All 32 NFL teams opened up train camp this week, which means it’s full blown “best shape of his life season.” Even Lenny already shed most of his excess offseason belly.
We already broke down the NFC South, but Julio Jones has since landed in Tampa to chase a ring with Tom and company. Before the signing he could regularly be drafted in the 17th or 18th round. He currently has a 11th round ADP of 130.7, but I’ve seen him go as early as the 9th.
If you were already overweight Julio, it feels pretty good to be getting 5-10 rounds of line value. That said, given Jones’ age and extensive injury history, he is far from a guarantee to smash in Tampa at his current price.
There is a lesson to be learned from how this played out. We can buy players that haven’t signed yet at an obvious discount. Will Fuller, Odell, and Cole Beasley are vets in similar situations who could see their ADPs jump multiple rounds as soon as they sign.
Speaking of ADP, we are using Underdog’s when referenced. They just dropped another $5 Puppy tournament with a million dollar prize pool and 200k up top. We can get you a deposit match of up to $100 with the promo code DFSARMY. Sign up now and draft 20 free Puppy entries using our code
New York Giants
Beat reporters love tweeting out training camp practice videos of players making great catches in shorts, against vanilla defenses that can’t hit the QB. The first day Giants practice produced an impressive collection of such videos. Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney, and Wan’Dale Robinson all had acrobatic touchdowns. If you believe the day one practice videos, Daniel Jones will be leading a reincarnated version of the greatest show on turf.
While this is quite a stretch for a franchise that won 4 games last season, I do expect massive improvement. Having Brian Daboll run the offense as opposed to Jason Garrett/Freddy Kitchen will be the tide that lifts all boats.
In my article highlighting my favorite best ball picks by round, I laid out my reasoning for stocking up on Saquon in the 3rd. He’s looked fantastic in camp and that price is long gone. He currently has a mid-2nd round ADP of 17.4. Our old friend Alan Seslowsky thinks he’ll be going in late first by September.
Kadarius Toney had a rookie season marred by inconsistent playing time and nagging injury, but he was electric when healthy. Underdog’s NFL account tweeted out some encouraging stats via @Sportsinfo_SIS and ESPN’s Jordan Raanan. Of all wide receivers with at least 40 targets, Toney ranked 13th in yards per route run at 2.2 and 1st in broken plus missed tackle percentage with an outstanding 46.2. He was targeted on 28.9 % of route runs, which was 8th best of any WR in the league.
Granted, it comes in a small sample size, but you are not going to find another WR with these kind of metrics going in the late 7th (81.6 ADP).
As impressive as Toney and Barkley have been, Peter King writes that rookie Wan’Dale Robinson has been the star of camp. They have even given him some work out of the backfield. I was a bit skeptical as to whether the diminutive Robinson could succeed at the NFL level, but the new brain trust seems determined to get the ball in the hands of their second round pick. I am scooping him up every chance I get at his current 16th round (182.2) ADP.
If I’m high on all his weapons, it would only make sense that I’m overweight on the Giant QB. Daniel Jones goes off that board as QB22 in the 14th round, right between Matt Ryan and Mac Jones. I prefer Danny Dimes to those pocket passers. He’s rushing ability gives him a ceiling they don’t possess. Jones is a fine option as a QB 2 or 3 in best ball or super flex.
The Cowboys receiver room is the Fresh Prince meme, with Ceedee Lamb in the role of Will Smith looking around to see where everyone went. Amari Cooper is in Cleveland. Michael Gallup will miss multiple games to start the season recovering from and ACL, and James Washington just fractured his foot.
Ceedee has the potential for a target share as high as any receiver in the league. It feels a bit uncomfortable taking him at an ADP of 13.9 overall because he’s yet to produce at a level that justifies it. I am not scared off. In fantasy football, if you need to see it first before acting, you are going to be too late.
Dak and Ceedee is an easy stack to make. Prescott has been falling a bit as his weapons disappear around him. He is currently the QB11 with an ADP of 88.9. He’s going more than a full round after Trey Lance, who I like, but will likely still have some growing pains in a run first offense.
Rookie 3rd round pick Jalen Tolbert is getting steamed, as he now has a clear path to starting. He currently goes in the 11th round with an ADP of 131.0. Early in the draft season he could be had a good 4 rounds or so later. I’m not taking him as much as I did a month ago, but have no problem adding Tolbert as the third piece of a Dallas stack.
He is a veteran running back, going in the 4th round, with a ton of careers carries, coming off an injury slowed season, with an impressive young backup. I am describing the type of RB dead zone back that we desperately try to avoid. I am also describing Zeke Elliott. That said, I am starting come around on taking him at ADP (39.5).
This quote from Jerry Jones on the NFL Network demonstrates Dallas’ commitment to Zeke. Jerry may be a crazy old bastard, but he does have the final word on all things Cowboys.
Zeke apparently looks great in camp, fully recovered from the PCL sprain that plagued him last season. The Cowboys also want to use Pollard more in the slot, which would mean less carries stolen from Elliott.
Let’s just say you started a draft with Chase, Deebo, and Mike Williams in the first 3 rounds. I don’t hate grabbing Zeke in the late 4th as your RB one.
Dalton Schultz is reliable TE who will see targets, but he’s going too high. I don’t think he’s a special athlete and can’t justify taking him in the 6th round when players like Elijah Moore, Drake London, and Joe Burrow are usually still available.
Jalen Hurts has long been a DFS Army favorite. Hurts was on pace to be a top five fantasy QB last year before injuring his ankle. I think his ADP of 64.3 is fair. He goes right in between Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow, which is exactly where I’d have him ranked.
I’m getting some Hurts shares at cost, especially when I take his (surprising considering they’ve never previously played together) best friend A.J. Brown in the 3rd. Brown’s ability to create yards after the catch should be an ideal match for Hurts, who struggles with his accuracy on the deep ball.
The best value on the Eagles may be DeVonta Smith, going at pick 72.0 on the round 6/7 turn. It is an interesting exercise to compare Smith with his former Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle. Both were productive as their teams’ WR one as rookies. Both franchises gave up significant assets to trade for and pay star receivers (Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown). The market, weirdly in my opinion, only seems to be penalizing Smith. Waddle still has an ADP of 37.8. I really don’t see a reason for the 35 spot discrepancy.
I can’t do the Miles Sanders thing again. I think he’s a talented back and I’ve drafted way too much of him over the last two seasons. Multiple coaching staffs in Philadelphia have proven that they will not give him a 3 down role. They are committed to the committee. There is a better chance of the Eagles signing a dust bucket like Jordan Howard off the street to further syphon carries, than Sanders getting the full bell cow treatment. I much prefer Kenny Gainwell at pick 149.0 over Sanders at 81.3.
The Washington Whatever They Are Called These Days are probably the least fun team in the league. Bad name, bad owner, bad stadium, nothing overly attractive from a fantasy perspective.
I could essentially copy my Miles Sanders paragraph and paste in Antonio Gibson’s name. We are a long way from the DC CMC talk of last offseason. I actually think he has the talent to be an RB one, but he will not get the chance. Washington dropped the bag for J.D. McKissic, who had one foot out the door to Buffalo. They then drafted 6’1”, 228 pound bruiser, Brian Robinson Jr, in the 3rd round to potentially take the short yardage and goal line work.
These obvious threats to his usage have caused Gibson’s ADP to slip to 77.1, but I still don’t find myself getting many shares. I just don’t see the ceiling/upside case for him in a bad offense, with vultures looming on 3rd down and the goal line.
Terry McLaurin got a big $71 million extension to stay in the nation’s capital. I don’t mind his 4th round (40.0) ADP, but I still don’t find myself getting much McLaurin. The problem is that he goes in the same range as Hollywood Brown, Allen Robinson, and Gabe Davis, who all have much more attractive stacking partners. When you are on the clock and splitting hairs, do you take the guy you can stack Carson Wentz, or Josh Allen/Matt Stafford/Kyler Murray?
The Commanders (wow, it feels weird to type that, like I’m doing XFL preview or something) that I have the most shares of is Jahan Dotson. He is the forgotten first round WR draft pick. Dotson was someone that I liked a lot pre draft. Penn State wide receivers often come into the league ready to contribute. He has been getting rave reviews in camp. If opposing defenses focus on McLaurin, the rookie should be able to do more than enough to justify his 12th round (139.9 ADP) cost.
We are only a day out from the Hall of Fame Game. Kind of real football is upon us. If you want to degen that Showdown slate DFS Army will have you covered. In fact, they’ve got you covered for everything NFL, and DFS in general. Sign up for VIP access now, then join me later in the week to break down another division.