fried and the Braves. Vegas gives us another 7.5 total here, and once again, I’m feeling the under. The home team has the advantage, and I think they’ll walk away with it, but this looks like another game where a few select batters and/or pitchers will prevail over large stacks.
Phillies 4 star plays – Realmuto
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins/Schwarber
GPP note – Another not-so-great matchup on the day, though Fried does allow some power to righties and there are enough big names here to warrant some exposure to.
Braves 5 star plays – Riley
Braves 4 star plays – Swanson, Harris/Olson
GPP note – Suarez retains a decently high price tag but has struggled lately. These bats are also hitting lefties well, so this could be a nice place to go to.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Martinez and the Athletics will take on Verlander and the Astros next, and well, I don’t think much needs to be said here. We have dart throw contrarian plays on one side and expensive chalk on the other, so pick your poison.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Yeah, no.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Tucker/Mancini
GPP note – While I could see Martinez performing a little better than expected, these guys will probably still get theirs. However, if you want to be bold, you could always fade them for leverage in hopes that Martinez does just enough to make it a boring game for fantasy purposes. Or, since he allows more wOBA to righties, you could go that route to leverage the lefties. Or, another option, eat the chalk and go crazy.
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New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers
Our next game features Montas and the Yankees taking on Houser and the Brewers, complete with a modest 8.0 total. The cherry-picking theme continues here, as I don’t see either team absolutely running away from the other one here. I do think we’ll get a home or two (or three), so be sure to make a stop here with your player pool today.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton, Torres
GPP note – Houser seems to give up homers in spurts, so you’ll want to give Judge some company since he’ll probably hit one. Their implied total is a little low, so perhaps their ownership will be, too.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames/Renfroe/Tellez
GPP note – While not a great matchup, there are some bats that profile well here, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with these guys. Lefties have the power advantage, but the xwOBA is equal to both sides.
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Our final central/midwestern game, Espinal and the Reds will take on Flaherty and the Cardinals. Vegas gives these competing red teams an 8.5 total, and that may all depend on which Flaherty shows up. Will the visitors take advantage of his struggles, or will the Cardinals run away with it like Vegas is predicting?
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Fraley/India
GPP note – It seems that Flaherty is still trying to get his feet under him, so you could always attack him here. Another option is to hedge, as we know the kind of upside he has when he’s on his game.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Pujols, O’Neill/Nootbaar
GPP note – Another chalky spot, these guys are tearing up righties, so it’s an easy call to want to play them. Be sure to grab some bats down low to help ease the ownership woes.
Late games
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our next few games, the first between the Mariners and Angels. An 8.0 total, the Mariners look to be in a nice spot here on all fronts. I don’t know if Trout and Ohtani can carry the Angels all by themselves, so perhaps some of the less-desirable bats will show up and provide some fantasy goodness at a discount?
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Suarez/France/Raleigh
GPP note – A solid spot for the Mariners, their implied total isn’t through the roof, so perhaps they won’t be overly chalky. Lorenzen is allowing about equal power to both sides of the plate, and it’s a nice chunk to both sides.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
GPP note – This isn’t a good spot for these bats, but the usual studs are always worth a look. Outside of them, it’s hard to recommend much here.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Snell and the Padres set to take on Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks. An 8.5 total, this looks like another game where the visitors will have the upper hand. I don’t think that’s much of a surprise to anyone, but hey, maybe Bumgarner will rewind time and show up to make this one more competitive than it should be.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado/Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bell, Drury/Cronenworth
GPP note – A nice spot for these guys, their implied total is south of that magical 5.0 mark (for now), so hopefully they won’t be the chalk of the night. Consider going here for some late-night fireworks. Righties have the slight advantage, but both sides of the plate are in a great spot here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – McCarthy/Varsho
GPP note – Another bad spot on the day, I can’t recommend very much here outside of the two above who are making good contact with lefties.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Dodgers and Giants. May and Webb will get the start here, and with them, a 7.5 total. The Dodgers certainly have the advantage with the bats, but if May and Webb both show up and do what they’ve done their last few starts, we could see an upset here. If you haven’t hedged anywhere else today, consider doing ithere.
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Turner/Turner
GPP note – I don’t think these guys profile as well as their expensive price tags would suggest, but others might see that too. Their implied total isn’t that great, so it’s always an option to pay up to be contrarian.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson/Yastrzemski, Bart
GPP note – May has shown some struggles in his return, so don’t be afraid to send some bats after him here. Righties are getting a little more power out of him than lefties are, for what it’s worth.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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