Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Sep 5, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Jose Suarez (54) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Jose Suarez O 20.5fpt
LAA @ MIN
The Twins have been putting out some weak lineups. They are dealing with multiple injuries to end the year. Suarez is normally set at around 24.5 even in tougher matchups. This is simply too low. In the past month, Minnesota is striking out 27.9% against LHPs, the 4th highest rate in the league. They have an 89 wRC+ which ranks 24th. Luis Arraez does not strike out but he has significant splits and will be neutralized against the lefty Suarez. Minnesota will send Dylan Bundy to the mound. The Angels should be able to score some runs off of him. This game is a pick ’em. Suarez has a chance for a quality start or/and the win. A fair estimate would be 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks which would be 22 fpt. I think he will be 5Ks by game time but just projecting him for the lower end without even needing the QS or W would put him over this 20.5 line.
Nestor Cortes U 30.5fpt
NYY vs BOS
One of the best rivalries in sports: the Yankees against the Red Sox. This will be Cortes’s fourth start since returning from injury. He should be able to handle a full workload now but there were games before he got hurt where he would be pulled in the 5th or 6th inning with a sub-90 pitch count. It could depend on when he faces the opposing lineup a third time. Cortes is currently set at 2.5 ER and 5.5K. A line of 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6K would give him a score of 28fpt. This is over-projecting his Ks. The Red Sox do have a 26.1% K rate against LHPs in the past month but do own a 122 wRC+. Cortes only is +165 to record the win. This line is just too high even when we give him the over and under on his current earned run and strikeout lines.
Mike Trout O 7.5fpt
LAA @ MIN
It was not too long ago when Trout reportedly had a rare back condition that had everyone worried. Since returning, he looks just like his old self. Trout is striking out at a 28.2% rate this season but that should not be an issue today against Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a 16% K rate which ranks in the 9th percentile with a whiff rate that is in the 14th percentile. He is pretty much a two-pitch pitcher against RHBs. The two pitches he throws, a fastball and slider, are not great. The fastball is only generating a 16.7% whiff rate with a 12.7% k rate. His slider has a +7 run value. Trout has a 14 run value against eh fastball and 6 run value against the slider. One thing Bundy has going for him is his chase rate which ranks in the 83rd percentile. However, Trout ranks in the 85th percentile there. Trout is 5 for 11 against Bundy with 2 home runs and a double.
Shane McClanahan U 33.5fpt
TB vs TOR
This will be McClanahan’s third start back since retuning from injury. His first one was against this same Toronto team. Usually, these instances benefit the offense. McClanahan could be slightly limited. He hit 80 pitches last start. In the last month, the Blue Jays have a 23.1% K rate and 108 wRC+. McClanahan’s lines are set at 15.5 pitching outs, 1.5 ER, and 5.5 Ks. Giving him 5.1 IP, 1 ER, and 6Ks, he is at 31fpt. Ross Stripling has pitched well recently and combined with a possible limit, it makes it tough for McClanahan to earn the win. He is a +205 to record the win. Toronto’s lineups is full of righties. They need to win so we should see them send out a full strength lineup.
Jon Berti O 6.5fpt
MIA vs WAS
The Marlins will be taking on the Nationals today. Veteran righty, Anibal Sanchez is scheduled to pitch in this one. He has a 15.2% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, and a 4.88 xERA. The one thing that Sanchez does better than average is limiting hard hits. He ranks in the 62nd percentile for hard hit rate. Normally, we want to target pitchers who allow a lot of hard hits. However, Jon Berti only ranks in the 36th percentile for hard hit rate. Berti is not someone who has immense power. He is a typical leadoff hitter who will get on base and steal. This is one of the best stolen base spots possible. Sanchez has struggled with base stealers throughout his career. This year, he has allowed 6 SBs and 0 CS. Both Sanchez and Berti have high walk rates meaning Berti could hit the over on this without even needing a base hit.
Just missed the cut: Grove U 22.5pt, India O 5fpt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
Now for the bonus… If you are new to PrizePicks, they will match your 1st deposit up to $100! You double your money and get a free month of a DFS Army VIP subscription too!
DFS Army Free Month Offer Here
