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Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce has been the story of Texans camp and a flag plant for many on the DFS Army staff. Brandon Adam has been consistently pumping him since the pre-draft period. The rookie 4th round pick is my highest owned player on Underdog at about 30%. I was happy with that number until I heard The Geek tell Flex Shane on the Bold Calls Podcast that he has 100% Pierce exposure in best ball.
The good news is that if you’ve been consuming our content, you are probably overweight Dameon Pierce at a great price. The bad news is that there are no more discounts. In the last two BBM3 drafts I did he went in the 7th round, ahead of names like Dak Prescott, Trey Lance, Russell Wilson, Kadarius Toney, Drake London, Christian Kirk, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tony Pollard.
Taking a young, talented RB in 10-12th rounds, who only has to beat out Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead, had been a no brainer. It is not as easy of a call at the new price. If you look the names above, there is now some real opportunity cost to taking Dameon Pierce. I’m not saying you can’t draft him at his current ADP (92.6), but the decision is much more build dependent. Will he be more useful to you than a QB1 or WR3?
Brandon Cooks (ADP 52.1) seems to have moved past his early career concussion issues. He posted back to back seasons of 1037 yards with 6 TDs in 2021 and 1150 with 6 TDs in 2020. This consistent production is fine where he goes in the 5th round, but I usually prefer to bet on the upside for Bateman or Godwin, who both go a few picks later.
The two Texans (aside from Pierce) that I am drafting the most are WR Nico Collins (ADP 146.7) and TE Brevin Jordan (ADP 194.7). Both showed flashes as rookies on a bad team and have had good second year camps. The unfortunate illness of John Mechie only decreases their competition for playing time and targets. Reports have even surfaced that the tight end Jordon could see significant work in the slot.
Aug 20, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) rushes with the ball during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars
I am banking on a major year two leap for Trevor Lawrence. After a disappointing rookie campaign it is easy to forget that he was considered a once a decade type prospect on the level of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Doug Peterson is a Super Bowl winning head coach, who at a minimum, knows how to run an NFL offense and locker room. The bar isn’t set very high for him to provide a massive upgrade over the walking dumpster fire that was Urban Meyer’s tenure.
People mocked the Christian Kirk (ADP 79.0) and Zay Jones’ (ADP 182.4) contracts big time over pays. Truthfully, they had to over pay to get them to come to Jacksonville and both have look great this preseason. The extra zeroes on their game checks doesn’t change the fact that they are substantially better than anyone Lawrence was throwing to last year. I do not hesitate to draft either as a stacking partner with the young Jags QB.
Trevor Lawrence is a solid value at QB18, ADP 140.6. He goes a full two rounds after QB15 Kirk Cousins. While he may not be as safe a pick as the Minnesota veteran, I believe Lawrence provides a similar ceiling. He goes a few picks behind QB16 Tua and QB17 Justin Fields. In a vacuum (stack agnostic), I’d take Lawrence over either. Fields in playing behind what might be the worst offensive line in the league and Tua is two bad games away from the crowd chanting for Teddy Two Gloves.
Travis Etienne has seen a slight dip in the recent days as it becomes more likely that James Robinson will surprisingly be available week one. Etienne’s current ADP of 36.3 means that he can generally be had on the round 3/4 turn. It is a great story that Robinson will be recovered enough from a torn Achilles to play at the start of the season, but that does not mean that he will be effective. I am betting on the talent of Etienne, his explosiveness in the passing game, and chemistry developed with Lawrence at Clemson. James Robinson was a solid, blue collar RB before the injury, but he is still an undrafted signing of a prior regime. I was already overweight Etienne and I am looking to buy more on this small dip.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor is the first player off the board with an ADP of 1.5. If I had the first pick in one of my 12 team home leagues, I’d probably take Taylor and call it a day. In these large field Best Ball tournaments where you have to beat over 450,000 teams on Underdog or 830,000 on DraftKings, I’ll assume the injury risk with McCaffrey in favor of the higher upside. In JT’s brilliant 2021 season, he scored 360.6 fantasy points over 16 games (full PPR). In CMC’s career best 2019 season scored an unimaginable 471.2 points over the same 16 games. At their peak, McCaffrey is almost 7 points per game better than Taylor. I’m certainly not fading Taylor. I am taking him when I get the 2 spot and CMC is off the board. I currently have about 3x as much McCaffrey as Taylor in Best Ball and I am fine with that ratio.
My highest owned receiver on Underdog is Alec Pierce. It is kind of a weird coincidence that both my highest owned RB and WR are rookies named Pierce. I am not mad about it though, I like both players pre-draft, loved both of their landing spots, and have read nothing but positive reports on each throughout camp.
Robert Schmitz made an interesting and surprising physical comparison of Alec Pierce with DK Metcalf. Pierce should start from day one opposite Michael Pittman, has 2nd round draft capital, and reasonable 14th round ADP of 166.6.
There no such ADP discount on Pittman who goes off the board in the early 3rd at pick 27.5. The upgrade from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan should help Pittman improve on his already solid 2021 totals of 1085 yards and 6 TDs. I don’t have a ton of Pittman because he goes in the same range as Cortland Sutton, Mike Williams, and Tee Higgins, players with whom I prefer their QBs as stacking options. Michael Pittman is one of those players that I really like and it scares me that I haven’t drafted enough of.
Tennessee Titans
Treylon Burks is the Titan of whom I have by far the highest ownership percentage. This is a bit troubling considering how rough his rookie training camp has been. He’s had asthma/conditioning issues, trouble earning first team snaps, and his coach constantly seems to be dogging him to reporters. I think some of these concerns are legitimate and some of them are a product of Vrabel being a hardo who gets off on making a rookie “earn it.”
Even with Burks’ struggles, I still can’t help taking him at his current ADP of 100.1. He goes right after his dusty teammate Robert Woods who is coming off ACL surgery, and right before veteran Tylers, Lockett and Boyd. Perhaps I am suffering from take-lock, but I still think when the fantasy playoffs are in full swing, Burks will have more upside than these old dudes going in the same range.
Derrick Henry cut this funny promo for Yahoo making fun of zero RB drafters, but I am still underweight. He’s 28-years-old, has over 1400 career carries (2nd to only Zeke for active RBs), he isn’t really involved in the passing game and goes in the mid-1st round with an ADP of 7.8. If the Big Dog stays healthy and crushes this year, I’ll be happy for him, but I will likely be a bad outcome for my Best Ball advance rate.
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