Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/10:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Lance Lynn
- Kevin Gausman
- Jose Urquidy
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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-250)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. The Phillies are in an excellent spot against Fedde. They have a bunch of very positive BvP in their favor and Harper will find himself at the top of my list. Suarez should be one of our favorite arms on the day but he always frustrates me because of his lack of control.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
New York Mets (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Carrasco wasn’t very sharp last time out but he’s going up against an extremely weak MIA lineup in this one. Lopez has had a very up-and-down season and while I like him as an under-the-radar option, I do think the Mets get to him for a few runs.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .088 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-115) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. With the total so low, I have to assume we are looking at cooler temps and/or wind blowing in at Wrigley today. Webb should make our list of very viable pitchers but we shouldn’t ignore Stroman’s potential upside. I might take a one-off from the SF side but that’s about it for bats.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Rays – Corey Kluber
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am looking at a mini-stack from each side on the offensive end while having low-mid tier interest in the SPs. Both guys are capable of putting up the type of performances we need in GPPs but they also can allow baserunners while not racking up Ks at times.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Miguel Andujar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I have a hard time avoiding LAD bats even against a guy like Snell. The way that the Dodgers are swinging it, I could see them hitting 3-4 HRs tonight. Urias has continued to fly under the radar, despite continually putting up impressive numbers.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .296 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-210) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Edman has been great for the Cards while the main guys worked through a mini-rough stretch. I want to see Flaherty return to the potential Cy Young arm he was just a few seasons ago. Cruz is swinging it well for PIT and he offers a ton of upside.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rockies – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11.5. Coors field didn’t disappoint us on Friday and the pitching match-up for Saturday makes me think that we won’t be disappointed in today’s action. I really should choose my Dinger call from this game but that feels like shooting fish in a barrel at this point.
ARI 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-225)
Pitchers:
Reds – Chase Anderson
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Brewers are really strong favorites despite coming in a bit colder offensively than the Reds. I am going to keep hopping on the Friedl-Fraley combo while they keep hitting HRs. Traditionally, we have targeted Chase Anderson with RHBs and MIL has a couple of them who could do damage.
CIN 5-star plays: TJ Friedl
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Aristides Aquino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last week.
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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-115)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Royals – Jonathan Heasley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really have no idea what to do between these two teams. I don’t really like either pitcher, though Manning is capable of being serviceable. We can probably get away with a mini-stack from either side but they’d be stacks that I don’t want to get over exposed to.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael A Taylor, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-135)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love this pitching match-up AND I love the idea of using a one-off on each side. Trout just keeps hitting HRs since his return. Altuve is swinging it well and has had success against Ohtani.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-205) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Once again, this feels like a spot where TOR dominates. How many times have we had that this season? There is no batter in baseball that is hotter than Bo Bichette right now. I want to believe that Vlad will wake up and join the hot Bichette to form a great mini-stack.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (-115)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really think that this game goes over the total. I will be stacking both sides as I could see there being 4-5 HRs with a couple of guys putting up multi-RBI performances. We don’t need to consider either SP in my opinion.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-135) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Part of me wants to stack against Kirby because the Braves are so dangerous at the plate. He has struggled with RHBs at the MLB level. Fried is really freaking good and I think the Mariners struggle against him (which is obvious given their team total).
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-190) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
A’s – Adrian Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Brown has been putting up some power performances of late and he has a couple of HRs in his career against Lynn. The White Sox bats have started to turn it on of late and they should be one of the top stacks during the day action.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-125) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Twins – Chris Archer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I could see a handful of different outcomes in this one. McKenzie offers us a TON of K upside for GPP builds and I will definitely end up with a decent share. Correa has been hot at the plate and he needs to continue it in order for MIN to stay in the race.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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